‘India might not be able to defend itself from Pakistani missiles’

[Challanger]

Since it appears to be your first day on PDF, I must congratulate you to be here and hope that you remain an active contributor on this Forum.

Everything which seems good in the short run brings many bad results in future.

Indian cold start doctrine has brought tactical nuclear weapons on the table

as for your serious note, Pakistan will continue its aggressive Kashmir Policy till its foreign policy is controlled by other than civilian government. Indians have no doubt about Pakistan persistence and relentless obsession of Kashmir

Thanks for congratulations! But for you: Today is not my first day here. I just deleted my old account because of its user-ID. Anyways!!!

2nd Pakistan's Obsession with Kashmir, you don't know anything. I can't say on the behalf of whole Nation but yes on behalf of Kashmiris in Pakistan (I myself a Kashmiri ) we do not want Indian occupation. Sooner or later it will end. at the same time I don't want to be ruled by corrupt politicians.

Rest grow up and peace

I'm not here to start a war...

India deplyoing BMD, creates doubt in mind of Pakistanis.
i.e
Indians say, their dual layer BMD , has a 98.9% intercept possibility against upto 2500 Km range missile.

Knowing that, Pakistan will have to fire multiple missiles against a single target, at the same time.

But what if, Indians have anticipated this and moved in more interceptor batteries to protect that target.

There is a possibility, all missiles fired at the target will be intercepted.

Here in lies the doubt for Pakistan.

What if all its missiles fired are intercepted , Pakistan would have struck first, but without damaging India, and India nuclear response, which will surely follow , will destroy Pakistan.

Hence Pakistan will be more hesitant , to use the nuclear option, than it would be, if there were no defense shield.

What's the motive behind all this debate? When we both know none of us gonna use these weapons anytime soon. So chill pill... In this time period countries do proxy wars just like both countries are busy nowadays ...

 

[Super Falcon]

Laser technology will be inducted you will see airdefence technology next level

Reihmental of germany
REM system of USA on USS PONC ship

 

[bloo]

If Indians chose to spend their resources on developing anti-ballistic missile technologies, it is their choice. First of all, such technologies are not the monopoly of just a few nations any more. Many commercially available (Russian and Chinese) systems have that capability. One thing that needs to be remembered is that there is no foolproof system that can provide 100% protection against ballistic missiles. Indians love creating hype and boasting their non-existent capabilities. Let them eat uncooked beef. If they want to waste their resources, at Least I have no objections. Coming back to the topic, two factors are crucial in any ballistic missile defense system. First being how much reaction/lead time is available and second how many incoming missiles can presumably be knocked down simultaneously. Both factors are working against Indians. They need to realize that they are not facing just the dumb scud missiles. They will have to knock out much smaller, faster, and smarter re-entry war heads - multiple of them released from one missile, and then volleys of advancing missiles. If they think they can do that, do we care? Probably no. But that should be a matter of serious concern for the international community because the false sense of their capabilities can push Indians into miscalculations that might lead to devastating show down between the two neighbors. We have pretty much knowledge of how much capable Indians are. Their stupidity can deceive them with grave consequences for the globe.

Indeed reaction time does play a factor.
However ballistic systems are not cruise missile systems, they take their time. Land based ballistic missiles have to reach an apogee and do not follow noe flight like cruise missiles, which exposes it to detection systems be it radars or satellites.
The US SBIRS are on place to detect such a preemptive strike from its adversaries. It detects the heat signatures coming from ballistic projectiles in the form of radiation from the warhead or from the high intensity solid fueled rocket engine. Such systems will only evolve in the coming years and don't be surprised if India launches its own SBIRS.
As for how many ABMs are needed to knock down a flurry from pakistan? A lot, but I honestly believe producing ABMs are a lot cheaper than producing IRBMs and/or ICBMs. So you can expect a 1 to 5-10 ratio easily. So much for your volley. In the furture we don't know how many ballistic missiles we will block but Pakistan wont block anything with no ABM, so you can be assured that in any exchange that we just might survive but Pak won't survive in any sort of exchange.
As for MARVs and MIRVs, there have been a steady development of ABMs that engage such missiles high above the atmosphere even during launch phase. Marvs are still limited to how much they can maneuver and the type of manuever it employs(pre-programmed or otherwise) when they are at a certain height and when they are reacquiring the target to get the desired CEP and then there are proximity warheads which blast shotgun like pellets and don't have to get as close to the invader as kinetic kill vehicles do, to counter these marvs as well as ABMs with gimballed tvc. Yes MARVs and MIRVs do provide a challenge but as ABM systems evolve we will see it being less of a factor.
We will never attack you, we never have and we never will, however as you lot know we do end them.
Don't worry these systems are still only budding, and relax we are not going to war tomorrow, hence giving us ample time to develop our defensive and offensive abilities.

 

[war&peace]

He is right in his analysis because no missile defence system is perfect. it is practically impossible to cover all speed ranges, area & altitude, all types of missiles and to do it with 100% efficiency. Technology is advancing on both side of equation ( measures Vs counter measures) . Modern missiles have a lot of measures to dodge the air defences and are constantly getting better.

 

[Scharfschütze]

We should first think about saving Pakistan from our rulers and educate people. Destroying india or killing indians is not what common Pakistani need at this stage. Yes we know how strong we are we can defend ourselves in case of attack. They must be drunk to attack on Pakistan as they know their own capabilities better than us....it will be a suicide of more than Billion people....

 

[SecularNationalist]

This is the most important part of the article, and it does make sense......

To some extent that makes sense but the distance is even shorter between palestine and israel but israel almost stopped all missiles from the other side.Well isreal is yet to deal with high tech cruise missiles or ballistic missiles with stealth tech. like the ones pakistan possess.

 

[Zahoor Raja-Jani]

Since it appears to be your first day on PDF, I must congratulate you to be here and hope that you remain an active contributor on this Forum.

Everything which seems good in the short run brings many bad results in future.

Indian cold start doctrine has brought tactical nuclear weapons on the table

as for your serious note, Pakistan will continue its aggressive Kashmir Policy till its foreign policy is controlled by other than civilian government. Indians have no doubt about Pakistan persistence and relentless obsession of Kashmir

Dear You are wrong if you read history you will come to know that our military leadership is quit soft on Kashmir issue as compared to civilain one.

 

[Justforgags]

How long do you guys think it will take for India to flatten every missile base in Pakistan? When things escalate every Pakistan base will be monitored by not just Indian satellites btw. What do you think the 2 regiments of Brahmos are for on the western flank?
The only way for Pakistan to deliver nukes would be aircraft. And that's what the S400s are for.
And anyone shouting Babur to deliver nukes needs to get his head checked.
Irrespective of how many nukes Pakistan makes you will be able to load up and send out maybe 10 through every mode before every facility is rendered flat. And covering that is what the BMD is for.
When I hear nuclear saturation attack I have a nice giggle to say the least. To co ordinate just a 5 missile salvo will take enormous time and resources starting from mating upto launch and you have to hope Indian SIGINT and ELINT are sleeping during that time.
Pakistan's only hope for a credible delivery system is a nuke sub. And you have to pray that by the time you get one ready, Indian BMD is not mature and deployed.

 

[fitpOsitive]

I am quoting below a passage written in a Pakistani newspaper, Daily Times by Dr Qaisar Rashid. I am not familiar with the previous works of this author but I would like to draw the attention of PDF members on the possible implications on Pakistan as opinioned by this gentleman.


"In this way, there are certain implications for Pakistan regarding India’s anti-ballistic missile defence shield. First, the defence shield has rendered the concept of minimum credible nuclear deterrence — which Pakistan imposed on South Asia through developing and testing its strategic nuclear weapons — insignificant. Secondly, the defence shield has undermined Pakistan’s first nuclear strike competency or option and instead, the defence shield has boosted or even restored India’s second nuclear strike capability. Thirdly, the defence shield has relegated Pakistan to taking refuge once again in its near-abandoned idea of looking for strategic depth in Afghanistan. Fourth, the defence shield gives India some space to maneouvre whenever Pakistan launches its alleged asymmetric war against India. Fifth, the defence shield reinforces the numerical strength of the Indian army and affects the future of Kashmir."

http://dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/18-May-16/indias-anti-ballistic-missile-defence-shield

@nair

he is a veterinary doctor. Dont believe me? Google it.

How long do you guys think it will take for India to flatten every missile base in Pakistan? When things escalate every Pakistan base will be monitored by not just Indian satellites btw. What do you think the 2 regiments of Brahmos are for on the western flank?
The only way for Pakistan to deliver nukes would be aircraft. And that's what the S400s are for.
And anyone shouting Babur to deliver nukes needs to get his head checked.
Irrespective of how many nukes Pakistan makes you will be able to load up and send out maybe 10 through every mode before every facility is rendered flat. And covering that is what the BMD is for.
When I hear nuclear saturation attack I have a nice giggle to say the least. To co ordinate just a 5 missile salvo will take enormous time and resources starting from mating upto launch and you have to hope Indian SIGINT and ELINT are sleeping during that time.
Pakistan's only hope for a credible delivery system is a nuke sub. And you have to pray that by the time you get one ready, Indian BMD is not mature and deployed.

Mary gaey yara...we are hopeless now. What will we do? But we feel strong urge to nuke India, and will nuke India one day for sure..pakka...figuring out other options now. yeah got it , we have one, yeah, we call it PENS(Pigeon Enforced Nuke System).

Why will we nuke India just answer this simple and innocent question.

 

[Politico]

he is a veterinary doctor. Dont believe me? Google it.


Mary gaey yara...we are optionless now. What will we do now? But we will nuke India one day for sure..figuring out other options now.

u think he trained the pigeon spys 4 pakistan ?

 

[fitpOsitive]

u think he trained the pigeon spys 4 pakistan ?

yap ...his Pen name is "Kabootar Khair-Mubarak Mand"

 

[Hellfire]

Does india has satellite to detect bm ???

Short Answer : YES

 

[Viper0011.]

ISLAMABAD: A nuclear expert from Moscow says despite heavy investments in developing anti-ballistic missile systems, India may not be able to fully defend itself in a conflict from strikes by Pakistani missiles.

“Even in 10 years and with the huge budgets that India plans to spend on the development of nuclear weapons and capabilities, it is difficult to imagine it will be able to defend its territory from possible strikes from Pakistan in case of conflict,” said Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Centre’s Non-Proliferation Programme.

This article is bull crap. With the ABM capability India is building (tech from Israel), she should be able to defend herself against majority of the missile attacks. I'd go as high as saying 75-80% of all attacks (depends on India further modernizing this and improving range and detection, and systems). The only exception would be cruise missiles and Hyper-sonic vehicles. Between Barak, Arrow (obviously different Indian variant names) and the third terminal option, this is a VERY potent defensive ABM system in the world.

So the next logical step for Pakistan is now to jump onto building a Hyper sonic platform.

 

[Taimoor Khan]

"Mr Topychkanov said that despite largescale cooperation between India and Israel for the development of a ballistic missile defence system............"



It is nothing more then repainted Israeli/American technology.

When we in Pakistan are going to come to consensus that Israel is working in partnership with India to undermine our interests and cause risks to our national security?

 

[Hellfire]

Don't forget India got Nukes first but still there were disturbance in Kashmir back in 90s..

Why drag Kashmir into everything? Do you know it is not even a dispute as per UN anymore? Your government slept as India got it removed from the UN list of disputes in 2010 and by the time they realised what has happened the issue has become a non-starter for UN.

Anyways ----- there is something called managing level of violence. The game plan is long ..... If you see the Irish movement and how it played out, you will get the idea.

We have the patience, we have the resources and as we come out with BMD and keep investing sufficiently in our defence capabilities and you keep responding at significant costs to your economy trying to match the spending capacity, we are doing to you what US did with USSR, make you expend resources where you need not spend and deprive them from where you need them.

It has more to do with the costs we are inflicting upon you. That is grand strategy, and some costs are being incurred by us too, but proportionally you are paying heavily.

Lastly, something for your consumption, your social fabric is being torn apart as more and more people are embracing hardline religious views. Till 1970s, Pakistan was one of the most modern societies and now slowly it is being strangulated.

I may be wrong, but I doubt that people want radical ideologies to rule them, Pakistanis and Pakistan is not that ... but each day PA and GoP tries to defend itself against these moves, more the radical elements gain strength as subcontinent has illiterates aplenty and when you have ensured instability in Afghanistan and there is free movement of thought process (radicalised) as also people across that border, your society will be influenced and is being influenced.

You are paying high costs ... indeed.