India’s new war doctrine
Mohammad Jamil
India is preparing for a possible ‘two-front war’ with China and Pakistan, Indian newspaper reported on Wednesday. According to newspaper’s report, Indian Army is now revising its five-year-old doctrine to effectively meet the challenges of war with China and Pakistan, deal with asymmetric and fourth-generation warfare, and enhance strategic reach and joint operations with IAF and Navy. Work on the new war doctrine - to reflect the reconfiguration of threat perceptions and security challenges - is already underway under the aegis of Shimla-based Army Training Command. The head of the command Lt General AS Lamba went so far as to say that a massive thrust in Rawalpindi to quiet Pakistanis within 48 hours of the start of the assault. “The armed forces have to substantially enhance their strategic reach and out-of-area capabilities to protect India’s geo-political interests stretching from Persian Gulf to Malacca Strait. This would enable us to protect our island territories; as also give assistance to the littoral states in the Indian Ocean Region,” said General Kapoor.
In beginning November, Pakistan’s defence analysts had reported about India’s planning for so-called ‘Cold Start’ strategy and preparing for a limited war against Pakistan. General Kapoor’s statement on 24th November 2009 confirmed the hegemonic thrust of India’s nuclear doctrine. Indian Army Chief had indicated that India was setting the stage for a limited war against Pakistan since long. Despite the fact that efforts are afoot to downplay India-China border dispute and rivalry, there is a consensus among defence analysts that Arunachal is a flashpoint like or even more than Taiwan. Bharat Verma, editor Indian Defence Review, in his article titled ‘Unmasking China’ in July/September 2009 issue, had presaged that there could be a war during the month of October 2009 between India and China, which luckily did not happen.
China claims some 90000 square kilometer of Arunachal Pradesh, which was once a part of Tibet. But India takes the plea that it is part of India, which it inherited from the British Raj. The first Chinese Premier Zhou En Lai had written to Indian prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru rejecting latter’s contention that the border was based on 1914 treaty of Simla Convention, adding that Chinese government had not accepted McMohan Line as legal. It appears that Asia is going to be the next theatre of war, thanks to the US and the West’s machinations and India’s ambitions to be a regional power with their support. Recent events in Tibet and Xinjiang however have sparked regional concerns. Bharat Verma, editor of the Indian Defence Review, in an interview with Times of India had claimed that “China would attack India before 2012 to divert the attention of its own people from unprecedented internal dissent, growing unemployment and financial problems that are threatening the hold of Communists in that country”.
In fact, the global financial meltdown and recession have impacted China least, as it has recorded more than 7% growth as compared to 2 to 3% of the most stable economies of the world. Anyhow India’s talk of possibility of war with China is to attract attention of the US and the West with a view to having further concessions and help to strengthen India’s armed forces. Chinese leadership remains well composed as usual and does not intend to create war frenzy. In 1962, when India tried to flex its muscles, Chinese troops had advanced to 48 kilometers in Assam plains and also occupied Indian forces’ strategic posts in Ladakh. The border clashes with China were a direct consequence of the Tibetan problem that cropped up when the Dalai Lama had fled to India. Since then it has become a flashpoint that could spark a war between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.
Over the years, both countries held series of negotiations to resolve the territorial dispute but to no avail. But after British Foreign Office clarification on 29th October 2008 admitting that Tibet was part of China, India should have reviewed its policy of claim on Arunachal. Britain should also give its version on Kashmir dispute, as this dispute also owes its origin to British Raj. It should support the United Nations Security Resolution giving the people of Kashmir the right to join Pakistan or India through the UN supervised plebiscite, international community.
It would not be an exaggeration to say that Pakistan’s stability has always been the cornerstone of China’s foreign policy. China and Pakistan signed a deal in 2006 to upgrade the Karakoram Highway, which runs from the trading city of Kashgar in China’s far western Xinjiang region to Gilgit in Pakistan and on to Islamabad. Chinese President Hu Jintao had rejected the Indian protest over Chinese help to Pakistan and vowed that China would continue to support projects in Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas.
On the other hand, Chinese government had strongly protested over Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, and had expressed its anger over the planned visit of Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh. China had however warned that there should no political speeches, and Dalai Lama avoided any political statement during the trip, as he did not like to exacerbate the tension between China and India.A few months ago, according to Indian press reports China’s soldiers, helicopters and even fighter jets have been intruding in the disputed territory to slowly and steadily retrieve the area. Though Chinese media has never created hype about its territorial dispute with India, yet recently Chinese diplomats, intellectuals and leaders of the public opinion assert claims over Arunachal Pradesh. In May 2009, international media had carried reports that India has significantly upgraded its military prowess along the border it shares with China, deploying two army divisions along with a squadron of top-of-the-line Sukhoi Su-30MKI warplanes at a critical base in the north-east. Three Awacs command-and-control aircraft was also deployed to boost India’s ability to track troop and equipment movements on the Chinese side of the border.
Whereas the US seems to have invoked its policy of containing China and to create a situation to stymie its progress, Beijing is also making preparations to meet any eventuality, and building up its military strength to project power not only regionally but also to contend the US as a major player in global politics. Nevertheless, Chinese leaders hope that frictions can be contained and overwhelmed by the two nation’s shared interest in prosperity. Chinese leadership also understands that economic power is the most important and most essential factor in comprehensive national power, which is why China has all along focused on increasing its economic strength, keeping in mind that its military strength depends on the former.
Indian leadership should not exacerbate the tensions in Asia, and should understand the consequences of saber-rattling and ultimate war with two atomic states. It should also understand that during peace time, army generals should not come out with aggressive statements because that can be construed as declaration of war.