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India loses the plot on the Rohingya issue: Hands the game to China
P K Balachandran, October 27, 2017
Suu Kyi with Bangladesh Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan
India appears to have lost the plot on the Rohingya issue. Despite having a measure of clout both in Bangladesh and Myanmar, and appeals by Dhaka to mediate, New Delhi has been found wanting in terms of ideas and action, with the result, China has stolen the initiative.
It is undoubtedly due to Beijing’s behind-the-scenes efforts that Bangladesh and Myanmar have begun to talk, and talk constructively to determine the fate of an estimated one million displaced Rohingyas, now living in gigantic camps spread over 2000 acres in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh.
Confusion over its relative interests in the two countries; what it should do to contain China; and systemic deficiencies in the decision making process; appear to have resulted in India’s losing the initiative to China.
As a result, China could gain ground in both Bangladesh and Myanmar at India’s expense. China and India both have vital economic and strategic interests in Bangladesh and Myanmar.
It is undoubtedly due to Beijing’s behind-the-scenes efforts that Bangladesh and Myanmar have begun to talk, and talk constructively to determine the fate of an estimated one million displaced Rohingyas.
India sent a fair amount of relief material to the Rohingya refugees. But it did little else to solve the basic issue which had led to the exodus from Myanmar to Bangladesh. New Delhi did not even suggest a way out of the crisis. It was more concerned about preventing the Rohingyas from entering India and throwing out the 40, 000 already in the country.
It was only very recently that External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said in Dhaka that the only way out is to help Myanmar develop Rakhine State economically.
But her solution was way off the mark.
She had missed the point entirely.
The central issue is not economic backwardness, as she believes, but is religious-cum-ethnic. The Myanmarese do not accept the Rohingyas as indigenous nationals but as illegal Bengali Muslim immigrants, who stand in sharp contrast to the majority community in Myanmar –the Myanmarese Buddhists.
The Rohingyas have been denied citizenship though they have a history of settlement in Rakhine State going back to the 12th. Century. They have not only been denied citizenship but have been subjected to movement restrictions. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Prince Zeid has described the exodus from Rakhine into Bangladesh as being the result of “textbook ethnic cleansing. ”
Dhaka called for mediation by India and China. But while China responded, India did not, for fear of annoying its new-found friends in Myanmar.
China sent its Special Envoy on Asian Affairs, Sun Guoxiang, to Dhaka. India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was also in Dhaka for two days but she was more interested in the January 2019 parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, keen as India was in seeing that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) contests the elections and not boycott it as it did in 2014. India wants to be able to play one Bangladeshi party against the other to promote its interests within the framework of parliamentary politics.
Sun Guoxiang, China’s Special Envoy
Dhaka called for mediation by India and China. But while China responded, India did not, for fear of annoying its new-found friends in Myanmar.
Significantly, Swaraj did not speak about the Rohingyas until she was asked to.
On the other hand, China has always had a clear cut and consistent policy on the Rohingyas. It has disapproved the practice of pointing fingers at one of the parties to the conflict. It has argued that international intervention will only complicate matters and has called for bilateral talks between Myanmar and Bangladesh to solve the issue between themselves.
China has had no suggestions to give to the two countries, but has only wanted them to thrash out the issues untrammeled by fears of international intervention.
International intervention by the West and the UN is anathema to the Myanmar military which actually rules the country.
And this view is shared by Suu Kyi also, because she looks at the Rohingyas in the same way as the military does.
The threat of international intervention in the form of economic sanctions also worried Myanmar, which is just about coming out of isolation to exploit its immense natural resources for its own growth and prosperity in a highly globalized world.
The US is toughening its stand on the Rohingya issue and is contemplating targeted sanctions.
The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) is going to meet the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly which deals with human rights issues.
The UN Human Rights Council is to take up the issue in November.
In a way, Bangladesh too is wary of a broad spectrum international intervention under the aegis of the UN as it could vitiate bilateral relations with India and China. It also does not want anybody and everybody to come with relief fearing infiltration by intelligence agencies, saboteurs and Islamic radicals.
It is said that a leading Muslim organization from the UK had made a very attractive offer and was given permission to provide relief in the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps. But it was sent packing in a week because its staff were radicalizing the refugees in night classes held in the camps.
10-Point Program
It was apparently due to China’s efforts that Kyaw Tint Swe, Minister for the Office of the State Counselor, visited Dhaka earlier in October. Following that, this week, the Bangladesh Home Minister, Mohammad Asaduzzaman Khan visited Myanmar as the head of a 10-member delegation and had an hour’s talks with Suu Kyi.
As a result, a 10-point program to take back the one million Rohingyas who had fled Myanmar has been adopted.
According to the Myanmar news portal Mizzima the bilateral agreement envisages “stopping immediately entry by Myanmar nationals into Bangladesh and repatriation of refugees at the earliest date and restoring normalcy in Rakhine Region for their resettlement.”
Both sides also agreed to finish by November, the formation of the Joint Working Committee, which was announced in Dhaka early in October.
This is exactly what Dhaka has been wanting. It has achieved a breakthrough, as it were. On Wednesday Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Md. Shahidul Haque met Chinese Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang. He told the media later: “China is concerned. They believe this is not good for this region. They want the issue to be settled peacefully. They want it to be settled bilaterally. ”
The Foreign Secretary said that he updated the Chinese official, who had last visited Bangladesh in April this year. He told Sun that the total number of Rohingyas in Bangladesh has now gone up to one million.
Asked if Myanmar has agreed to take back the Rohingyas any time soon, Haque said: “We are optimistic.”
https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/...n-the-rohingya-issue-hands-the-game-to-china/
P K Balachandran, October 27, 2017
Suu Kyi with Bangladesh Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan
India appears to have lost the plot on the Rohingya issue. Despite having a measure of clout both in Bangladesh and Myanmar, and appeals by Dhaka to mediate, New Delhi has been found wanting in terms of ideas and action, with the result, China has stolen the initiative.
It is undoubtedly due to Beijing’s behind-the-scenes efforts that Bangladesh and Myanmar have begun to talk, and talk constructively to determine the fate of an estimated one million displaced Rohingyas, now living in gigantic camps spread over 2000 acres in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh.
Confusion over its relative interests in the two countries; what it should do to contain China; and systemic deficiencies in the decision making process; appear to have resulted in India’s losing the initiative to China.
As a result, China could gain ground in both Bangladesh and Myanmar at India’s expense. China and India both have vital economic and strategic interests in Bangladesh and Myanmar.
It is undoubtedly due to Beijing’s behind-the-scenes efforts that Bangladesh and Myanmar have begun to talk, and talk constructively to determine the fate of an estimated one million displaced Rohingyas.
India sent a fair amount of relief material to the Rohingya refugees. But it did little else to solve the basic issue which had led to the exodus from Myanmar to Bangladesh. New Delhi did not even suggest a way out of the crisis. It was more concerned about preventing the Rohingyas from entering India and throwing out the 40, 000 already in the country.
It was only very recently that External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said in Dhaka that the only way out is to help Myanmar develop Rakhine State economically.
But her solution was way off the mark.
She had missed the point entirely.
The central issue is not economic backwardness, as she believes, but is religious-cum-ethnic. The Myanmarese do not accept the Rohingyas as indigenous nationals but as illegal Bengali Muslim immigrants, who stand in sharp contrast to the majority community in Myanmar –the Myanmarese Buddhists.
The Rohingyas have been denied citizenship though they have a history of settlement in Rakhine State going back to the 12th. Century. They have not only been denied citizenship but have been subjected to movement restrictions. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Prince Zeid has described the exodus from Rakhine into Bangladesh as being the result of “textbook ethnic cleansing. ”
Dhaka called for mediation by India and China. But while China responded, India did not, for fear of annoying its new-found friends in Myanmar.
China sent its Special Envoy on Asian Affairs, Sun Guoxiang, to Dhaka. India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was also in Dhaka for two days but she was more interested in the January 2019 parliamentary elections in Bangladesh, keen as India was in seeing that the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) contests the elections and not boycott it as it did in 2014. India wants to be able to play one Bangladeshi party against the other to promote its interests within the framework of parliamentary politics.
Sun Guoxiang, China’s Special Envoy
Dhaka called for mediation by India and China. But while China responded, India did not, for fear of annoying its new-found friends in Myanmar.
Significantly, Swaraj did not speak about the Rohingyas until she was asked to.
On the other hand, China has always had a clear cut and consistent policy on the Rohingyas. It has disapproved the practice of pointing fingers at one of the parties to the conflict. It has argued that international intervention will only complicate matters and has called for bilateral talks between Myanmar and Bangladesh to solve the issue between themselves.
China has had no suggestions to give to the two countries, but has only wanted them to thrash out the issues untrammeled by fears of international intervention.
International intervention by the West and the UN is anathema to the Myanmar military which actually rules the country.
And this view is shared by Suu Kyi also, because she looks at the Rohingyas in the same way as the military does.
The threat of international intervention in the form of economic sanctions also worried Myanmar, which is just about coming out of isolation to exploit its immense natural resources for its own growth and prosperity in a highly globalized world.
The US is toughening its stand on the Rohingya issue and is contemplating targeted sanctions.
The Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) is going to meet the Third Committee of the UN General Assembly which deals with human rights issues.
The UN Human Rights Council is to take up the issue in November.
In a way, Bangladesh too is wary of a broad spectrum international intervention under the aegis of the UN as it could vitiate bilateral relations with India and China. It also does not want anybody and everybody to come with relief fearing infiltration by intelligence agencies, saboteurs and Islamic radicals.
It is said that a leading Muslim organization from the UK had made a very attractive offer and was given permission to provide relief in the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps. But it was sent packing in a week because its staff were radicalizing the refugees in night classes held in the camps.
10-Point Program
It was apparently due to China’s efforts that Kyaw Tint Swe, Minister for the Office of the State Counselor, visited Dhaka earlier in October. Following that, this week, the Bangladesh Home Minister, Mohammad Asaduzzaman Khan visited Myanmar as the head of a 10-member delegation and had an hour’s talks with Suu Kyi.
As a result, a 10-point program to take back the one million Rohingyas who had fled Myanmar has been adopted.
According to the Myanmar news portal Mizzima the bilateral agreement envisages “stopping immediately entry by Myanmar nationals into Bangladesh and repatriation of refugees at the earliest date and restoring normalcy in Rakhine Region for their resettlement.”
Both sides also agreed to finish by November, the formation of the Joint Working Committee, which was announced in Dhaka early in October.
This is exactly what Dhaka has been wanting. It has achieved a breakthrough, as it were. On Wednesday Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Md. Shahidul Haque met Chinese Special Envoy Sun Guoxiang. He told the media later: “China is concerned. They believe this is not good for this region. They want the issue to be settled peacefully. They want it to be settled bilaterally. ”
The Foreign Secretary said that he updated the Chinese official, who had last visited Bangladesh in April this year. He told Sun that the total number of Rohingyas in Bangladesh has now gone up to one million.
Asked if Myanmar has agreed to take back the Rohingyas any time soon, Haque said: “We are optimistic.”
https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/...n-the-rohingya-issue-hands-the-game-to-china/
