India-Pakistan Talks - 2010

[karan.1970]

You are right, India has certainly been increasing support for terrorists etc. in Baluchistan. However, from what I have gathered in discussions with officers - in particular a Brigadier stationed in Quetta - the situation has normalized over the last year+. The 'key' fomentors have been neutralized and the very substantial recent economic package for Baluchistan has allowed the administration to prevent the 'miscreants' from leveraging the local population in any significant way.

On the other hand, I think the relative stability in J&K was only achieved after Pakistan and India went down the talks route in the Musharraf era and Pakistan exercised its influence to stabilise things across the LoC. Given that this period of calm coincided with an increase of foreign support for insurgents in FATA and some parts of Baluchistan, I think many in the Pakistani establishment are of the view that the gloves might as well be taken off.

Also, logistically, I think it will become well nigh impossible for support to be provided to anti-state elements in Baluchistan and FATA once the Afghan situation has sufficiently progressed in the direction it is going in. Pakistan will calculate most likely, that the ability for 'pressure' to be exerted on it in Baluchistan and FATA is going to be significantly lessened in the emerging Afghan scenario...

Its a matter of debate whether Pakistan was actually reducing tensions in J&K or was it the result of being otherwise occupied in FATA etc. Whether that occupation was due to India cranking up pressure or was more indegenous, is something which is again pretty speculative. However in my view, the situation in NWFP is far from over and is more on lines of USA's declared success in Afg some 5 years back.

From an Afg perspective, India has zero exit barrier. If the situation goes down the way Pakistan is hoping for, the cost to India is negligable (some $1 billion of investment). However on the other hand, if it does not go down that way, Pakistan will be in a spot of trouble to say the least.. And if India decides to continue with the approach of morally supporting Balochistan, there can be multiple replacements for Afg..

Same applies to the IWT. India today holds the cards and can dance around the provisions of the treaty and its legal modalities till decades to come.

In my view, the GoI is also not too much in favor of open talks and is doing this for optics only and will use the above cards to to try and get Pakistan move from its stand on Kashmir.

I think the Indian establishment decided to take off the gloves after 26/11.

One thing is for sure though. There is a lot of hurt in the near future for common folks in India and Pakistan while the 2 states will try and turn the screws on each other

 

[ramu]

One thing is for sure though. There is a lot of hurt in the near future for common folks in India and Pakistan while the 2 states will try and turn the screws on each other

On the back of what you said, an article on rediff claims that talks will yield no results. I would like to hear what my Pakistan friends have to say on this. I can't paste links for some reason. Please search in google for "peace with pakistan chasing mirage"

 

[karan.1970]

I can't paste links for some reason. Please search in google for "peace with pakistan chasing mirage"

here you go

Peace with Pakistan: Chasing a mirage: Rediff.com India News

 

[TechLahore]

here you go

Peace with Pakistan: Chasing a mirage: Rediff.com India News

It is interesting to me that the colonel brings up textbooks, casting them as the sole source of information pakistanis have had about India, while he conveniently fails to understand that Pakistan has pursued a completely open media policy for as long as I can remember. We used to get doordarshan broadcasts in Lahore when I was growing up, and the GoP never jammed or banned these broadcasts. Interestingly, recently India installed jammers to block Pakistani cell phone signals... But that's another story.

I read these textbooks too and, other than a few things mentioned therein that could be approached from a more historically neutral perspective, they aren't what the colonel imagines them to be. But the real point here is that anyone who believes that even the poorest Pakistani has no access to diverse sources of information, covering all manner of different perspectives, is living in the land of make belief. It is amazing to me that so many Indians can be brainwashed with this 'pakistani textbook' propaganda, not realizing that Indian news and tv channels have been available in Pakistan for decades. We disagree with you after having heard your views out in full. Why is that so hard to stomach?

But at any rate, the colonel has nothing to worry about. Peace is nowhere on the horizon.

 

[karan.1970]

But at any rate, the colonel has nothing to worry about. Peace is nowhere on the horizon.

Unfortunately l'll have to agree here....

 

[Xeric]

What i find funny is that how conveniently some here can segregate very intermingled issues from indo-Pak talks. And then they go a step further-add Balochistan to the discussion.

Kashmir-terrorism-water is all so tightly mixed up that they cant be discussed in isolation. i must applaud Pakistan's stance to show courage and put a condition on these talks, or else these would have been just another futile exercise whereby india celebrating it by showing, 'hey look, we offered to talk, but Pakistan backed out'

 

[karan.1970]

i must applaud Pakistan's stance to show courage and put a condition on these talks, or else these would have been just another futile exercise whereby india celebrating it by showing, 'hey look, we offered to talk, but Pakistan backed out'

I doubt much will come out of these talks. Will be a miracle even if the 2 sides agree to the topics of discussion...

wrt your last line, I think that has a high probability of happening. The reason is that India will not back down from the kashmir stand and niether will Pakistan...

The problem is that India has come to terms with the Pakistan driven problems in Kashmir and the Pakistan part of Kashmir, but Pakistan has not and is still not gotten over the idea of getting Kashmir from India.

 

[Xeric]

I doubt much will come out of these talks. Will be a miracle even if the 2 sides agree to the topics of discussion...

wrt your last line, I think that has a high probability of happening. The reason is that India will not back down from the kashmir stand and niether will Pakistan...

The problem is that India has come to terms with the Pakistan driven problems in Kashmir and the Pakistan part of Kashmir, but Pakistan has not and is still not gotten over the idea of getting Kashmir from India.

What do you exactly want to suggest?

Probably that Pakistan should forget indian-occupied-Kashmir just because india amended its holy constitution and rejected an international decree, but on the other hand india can suggest, do and propose whatever suits her. Voila!

india has not exactly 'come to terms with Pakistan driven problems' as no such thing exists. Indeed, india has kneeled to the freedom movement that has been there since the last 6 decades. An indication to this was the recent offer from india to militants (read freedom fighters) to 'surrender' while india would offer them amenity.

Well coming back to the topic, until india shows a legit stand on the water issue and upholds the IWT to its essence and it shed off its stubbornness over Kashmir and come to the table with an open mind and the will to resolve the issue, things cant move any further. We cant just keep on solving india's problems by talking them out and leave the issues that are our lifeline just because some indians think talks should be furthered on a step-by-step basis.

 

[kallol]

Brothers from Pakistan,

Considering the fact that neither side is willing to move from their respective stated position (further land negotiation), the talks & solutions will always remain unfruitful.

If this is the situation in the foreseeable future, what will Pakistan do ?

1. Will it continue to make the Kashmir as the priority number 1

2. Adjust the economy according to the above priority ? That is bulk of it towards defence.

3. Continue nurturing strategic assets like the so called freedom fighters and Non state actors ?

If this is the case best wishes to you and your country. Thought Pakistan would take a leaf out of China.

Will you let one issue of Kashmir to decide the fate of Pakistan ? Considering the fact that there are several regions in Pakistan (Tribal areas and Balochistan) which were not under central governance till late, will you still want to tie your fate to Kashmir ?

India has accepted that it cannot get what Pakistan has and moved on with the other priorities.

We can only feel sorry for the people of Pakistan (our blood brothers and sisters) as Pakistan moves towards a more fundamentalist society. We fervently hope this is not true.

From a neutral point of view I can say, Pakistan has let Saudi Arabia, USA and China to use it as a pawn for their own interests though they themselves have different policies.

Hope you succeed.

Best wishes and love.

 

[TechLahore]

1. Will it continue to make the Kashmir as the priority number 1

Yes.

2. Adjust the economy according to the above priority ? That is bulk of it towards defence.

We have had an effective deterrent in place without significantly exceeding the historic % of GDP dedicated to defence. We can easily sustain this level of spend and are stretching our dollar by collaborating with the Chinese and Turks and building much of what we need locally.

Even if there was complete peace, given the region we live in, it is hard to see how the defence budget would diminish by more than 1% of GDP. This won't impact the rest of the economy in a make or break way.

3. Continue nurturing strategic assets like the so called freedom fighters and Non state actors ?

India and Pakistan have both supported, funded and encouraged violent activities within each others borders. Your support for insurgents in FATA and Baluchistan should not be forgotten when you ask the above question. Until Kashmir is resolved, there will be plenty of reasons for India and Pakistan to keep at each others throats.

Will you let one issue of Kashmir to decide the fate of Pakistan ?

Until Kashmir is resolved, it will remain the key issue between India and Pakistan and a potential nuclear flashpoint that will destroy global security. That is just a fact.

With regard to the FATA issue you raised, we know insurgents there are being assisted by Indian intelligence and assets in Afghanistan and that weapons are being supplied to them using the consulates and other infrastructure India has developed across our western border over the last few years. But after the recent Pakistan Army operations and the direction Afghanistan is going in, this nuisance will soon be put out of commission entirely. Not too concerned about this...

We can only feel sorry for the people of Pakistan (our blood brothers and sisters) as Pakistan moves towards a more fundamentalist society. We fervently hope this is not true.

Yes, it is not true. You might have forgotten but it was not Pakistan that elected a right-wing religious party to government. This happened with the BJP in India. Hafiz Saeed is not CM of Sindh, but Modi did get re-elected as CM after he presided over the mass slaughter of thousands of muslims.

But coming back to the topic of feeling sorry... we too feel great sympathy for the people of India who face back breaking poverty worse than what we have ever had to face, and who are afflicted with a greater number of ethnic divisions and regular outbreaks of Gujrat-like genocides. And as if these crushing problems were not enough, brothers and sisters in India must also deal with a massive insurgency spread across a wider area than what Pakistan has had to face in the worst of times, combined with existential military threats from two sides. It is indeed a sorry state of affairs and we extend our sympathies in this regard.

From a neutral point of view I can say, Pakistan has let Saudi Arabia, USA and China to use it as a pawn for their own interests though they themselves have different policies.

Your concern is truly touching. But your advice notwithstanding, I think we're quite comfortable setting our own diplomatic priorities.

Good luck to you!

 

[DavyJones]

@TechLahore - I suggest you stop crowing about PA "achievements" against terrorism. There is still time left to see if they were successful in beating back the Taliban. And stop comparing the Kashmir situation to Pak army ops. India needs more troops to guard the border against infiltration. Most of the Indian troops are posted near the LoC.

 

[DavyJones]

What India wants from the talks -
1. Reduced tensions with Pakistan. Renewal of people to people contact.
2. Showing US that it's doing it's bit to remove Pak's excuse of "we need troops to face the Indians"
3. Concrete action on Kashmiri terrorists before any talks on Kashmir. Talks on Kashmir to exclude territory exchange (that will be suicidal)
4. Improvement of trade relations and trying to push soft borders between the two Kashmirs and Punjab areas.

On a personal note - I feel Pak and India should concentrate on their economies rather than Kashmir. Is Kashmir more important or attacks in Karachi, Mumbai, Delhi and Lahore ? Are the poor people in our subcontinent not important ?
Kashmiri people are quite well off and living happily

 

[TechLahore]

@TechLahore - I suggest you stop crowing about PA "achievements" against terrorism. There is still time left to see if they were successful in beating back the Taliban. And stop comparing the Kashmir situation to Pak army ops. India needs more troops to guard the border against infiltration. Most of the Indian troops are posted near the LoC.

I suggest you keep your suggestions to yourself.

Pakistan is guarding a longer border with Afghanistan with a sixth the number of troops you have in IoK. The Indian Army numbers in Kashmir make Kashmir the most militarized location on the planet and constitute a hold and secure force.

Unfortunately, the level of violence in Kashmir is on the increase again. You must have seen the report about the recent killing of a young child by Indian security forces and the subsequent protests... Prospects for India aren't looking particularly rosy in Afghanistan either. And I won't even get into the Naxalite situation.

So while I understand the frustration, please direct it towards the failure of your own security strategy and foreign policy.

 

[Xeric]

@TechLahore - I suggest you stop crowing about PA "achievements" against terrorism.

Are you still in doubts?

May be you need to do a little search in our Pakistan's War section.

Oh and yes, we didnt only have cleaned the mess on our side but also became the pivot for the american success.

There is still time left to see if they were successful in beating back the Taliban.

Yes, still we have to do alot, but by what we have already achaived we and the rest of the world (less india ofcourse) are very much confident that the result would be similar if not better.

And stop comparing the Kashmir situation to Pak army ops. India needs more troops to guard the border against infiltration. Most of the Indian troops are posted near the LoC.

If 'most of the troops' and the high tech gadgetry that you have in place at the LoC has failed to stop the (virtual) 'infiltration', i really doubt another hike would succeed in doing so. May be you need to fence the entire IB

 

[DavyJones]

@TechLahore - I will gladly keep my suggestions to myself if you stop exhibiting that you have little knowledge of ground situation in Kashmir or Afghanistan.
Just a few qus :
1. Is there zero infiltration across the Pak Afghan border ? In fact most attacks on NATO forces originate from Pak and the attackers sneak back into Pak after the attacks.. how many instances should I quote for you to be convinced that your forces are not adequate along the Afghan border. Off course since the attacks are on NATO and not yourselves you don;t really care about that.
2. The unfortunate shooting of the Kashmiri boy. You have bombings in Dir, Karachi, Balochistan. Shootings in Swat, Peshawar - need i say more ? Do you know the circumstances of the shooting - was it accidental or Caught in some crossfire ? Stop jumping to convenient conclusions. The investigation is on - BSF jawan involved is with the police. How many human rights cases has Pak prosecuted in it's history ? How many caught Taliban men were executed in Swat ?