Balochistans case is no way near to East Pakistan. There are small incidents which have been shown as a so called freedom movement. India has more to lose if you ignite this war. History tells you that your 1971 adventure didnt become beneficial for you as you still have hostile Bangladesh in your East.
There are more freedom movements in India as compared to just one so called in Balochistan (which is without public support) and your these acts will increase your problems from West, East, North and South.
I doubt your agents can survive for a longer period in Afghanistan as they already are being eliminated by the real Talibans.
The Bangledeshi government is still rubbing its nose at indias feet, and generally there are very few voices that oppose a near amalgamation of Bangladesh with India. Simply because there are too many commons than uncommon.. and unlike us, Bangladesh has a sizable hindu population which adores India.
The Baloch movement is very real..
I recommend a read..
possibly posted before.
Remarks by Selig S. Harrison, Director, Asia Program, Center for International Policy.
Selig Harrison on Why Pakistan was created and what Jinnah offered the British and Nehru did not.
Delivered at the Baluchistan International Conference, Washington , D.C. , Nov. 21, 2009
Selig Harrison
I am going to start with a citation from the scripture. Scripture for me on the subject of Pakistan is an important book called the Shadow of the Great Game: the Untold Story of Indias Partition, by Narendra Singh Sarila, a retired Indian diplomat who was the ADC to Mountbatten [Vice roy of India]. He got unprecedented access to the British archives. In his book he presents detailed, definitive evidence showing that as early as march, 1945, Winston Churchill and the British general staff decided that partition was necessary for strategic reasons. They deliberately set out to create Pakistan because Jinnah had promised to provide military facilities and Nehru refused to do so.
This is the key to understanding why Pakistan is so dysfunctional. Its an artificial political entity. The British put together five ethnic groups that had never before co-existed in the same body politic historically. The Bengalis were the biggest. They outnu mb ered all of the other four co mb inedthe Punjabis, the Pashtuns, the Baluch and the Sindhis. Five became four of course when Bangladesh seceded [in 1971].
The army bequeathed by the British to Pakistan was overwhelmingly dominated by Punjabi officers and soldiers. So with the Bengalis gone the Baluch, Pashtuns and Sindhis have faced a cruel historical irony. For centuries they had resisted the incursions of the Moghuls into their territories, but now they find themselves ruled by Punjabis who invoke the grandeur of the Moghuls to justify their power.
The Baluch never wanted to be in Pakistan . They had to be forcibly incorporated in 1948 by a Pakistan occupation army. The army still has cantonments located all over Baluchistan to cope with an insurgency that is periodically suppressed and then soon revives.
Every time it is suppressed theres a legacy of hatred that explains why the Baluch fighters of the next insurgency are so highly motivated. Id like to recall today the fighting that raged between 1974 and 1978 to convey an idea of why the Baluch of today are so highly motivated. More than 80,000 Pakistani troops roamed the province at the height of the war.
By July 1974, the guerrillas had been able to cut off most of the main roads linking Baluchistan with surrounding provinces and to disrupt periodically the key Sibi-Harnai rail link, thereby blocking coal shipments from Baluch areas to the Punjab . In the Marri area, attacks on drilling and survey operations effectively stymied Pakistani oil exploration. Army casualties soared as the frequency and effectiveness of a mb ushes and raids on military encampments increased.
At this juncture, the Pakistan Air Force was called in. Helicopters were used not only to ferry troops but also to conduct co mb at operations in mountainous areas. Initially, the Pakistanis employed the relatively clumsy Chinook helicopters that they had received from the United States under their own military aid program, fitting them with guns for co mb at use. But in mid-1974, Iran sent thirty U.S.-supplied Huey Cobra helicopters, many of them manned by Iranian pilots. The Huey Cobra was developed during the Vietnam war and had devastating firepower, including a six-barrel, 20-millimeter automatic cannon with a firing rate of 750 rounds per minute. Until the Huey Cobras arrived, the only way that the Pakistani forces could block off guerrilla escape routes after an encounter was by concentrating troops at key points on roads and trails. That tactic rarely worked, since the Baluch had much greater knowledge of the terrain. Once the Pakistanis were backed up by six or more Huey Cobra gunships, however, special patrols could move in while the helicopters sprayed gunfire in the area ahead of them, slowly herding the guerrillas into ever-shrinking sanctuaries. Even when they sought to hide in previously secure mountain redoubts, the Baluch were often flushed out by the ubiquitous, readily maneuverable Huey Cobras.
The turning point in the war came in a brutal six-day battle at Chamalang in the Marri region, which helps to explain the continuing intensity of Baluch bitterness toward Pakistan today. Every summer, the Marri nomads converge on the broad pasture lands of the Chamalang valley, one of the few rich grazing areas in all of Baluchistan . In 1974, many of the men stayed in the hills to fight with the guerrillas, but the women, children, and older men streamed down from the mountains with their flocks and set up their black tents in a sprawling, fifty-square-mile area. Chamalang, they thought, would be a haven from the incessant bo mb ing and strafing attacks in the highlands. As the fighting gradually reached a stalemate, however, the army decided to take advantage of this concentration of Marri families as a means of luring the guerrillas down from the hills. The Pakistani officers calculated correctly that attacks on the tent villages would compel the guerrillas to come out into the open in defense of their families.
After a series of preliminary skirmishes in surrounding areas, the army launched operation Chamalang on Septe mb er 3, 1974, using a co mb ined assault by ground and air forces. Interviews with Pakistani officers and Baluch participants indicate that some 15,000 Marris were massed at Chamalang. Guerrilla units formed a huge protective circle around their families and livestock. They fought for three days and nights, braving artillery fire and occasional strafing attacks by F-86 and mirage fighter planes and Huey Cobras. Finally, when the Baluch ran out of ammunition, they did what they could to regroup and escape.
Today, the ISI continues to round up Baluch and Sindhis without giving them access to lawyers and courts despite the advent of the so-called civilian government in Islamabad . More than 900 Baluch and Sindhi activists have disappeared without a trace. I urge you to read the Amnesty International report, denying the undeniable: enforced disappearances in Pakistan , which cites chapter and verse on this massive violation of human rights, more than the much publicized disappearances in Pinochets Chile .
By themselves, the Baluch are in a weak position militarily, but they are beginning to forge alliances with Sindhi factions that could become significant. What some of the Baluch and Sindhi leaders are talking about is a sovereign Baluch-Sindhi federation stretching from the Indian border to Iran . The most obvious impediment to this dream of course is the fact that Karachi is right in the middle of the area concerned with a multi-ethnic population. But the Baluch and Sindhis point out that Karachi depends on gas and water pipelines crossing through areas of the surrounding countryside under their control.
An independent Baluch-Sindhi federation would not necessarily conflict with U.S. interests because the Baluch and Sindhi areas are strongholds of secular values and moderate Islam. Most of the Sindhis are Sufis and many of the Baluch are Zikris. They reject the Wahabi and Deobandi brand of Islam pushed by the Sipa-e-Sahaba and other virulently anti-Shia Sunni groups in the Punjab . The Islamist threat is centered in the Punjab where Lashkar-e-Taiba and other hard-core jihadi groups are increasingly strong.
The word debilitating best describes the impact of ethnic tensions on Pakistan . Ethnic tensions will steadily debilitate Pakistan even if it hangs precariously together. Reducing ethnic tensions has been made more difficult by the United States , which has created a Frankenstein by pouring in military aid for the past fifty years. We now confront bloated armed forces that have become a privileged elite and have a vested interest in holding onto power. They smother civilian government in Islamabad and oppose the constitutional reforms necessary to stabilize the federation. The United States should do what it can to strengthen the civilian leadership and encourage a devolution of power but it may be too late.
While I don't agree with many aspects of the article, the Baloch problem has now spread to the Makran community which was erstwhile neutral.. I am myself witness to a whole group of Makrani's boasting of India's support for their cause and gleefully claiming that soon we would need visas to enter Balochistan.
However, the likely hood of a Bangladesh scenario is very little, first and foremost.. there is no nation with borders common to balochistan that supports the movement.. Iran itself is busy with its own Baloch insurgency and will never support them, Most of the Afghan border common with balochistan is dominated by ethinic Pashtun who aren't really going to help.. but it is the only passage by which clandestine activities in Balochistan can be supported..
So while a civil war in Balochistan is possible.. the size of the terrain.. and the general lack of population centre's and the governments control over resources will see such a movement end up in failure..
Eventually, there will be a resentful baloch populous for a while.. which eventually will be absorbed into Pakistani society.