India Emerges the Biggest Winner of the Ukraine War and Growing US-China Tensions

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The war in Ukraine: Impact on Pakistan’s energy security

by Waqar Rizvi

The War in Ukraine: Pakistan: The war in Ukraine: Impact on Pakistan’s energy security

Pakistan has long dealt with energy-insecurity, a state of affairs exacerbated by the disastrous economic effects of the pandemic, floods and war in Ukraine. While some experts warned Pakistan that its energy dependence was untenable, there were others who believed such concerns were overblown...

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Pakistan has long dealt with energy-insecurity, a state of affairs exacerbated by the disastrous economic effects of the pandemic, floods and war in Ukraine. While some experts warned Pakistan that its energy dependence was untenable, there were others who believed such concerns were overblown thanks to the abundance and low cost of Liquefied Natural Gas. The war in Ukraine has proven the latter group wrong, the subsequent sanctions disrupting energy supplies from Russia and driving up global prices. Europe's entry into the market and ability to meet any cost in securing limited worldwide supplies place Pakistan in an even more difficult position.

Pakistani officials already warn of mass gas shortages, and load-shedding in households is rampant with areas of the country experiencing daily power cuts that are 16 hours long. The country’s vital textile industry also stands to suffer from an interrupted and limited supply. This situation exists despite Pakistan's possession of exploitable natural resources, owing to policy-makers' dogmatic view that the development of these resources for self-reliance was unachievable. In addition, insecurity and political instability in areas such as resource-rich Balochistan have thwarted any remedial measures.

Pakistan’s alliances and loyalties with traditional allies are being tested at this difficult time. To encourage vital foreign investment in Pakistan's energy sector, the government can take advantage of the desire of the Chinese, Russians, Americans and Europeans to gain influence in the country. Restricted by geopolitical considerations from taking sides in the war on Ukraine, Pakistan must secure its national interests, especially energy security.

Pakistan should eschew inactivity despite the risk of being outbid in the competitive global LNG market. Responsible energy policymaking must be embraced, including the implementation and incentivisation of energy conservation measures, whilst shielding the lower classes from additional energy costs. Needed is a multifaceted energy policy that considers all available resources such as gas, oil, coal, solar, hydro and wind power. Experts must be involved in the formulation of sound strategies to exploit these sources, and Pakistan must learn from its mistakes, such its signing of bad-faith contracts with LNG middlemen, which allowed them to abandon Pakistan's agreements for profits.

However, political turmoil remains the largest contributor to Pakistan's energy insecurity. The government and opposition parties will need to put aside their partisan bickering to prioritize the country’s interests. Sound policies grounded in reality, as opposed to theoretical ones, are called for, and leaders must step up during crises.

Pakistan is in dire need of an infrastructural upgrade and must play all its cards to achieve it. Diplomatically, Pakistan holds significant influence in international forums and has valuable voting power at the United Nations. Economically, Pakistan can promise significant benefits to nations that invest in its natural resources.

 

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The Wire
@thewire_in

After S. Jaishankar said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy, military veterans have accused the Narendra Modi government of having a "defeatist attitude" and "bowing down to a bully".

Military Veterans Slam Jaishankar's 'Defeatist Attitude' Towards China

The external affairs minister recently said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter is the bigger economy.

thewire.in

New Delhi: After external affairs minister S. Jaishankar said that India cannot pick a fight with China because the latter has a bigger economy, military veterans have accused the Narendra Modi government of having a “defeatist attitude” and “bowing down to a bully”.

In a podcast with ANI editor-in-chief Smita Prakash on Wednesday, Jaishankar said: “Look, they (China) are the bigger economy. What am I going to do? As a smaller economy, I am going to pick up a fight with the bigger economy? It is not a question of being reactionary, it’s a question of common sense….”

He added that India and China have an agreement not to bring large number of troops to the border, and asked if India should violate that agreement.

Former Navy chief Arun Prakash, a veteran of the 1971 war, tweeted: “If relative size of economies is seen as arbiter of int’l relations, how come nations like Cuba, N Korea & Iran thumb their noses at the USA or Vietnam at China? India, as a democracy, nuclear weapon state & significant economic & mil power must stand firm against hegemony.”



Major General Shail Jha (retired) tweeted: “Mr Jaishankar should know that its not India but China which is picking the fight.”



The veteran added: “Economy or no economy, if we bow down to a bully, we are abandoning our self-respect. Is it acceptable? What a shame. And the guy is being hailed as the greatest FM. It’s cowardice.”



Speaking to The Telegraph, a former lieutenant general said Jaishankar’s statement was “shocking” and was reminiscent of “unconditional surrender”.

“What happened to the so-called muscular nationalism that this government projects in election speeches? Modi’s self-declared muscular nationalism has now capitulated to Chinese aggression and bullying,” the veteran said.

Speaking about Chinese intrusions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the veteran told the newspaper that instead of “asking the Chinese troops to retreat”, the “New India under Modiji agreed to create buffer zones within Indian territories in eastern Ladakh as part of the disengagement agreement, thus ceding further territory to China



A retired colonel said Jaishankar’s “defeatist statement” spoke volumes about Modi’s China policy. “Where is Mr 56-inch Modi’s muscular nationalism when it comes to China?” the former colonel asked.

 

[RiazHaq]

In less than a year, the #Indian government has saved an estimated $3.6 billion by ramping up #Russian #oil imports. The #West’s #sanctions on #Russia’s oil trade have benefited #India hugely. #Modi #UkraineWar #Hindutva #BJP #US https://qz.com/how-much-money-has-india-saved-by-buying-russian-fuel-1850153966

The amount is possibly much higher. For instance, in May 2022, supplies from Russia were priced at $16 cheaper than the average Indian imported crude oil barrel of $110. By then, Russia had already reduced $30 on every barrel sold to India, Quartz had reported.

India has subsequently bought Russian oil well below the $60-a-barrel cap imposed by the West.

“For some deals this month, the price for Urals (Russia’s flagship crude) in Indian ports, including insurance and delivery by ship, has fallen to around minus $12-$15 per barrel versus a monthly average of dated Brent, down from a discount of $5-$8 per barrel in October and $10-$11 in November,” Reuters reported on Dec. 14, 2022, citing unnamed sources.

India is among Russia’s topmost buyers
Russia changed the target market for its oil supplies to Asia after the US and Europe Union imposed sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine. Till then, Europe was its largest market.

Having ignored the West’s concerns, India now plays a significant role in keeping Russia’s oil balance sheet afloat. The country depends on imports to meet 85% of its petroleum needs. Private players like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy account for more than half of its total inbound shipments.

This year, Indian refiners cumulatively imported around 1.3 million barrels every day during January 1-15. Private firms accounted for 60% of this, energy intelligence firm Vortexa estimated.

Russia’s increasing share of the Indian oil market
By June 2022, Russia’s share of India’s oil imports had risen from a mere 2% in February 2022—before the Ukraine war—to 18%. Soon after, Russia became India’s second-largest crude oil supplier after Iraq.

The constant lowering of prices compelled Iraq also to follow suit, although that didn’t stop Russia from becoming India’s top supplier.

India stood its ground in the face of criticism from the West over this association.

“Russia has been a steady and time-tested partner. Any objective evaluation of our relationship over many decades would confirm that it has actually served both our countries very, very well,” foreign minister S Jaishankar said in Russia in November 2022, confirming a continuance of policy.

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#US Sec of State Tony #Blinken Says #India, #SouthAfrica Are on Slow Trajectory Away From Alignment With #Russia. Neither country has joined the West in denouncing Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. #NATO #China https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...ow-trajectory-away-from-alignment-with-russia

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday countries like India and South Africa, which have not joined the West in denouncing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were likely on a trajectory away from alignment with Moscow but that process would not happen "in one fell swoop."

"There are countries that have long-standing, decades-long relationships with Russia, with the Soviet Union before, that are challenging to break off in one fell swoop. It's not flipping a light switch, it’s moving an aircraft carrier," Blinken said in an interview with The Atlantic, marking the one year anniversary of the war.

India has faced pressure from the West to distance itself from Moscow after Russian invaded Ukraine. New Delhi has thus far resisted that pressure, citing its longstanding ties with Russia and its economic and oil needs.

Russia has been India's largest weapons supplier since the Soviet Union days. However, Washington in recent years has looked to woo New Delhi away from its traditional military supplier. India is desperate to modernize its largely Soviet-era fighter jet fleet to boost its air power after concerns over Russian supply delays due to the Ukraine war.



"India for decades had Russia at the core of providing military equipment to it and its defenses, but what we’ve seen over the last few years is a trajectory away from relying on Russia and moving into partnership with us and other countries," Blinken said.

Blinken also added that he understood the reasons for South Africa's ties with Russia while acknowledging regret for Washington's "sympathetic" approach to the apartheid-era regime in South Africa.

The African National Congress party, which has governed South Africa since white minority rule ended in 1994, had strong ties to the former Soviet Union, which trained and supported anti-apartheid activists during the Cold War. Nelson Mandela, South Africa's anti-apartheid hero, who died in 2013 and was a global icon, was regarded with suspicion by Washington during the Cold War and was even on the U.S. terrorism watch list in that era.

"The Soviet Union was supportive of the freedom forces in South Africa, and of course unfortunately, more than unfortunately, the United States was much too sympathetic to the apartheid regime, so that history also doesn’t get erased, you know, overnight, it's a process," Blinken said.

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh in Washington; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

 

[RiazHaq]

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#US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen: #India part of ‘friendshoring’ plan for #tech #supplychains.“We are seeing progress; as an example, #technology companies like #Apple and #Google have expanded their phone #production in India” #China https://indianexpress.com/article/c...riendshoring-plan-tech-supply-chains-8466707/ via @IndianExpress

India is an important part of the United States’ business strategy of “friendshoring”, by which supply chains to the country are being made resilient, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told tech business leaders in Bengaluru on Saturday.

“As we look towards to the future, I am eager to deepen our ties in the technology sector,” the US treasury secretary said at a meeting held on the sidelines of a G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors.

“The United States is advancing an approach called ‘friendshoring’ to bolster the resilience of our supply chains. We are doing this by strengthening integration with our many trusted trading partners – including India,” the former Federal Reserve chair said.

“We are seeing progress; as an example, technology companies like Apple and Google have expanded their phone production in India,” she said. “We depend on each other on a daily basis: Indians use WhatsApp to communicate and many American companies rely on Infosys to operate.”

“The US is India’s biggest trading partner. In 2021, our bilateral trade was over $150 billion. Our people-to-people ties affirm the closeness of our relationship. 200,000 Indians are studying in America and enriching our schools and universities,” she said.

Yellen quoted President Joe Biden as saying that India was an indispensable partner of the US.

“Through the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, or PGII, we are investing in digital technologies that will drive inclusive, resilient growth in India. Under PGII, the United States has announced investments in agri-tech to enable climate-smart agricultural production, and in digital payments systems for micro-entrepreneurs,” she said.

 

[Tempest]

The Indians do international relations well.
They have some how managed to keep the west invested and remain close with Russia.
India will not be used by USA infact I see them getting more from.Usa then giving them anything back
They will not become an ally of anything I think