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Published: Sunday, August 4, 2013
Sunday Pouch
India factor in Bangladesh politics
Sunday Pouch - India factor in Bangladesh politics
Ashfaqur Rahman
Headlines in Bangladesh newspapers screamed last week that our Foreign Minister Dipu Moni had returned from a three-day visit to New Delhi empty handed. She had failed to get firm assurances from relevant quarters that the Indian constitution would indeed be amended in order to allow the ratification of the 1974 Land boundary Agreement (LBA) signed between the two countries. She also could not get any hint from the Indian prime minister as to when the Teesta river agreement would be signed. So, on both counts, Dipu Moni returned to Dhaka with a grimace.
The Indian press reported all this with some pleasure. Earlier they had said that the foreign minister was travelling to Delhi with an arjee(special request) for resolution of these two key issues. In a press conference in Delh, Dipu Moni confirmed her fears after her meeting with the Indian prime minister and Arun Jaitley, the opposition BJP leader in the Upper House, when she said: If this bill does not go through and the Teesta water sharing deal is not signed, they will become important issues in the run-up to the parliamentary elections in my country.
The question that begs an answer is why Dipu Moni initiated this demarche at so late a stage in the five year term of this Awami League led government? Why was the initiative not taken soon after India had agreed to implement the LBA this time round? For that matter, was it appropriate for our foreign minister to lobby on an issue about which the Indian side is bound to take care? Was this Bangladeshs burden or Indias own?
We all know that the LBA cannot see the light of the day unless 2/3rd of the members in Indian parliament vote in favour of the amendment of their constitution as it involves transfer of land to a foreign country. We also know that the ruling Congress-led coalition does not command such a majority in the two Houses. It is therefore unlikely that the amendment could see the light of the day when the matter is again placed in the parliament this month.
The opposition coalition led by BJP has consistently opposed the LBA and is not likely to vote differently this time. Yet our government is reported to have merrily gone ahead and publicised that the LBA is being concluded. Now Dipu Moni has to carry the hollow can, till Awami Leagues (AL) term ends.
Are we to understand that this initiative was taken knowing very well that it is a futile attempt, and that it was to give our public an impression that this government did not leave any stone unturned to get the LBA implemented? If this is what it was, then indeed the India factor looms large in Bangladesh politics.
As regards the sharing of the waters of the Teesta river, the matter remains unresolved because of differences between the central government of India and the West Bengal state government led by Mamta Banerjee. India needs to resolve these differences first. Now that Mamatas Trinamool Congress has won handsomely in the recently held Panchayat elections in West Bengal, can we expect her to be generous and accommodate the legitimate demands of Bangladesh? In any case, the volume of water flowing in the Teesta river in the lean season is much too little for it to be divided in any proportion, to meet the need of agriculture in northern Bangladesh.
It is nothing new, say many analysts, that Dipu Moni has returned empty handed from New Delhi. She has, according to them, been a party in giving away goodies to India without having India reciprocate Bangladeshs gesture. They point out that Bangladesh has unilaterally met Indias security concern in northeast India. Further, as special consideration it has allowed oversized vehicles carrying electricity generating components to travel through Bangladesh from West Bengal to the state of Tripura.
Bangladesh is also making preparations to upgrade its road and port infrastructure to give transit facilities to India. Yet there have been no concrete steps taken by India to meet Bangladeshs requirements. Even the simple issue of stopping the abduction and killing of Bangladeshis along the fenced-off border between the two countries, though in fewer numbers now, has not been resolved. So the implementation of LBA and signing of a Teesta treaty remains a far cry.
The Al government, in the past four and half years, has wooed India and given away much to earn its goodwill. It is the Indian people who by and large are impressed. In many circles, the sincere gesture of Bangladesh to help India secure northeast India is appreciated. In a recent poll, the people there branded Bangladesh as the friendliest country not only in the region but also in the world. We seem to have overtaken Indias traditional friendship with Russia. The Indian press is also better able to understand Bangladeshs legitimate concerns. But elements within the Indian bureaucracy as well as the BJP see Bangladesh with a jaundiced eye.
The political parties in Bangladesh are keenly aware of the need to maintain friendly relations with such a big neighbour. Even our mainstream opposition, the BNP, found it expedient to develop a friendlier attitude towards India. Yet the people in general want their national interest to be protected and furthered. They are not willing to compromise. These include among others, a peaceful and secure land border with India, equitable share of waters of the common rivers, a gain worthy and equitable demarcation of a maritime boundary, receiving compensation for giving India road and rail transit, etc.
Any political party that messes up these bottom lines will have to suffer heavily in the national elections. The people also dislike political parties that sit on the fence or oppose friendly ties with India. They want to see a proactive and pragmatic political engagement with India that brings results and not just rhetoric.
The Indian factor has already started to figure in the minds of the Bangladesh electorate. India, by raising expectations without substantive delivery, is only harming its own prospects. The opposition BNP is likely to also factor India while campaigning in the elections (if indeed it participates in the national polls). The Al is therefore on the verge of realising that mere hyperbole is not likely to bring votes for the party as it may not be able to show substantive results of cozying up to India.
The time for delivery by India is indeed fast receding.
The writer is a former ambassador and a commentator on current affairs.
E-mail: ashfaque303@**********
Sunday Pouch
India factor in Bangladesh politics
Sunday Pouch - India factor in Bangladesh politics
Ashfaqur Rahman
Headlines in Bangladesh newspapers screamed last week that our Foreign Minister Dipu Moni had returned from a three-day visit to New Delhi empty handed. She had failed to get firm assurances from relevant quarters that the Indian constitution would indeed be amended in order to allow the ratification of the 1974 Land boundary Agreement (LBA) signed between the two countries. She also could not get any hint from the Indian prime minister as to when the Teesta river agreement would be signed. So, on both counts, Dipu Moni returned to Dhaka with a grimace.
The Indian press reported all this with some pleasure. Earlier they had said that the foreign minister was travelling to Delhi with an arjee(special request) for resolution of these two key issues. In a press conference in Delh, Dipu Moni confirmed her fears after her meeting with the Indian prime minister and Arun Jaitley, the opposition BJP leader in the Upper House, when she said: If this bill does not go through and the Teesta water sharing deal is not signed, they will become important issues in the run-up to the parliamentary elections in my country.
The question that begs an answer is why Dipu Moni initiated this demarche at so late a stage in the five year term of this Awami League led government? Why was the initiative not taken soon after India had agreed to implement the LBA this time round? For that matter, was it appropriate for our foreign minister to lobby on an issue about which the Indian side is bound to take care? Was this Bangladeshs burden or Indias own?
We all know that the LBA cannot see the light of the day unless 2/3rd of the members in Indian parliament vote in favour of the amendment of their constitution as it involves transfer of land to a foreign country. We also know that the ruling Congress-led coalition does not command such a majority in the two Houses. It is therefore unlikely that the amendment could see the light of the day when the matter is again placed in the parliament this month.
The opposition coalition led by BJP has consistently opposed the LBA and is not likely to vote differently this time. Yet our government is reported to have merrily gone ahead and publicised that the LBA is being concluded. Now Dipu Moni has to carry the hollow can, till Awami Leagues (AL) term ends.
Are we to understand that this initiative was taken knowing very well that it is a futile attempt, and that it was to give our public an impression that this government did not leave any stone unturned to get the LBA implemented? If this is what it was, then indeed the India factor looms large in Bangladesh politics.
As regards the sharing of the waters of the Teesta river, the matter remains unresolved because of differences between the central government of India and the West Bengal state government led by Mamta Banerjee. India needs to resolve these differences first. Now that Mamatas Trinamool Congress has won handsomely in the recently held Panchayat elections in West Bengal, can we expect her to be generous and accommodate the legitimate demands of Bangladesh? In any case, the volume of water flowing in the Teesta river in the lean season is much too little for it to be divided in any proportion, to meet the need of agriculture in northern Bangladesh.
It is nothing new, say many analysts, that Dipu Moni has returned empty handed from New Delhi. She has, according to them, been a party in giving away goodies to India without having India reciprocate Bangladeshs gesture. They point out that Bangladesh has unilaterally met Indias security concern in northeast India. Further, as special consideration it has allowed oversized vehicles carrying electricity generating components to travel through Bangladesh from West Bengal to the state of Tripura.
Bangladesh is also making preparations to upgrade its road and port infrastructure to give transit facilities to India. Yet there have been no concrete steps taken by India to meet Bangladeshs requirements. Even the simple issue of stopping the abduction and killing of Bangladeshis along the fenced-off border between the two countries, though in fewer numbers now, has not been resolved. So the implementation of LBA and signing of a Teesta treaty remains a far cry.
The Al government, in the past four and half years, has wooed India and given away much to earn its goodwill. It is the Indian people who by and large are impressed. In many circles, the sincere gesture of Bangladesh to help India secure northeast India is appreciated. In a recent poll, the people there branded Bangladesh as the friendliest country not only in the region but also in the world. We seem to have overtaken Indias traditional friendship with Russia. The Indian press is also better able to understand Bangladeshs legitimate concerns. But elements within the Indian bureaucracy as well as the BJP see Bangladesh with a jaundiced eye.
The political parties in Bangladesh are keenly aware of the need to maintain friendly relations with such a big neighbour. Even our mainstream opposition, the BNP, found it expedient to develop a friendlier attitude towards India. Yet the people in general want their national interest to be protected and furthered. They are not willing to compromise. These include among others, a peaceful and secure land border with India, equitable share of waters of the common rivers, a gain worthy and equitable demarcation of a maritime boundary, receiving compensation for giving India road and rail transit, etc.
Any political party that messes up these bottom lines will have to suffer heavily in the national elections. The people also dislike political parties that sit on the fence or oppose friendly ties with India. They want to see a proactive and pragmatic political engagement with India that brings results and not just rhetoric.
The Indian factor has already started to figure in the minds of the Bangladesh electorate. India, by raising expectations without substantive delivery, is only harming its own prospects. The opposition BNP is likely to also factor India while campaigning in the elections (if indeed it participates in the national polls). The Al is therefore on the verge of realising that mere hyperbole is not likely to bring votes for the party as it may not be able to show substantive results of cozying up to India.
The time for delivery by India is indeed fast receding.
The writer is a former ambassador and a commentator on current affairs.
E-mail: ashfaque303@**********
Ask him to cough up 1Billion$ in a year of BNP coming to power, and he cant even cry. 
