ziaulislam
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moving towards consumption based econmy is good for china, nt bad, as that is the avenue unexplored in china.Japan is 5 Trillion economy, economically speaking Japanese Inc. has declined over the past years. Japan is looking to revive its economy and India and Japan can co operate in this regard. India is a big market for Japanese companies to rejuvenate Japanese Inc .
Strategically speaking China's rise will have some implications in Asia and China is seen as a threat by both India and Japan. Both the nations are located strategically on both sides of China.
Compared to chinese economy which has 1.3 Billion people to feed, Japanese can spend more on defense and investments. Japanese reserves can also counter chinese economic diplomacy.
The goal of CCP is to isolate the nations in Asia and deal with them in a bilateral exchanges. To counter this move nations are coming together with both economic and strategic ties.
India's main objective is to counter growing chinese influence in S.Asia.
Regarding China's expansionist policies:
Chinese growth of double digits is over .... they are moving to consumption based economy. The current GDP which they are showing as 10 Trillion is a manipulated one.
For the last 5 years Chinese are more reliant on infrastructure growth to increase their GDP, they have shown the infra growth as their double digit GDP growth and calculated their GDP on this basis.
It is clearly evident that with the current economic crisis in china that the infra. growth numbers are indeed wrong and are manipulated ones.
Today if we see the chinese cities every city is associated with huge debts some close to 170% . Their High Speed Rail is not giving expected returns ...... Here we are talking about Trillions of dollars of investment done in the last 5 years.
Chinese economy is expected to slow down in the next decade.
Then there is increase in labor wages and reduction in work force. These two factors will deter Chinese advantage in manufacturing.
So all in all we can say Chinese muscle backed by chinese economy is not going to grow as it did in the last decade. But in contrast India is expecting its economy to grow with its manufacturing policy initiatives and investments from abroad.
India is expecting investments from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Middle east and USA. It is expected that India will spend 1 Trillion dollars on infrastructure.
After the General elections I think the activity related to economy will pick up.
The scenario in the next decade will be rising India and stabilizing China. With the help of some allies if we can negate the threat of Chinese and protect our strategic interests during the next decade...... I think India will be in a good position to deal with the threats there after.
there growth is still very rapid i.e 7.8% above their govt target of 7.5, remember 7.8 is very fast economic growth and all the forecast suggest that it will grow at this enormous speed. now its less than miraculous double digit growth, yet its very fast. faster than indian average decade growth or nearly 1.8X faster than india growth of 4.7%.
remeber in past decade china grew around 10 with some drops in single digit. so its so called "slow down' has been decrease in mere 2% growth(or say 20%) from around 10 to around 8. now ome might say thats slow down, indeed it a slow down but not a slow down in the sense what indians are thinking.
the slow down is happening in india when its growth dropped from around 8 to merely half i.e 4.7 this year
this link willl show that in previous decade china grew round about 10 on average with half of the years in single digits.
conclusion: despite some media hype, there has been no such thing as china slow down!
China GDP Annual Growth Rate | Actual Data | Forecasts | Calendar