IndoCarib
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Teresita C. Schaffer, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, 21st Century Defense Initiative
The National Bureau of Asian Research
Main Argument:
For Pakistan, the rise of India is a strategic nightmare, while the rise of China is an opportunity to curb Indias advancement and reduce dependence on the United States. Afghanistan sees its ties with India and China, as well as with the U.S., as vehicles for blunting interference by its immediate neighbors, especially Pakistan. Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka generally accept Indias primacy in their region. Bangladesh and Nepal see their ties with China as a way of increasing their freedom of action against India; Sri Lanka sees both India and China as means to emphasize its independence from Western donors.
Policy Implications:
* Indias South Asian neighbors look on India and China with one eye on relations with the U.S. Most of these countries are seeking either to balance a hostile relationship or to hedge against excessive dependency on the U.S. or India.
* India is still the major player in South Asia, and is becoming more active in East Asia.
* Chinas security profile and economic heft in South Asia have risen dramatically in the past decade. Indias economic growth will determine whether New Delhi maintains its influence in its own neighborhood.
* The Indian Ocean is the arena where the India-China rivalry will play out. U.S. strategic goals align well with Indias, and U.S. interests would be well served by treating the Indian Ocean as a single policy space.
* The smaller South Asian countries, especially Sri Lanka, will play a greater role in the dynamics of the Indian Ocean region than traditional U.S. policy would indicate.
India Next Door, China Over the Horizon: The View from South Asia - Brookings Institution
The National Bureau of Asian Research
Main Argument:
For Pakistan, the rise of India is a strategic nightmare, while the rise of China is an opportunity to curb Indias advancement and reduce dependence on the United States. Afghanistan sees its ties with India and China, as well as with the U.S., as vehicles for blunting interference by its immediate neighbors, especially Pakistan. Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka generally accept Indias primacy in their region. Bangladesh and Nepal see their ties with China as a way of increasing their freedom of action against India; Sri Lanka sees both India and China as means to emphasize its independence from Western donors.
Policy Implications:
* Indias South Asian neighbors look on India and China with one eye on relations with the U.S. Most of these countries are seeking either to balance a hostile relationship or to hedge against excessive dependency on the U.S. or India.
* India is still the major player in South Asia, and is becoming more active in East Asia.
* Chinas security profile and economic heft in South Asia have risen dramatically in the past decade. Indias economic growth will determine whether New Delhi maintains its influence in its own neighborhood.
* The Indian Ocean is the arena where the India-China rivalry will play out. U.S. strategic goals align well with Indias, and U.S. interests would be well served by treating the Indian Ocean as a single policy space.
* The smaller South Asian countries, especially Sri Lanka, will play a greater role in the dynamics of the Indian Ocean region than traditional U.S. policy would indicate.
India Next Door, China Over the Horizon: The View from South Asia - Brookings Institution
