@Thiha the Lion I appreciate your thoughts on this subject from the Burmese point of view. But I want to make some difference with the points you have raised here
1. Ground forces would be facing each other in narrow Chittagong and Rakhine coastal area,
difficult to make a breakthrough. Simple.
Bangladesh and Myanmar share 271 km border. This is more then enough to make any kind of maneuver. Egypt and Israel share just 208 km border, but that was the scene of some of the biggest battle post WW2. The main obstacle in Bangladesh-Myanmar border is not the lack of space but the natural barrier like mountainous jungle and Naf river in much of the border areas.
2. Myanmar airforce will dominate the sky ( numbers are obvious ) , will do some shooting exercise inside BD territory
It is true. For at least in the earlier stage. But if that hypothetical war continue to drag on like Iraq-Iran war than Bangladesh will pretty quickly obliterate the gap assuming arms embargo not imposed on both countries and both countries remain free to procure arms. Larger economy of Bangladesh compared to Myanmar will pay-off in a longer run.
Myanmar have more guns, and more battle-hardened troops . Burmese forces have been fighting actual battles for the last 70 years ( fight to kill , not peacekeeping forces )
fighting insurgency and fighting conventional war are two different things. And how much Burmese army battle hardened is open to dispute. Due to several reasons, 1. success of Burmese army against various rebel groups are not impressive, they suffer huge number of casualties, rebel groups control vast swath of Burmese territory. 2. Burmese army often poorly equipped and poorly trained. A large percentage are child soldiers and many men were forcefully recruited into army. These factors do not give a picture of battle hardened, dedicated fighting men. 3.Most importantly, fighting numerous rebel groups within Myanmar will obviously handicap Myanmar army to fully engage it's men and materials against Bangladesh. While Bangladesh is totally free from these constrains.
and favoured by strategic depth and geography too.
Myanmar is far larger than BD with geographical barriers . I wont be surprised if not a single shot would even reach Burmese mainland.
Although Myanmar is geographically larger than Bangladesh, but the strategic depth advantage is not decisive. Consider about areal bombing. From Sittwe(nearest Myanmar air base to BD) to Dhaka is 260 nautical miles. On the other hand, from Cox's Bazar(nearest Bangladeshi base to Myanmar) to Yangon is 362 nautical miles. Both of these distance are fairly easy to cover by modern fighter jets. Other major Burmese cities like Mandalay and Naypyidaw are even nearer to Cox's Bazar then Yangon. So both country are capable to hit each other in it's vital installation using fighter jets.
On other hand, BD have densely populated in every part of its small territory. Intrutable for Myanmar fighters and , every bomb is sure to cause big mortality.
The area of engagement would be almost whole of BD versus small western portion ( region ) of Myanmar .
No, not whole Bangladesh. It would be more like between Chittagong division of Bangladesh and Rakhine state of Myanmar. I think both country will refrain from going beyond that, knowing , any bombing on Dhaka will result in bombing in Yangon or vise versa. Much like Iran Iraq war or India Pakistan war. They avoided bombing each other's densely populated cities. But if that hypothetical war between Bangladesh and Myanmar turn really that savage, then areal bombing will cover all the major cities of both countries. Here Myanmar will not get any extra advantage due to larger geography. As I have shown, the distance of major cities of both countries are not that great for a fighter jet.
Diplomatically, China and India would favour to Myanmar due to its geopolitical value.
I doubt that they will support Myanmar against Bangladesh in a war. Most likely they will turn neutral or engage in diplomacy to stop the war or worse sale weapon to both sides. China shields Myanmar from UN resolution does not mean, it will actively assist Myanmar against Bangladesh in a war. China do not consider shielding Myanmar from Western punishment in Rohingya cause as something hostile to Bangladesh. Chinese investment and economic engagement in Bangladesh is noway less than Myanmar. Same is true for India.
However actual manpower help might come to BD from sympathetic islamists from far away lands . ( but as in every other place, their presence will be bigger headache . No sane Bangladeshi would want radicalised Chechens in their home )
It is laughable that, to imagine possible support for Bangladesh, you only thought about foreign militant groups. But not the Western countries or Muslim world.
Who would lose from the being in war , in terms of material and life, both would lose.
Who would lose more , BD much much much more.
1. Bay of Bengal would be theater of war . Whole of BD coastline would be closed and along with it, go its ports and shipping and exports and all its economy .
2. Myanmar have far longer coastline . BOB not even made half of its maritime territory. Gulf of Martaban would be still safe ( No BD ships would come this far in Myanmar-dominated sky beyond Coco islands ) .
Why you are assuming that, any naval engagement will obviously be concentrated in Bangladeshi water? With Frigate, Corvette and Submarine, it could be anywhere in the BoB, even in the Gulf of Martaban. distance is not that great. If Bangladesh can gain upper hand in naval battle, it is the Burmese side which will face greater disruption to sea borne trade. Smaller land area and coastline also has it's advantage, it means, your logistics are simpler, each unit of area is better protected by more denser concentration of man and equipment, one example being air defence installation.
3. BD largest advantage of larger population means more stomachs to feed. Myanmar in its whole history did not have mass famine whatever the cause is . Opposite is true for BD.
So in terms of human and economic losses , BD would suffer much.
Famine occured in Bangladesh mainly during colonial period. Most often due to bad govt. policy than actual food shortage. Bangladesh has bigger population but it also has bigger agricultural production than Myanmar. Bangladesh's food production is twice as large as compared to Myanmar. In most of the food items, Bangladesh is self sufficient or close to self sufficient. With some war time rationing, Bangladesh can feed it's population quite easily even in war time.
Any armed conflicts would halt FDI flows to BD in the forms of factories and production lines . Say Bye Bye to GDP growth . It is not worth risking a war for no obvious casus belli or prize worth of reward.
Yes, war is not worth considering the vast potential. And it is not happening in anyway. Actually Bangladesh and Myanmar have not big enough reason to go to war. Not certainly for 1 million Rohingyas. Both land and maritime border are well demarcated between these two countries, there is no claim or counter claim of territories, no other serious dispute. Hopefully Rohingya repatriation will start soon and bilateral relation will change for betterment.