India completes the nuclear triad, turning South Asia’s strategic equation on its head

[ravi gupta]

Lets put it this way. When wee talk of nuclear.. there are no winners in the subcontinent. The US and Russians have vast open spaces and are thousands of miles away from each other.. heck they can even abort their warheads during midcourse and they have that time to do so. They have preserved pristine locations where life can still go on resettled and they have the mechanisms in place to ensure that; we dont.

Once the buttons are pressed in our case.. they are pressed and that is that.

Dear Oscar,

Very logical,y not pakistan come up with NFU policy.

 

[SQ8]

Dear Oscar,

Very logical,y not pakistan come up with NFU policy.

It would be illogical. India is the bigger fish, so the only way to keep a bigger fish at bay is to constantly threaten it with madness.

 

[Ankit Kumar]

I find the NFU policy of India a little risky.
It should be
1. No nukes against non nuke nation.
2. NFU against only those nations which have a NFU. Means an agreement of no nuke exchange with that nation.

3. First Nuke strike possible against nation which do not have either NFU policy or an defence agreement with India.

 

[kublaiyuan]

It would be illogical. India is the bigger fish, so the only way to keep a bigger fish at bay is to constantly threaten it with madness.

m pretty sure pakistan is natural

Arihant is kind of a training ship for upcoming bigger babies, rest of submarines will be bigger and will carry double the amount of K-4 missiles or upgraded cousins.
next bby will carry 8 and other will be even bigger with 12 which will carry ICBMs mostly.

 

[Hellfire]

Well now when Pakistan introduces it's own nuclear sub nobody will say anything as we are doing it only for deterrence and as I always say it's good to have a enemy like India makes us better

That was a logic which was achieved with your present set up. Practically speaking, SSBNs will only be of practical value to Pakistan if they maintain more than 5 to 6. For India, it is the China factor only. Like @Oscar said, its more of a psychological domination for home consumption, especially in your case. For India too, it right now more psychological rather than practical use. India intends to have around 6 - 8 SSBNs and around 6 - 10 SSNs over the next couple of decades.

 

[Genesis]

I find the NFU policy of India a little risky.
It should be
1. No nukes against non nuke nation.
2. NFU against only those nations which have a NFU. Means an agreement of no nuke exchange with that nation.

3. First Nuke strike possible against nation which do not have either NFU policy or an defence agreement with India.

You do realize NFU is just a few words on a piece of paper right. Rules only mean something when someone has the might to enforce it, otherwise it's not worth the paper they are written on.

IF, it ever came down to a discussion of nukes, I'm sure all rules are out the window. So you having it or not is essentially just for show.

I mean until such time that India develops the capabilities of the US where it's only an offensive nation, no first use's existence can serve a public relations purpose, if no actual purpose.

 

[Hellfire]

I dont think India has a first strike policy. The reason why india has invested heavily in SSBNs is the fact that india needs a very credible second strike in case it deals with an incapacitating first strike.!

The bold part. The ambiguity is very clear in Indian nuclear doctrine, that we choose to respond with a weapon of our own choice to any strike with CBRN weapons, where in even the actual move of CBRN weapons for a strike against Indian counterforce/countervalue targets, can be construed as an imminent attack and the same can be neutralized with own attack. That is one ambiguity which is very clear in India actually having a first strike doctrine in case of imminent use of these weapons. Rest of the part, if you know even 0.5% about Indian Strategic Forces, nuclear command and control and dispersion of assets and platforms, the case of an 'incapacitation' of Indian strategic forces with a first strike is not only remote, but also near impossible. Until and unless the enemy nation decided to drop about 1000 plus MT yield weapons all over the Indian territory ......!

Indian nuclear forces should be able to survive such a first attack. Incidently i was having this very same discussion on some technical feature of the primary "armament" of arihant ,today in the class with my collegue who happens to work on this project. The primary focus is "survivability". What is more important here,is the fact that with the qualitative improvement in the indian nuclear forces- like introduction of canisterized cold launch of ICBMs and SLBMs- india has moved in the direction of electronic-mating of the warheads with the delivery system.This provides india a much needed edge over pakistan in terms of launching a surprise attack(which is unlikely given india's NFUP pledge) by reducing the preparation time! In the case of TCT-5(canisterized agni-5 system) the launch time/prep time is as low as just 5mins!

That is indeed a very old piece of news ....

 

[kublaiyuan]

@Oscar Sir, my knowledge of radioactive fallout is very limited, therefore this question. IF india were to attack Lahore for "X" reason, wouldn't the radioactive fallout effect New Delhi as well? Given their geographical proximity.

wow you are talking about nuke war like a play of children living safely in UAE.
God forbid if this kind of exchange ever takes place. India will never nuke pakistan first, I hope
pakistani establishment is not suicidal.

 

[Genesis]

We are the 5th power to have nuclear triad and one of the two emerging ones.

I believe it would take atleast 8-10 years for IN to get used to the Arihant class subs with fully operational and Armed. INS Aridhaman is expected to be operational in end of 2018.

I was wondering what happened to the media buzz about the 5$ billion deal for PN's Yuan-Class Diesel submarines or larger Qing-Class submarines by Chinese.

6th power and the deal is fine, but it's not suppose to be completed until later, stay tuned. Even we can't make submarines appear out of thin air.

Completion of Nuclear Triad does make a lot of difference, in India-Pakistan scenario as well.

A SSBN gives India an assured second strike capability, which when coupled with India's stated NFU doctrine with massive retaliation in case of NBC attack on Indian soil or forces anywhere. Gives the doctrine its actual teeth.
Some circles in Pakistan have always believed, if they can produce and launch enough nuclear weapons on India in its first strike. They can avoid MAD scenario.
Now such a scenario is not possible.

Secondly a SLBM launch from Arabian sea, gives Pakistan, no reaction time. 1999, during height of Kargil war, when Pakistan army started preparing it nuclear weapons, the movement was picked up by American satellites and Pakistanis were warned by Americans.
This process of mating warheads with missiles gives an enemy a clear warning can be picked up enemy intelligence.

However a nuclear powered SSBN which can deployed months in advance and launch weapons at moments notice can not picked up by the enemy.

The point of nukes is to be seen, if the Pakistani nukes weren't seen, what effect would they have? I mean unless they actually used it which is just as insane as it sounds.

 

[Hellfire]

Completion of Nuclear Triad does make a lot of difference, in India-Pakistan scenario as well.

A SSBN gives India an assured second strike capability, which when coupled with India's stated NFU doctrine with massive retaliation in case of NBC attack on Indian soil or forces anywhere. Gives the doctrine its actual teeth.
Some circles in Pakistan have always believed, if they can produce and launch enough nuclear weapons on India in its first strike. They can avoid MAD scenario.
Now such a scenario is not possible.

Secondly a SLBM launch from Arabian sea, gives Pakistan, no reaction time. 1999, during height of Kargil war, when Pakistan army started preparing it nuclear weapons, the movement was picked up by American satellites and Pakistanis were warned by Americans.
This process of mating warheads with missiles gives an enemy a clear warning can be picked up enemy intelligence.

However a nuclear powered SSBN which can deployed months in advance and launch weapons at moments notice can not picked up by the enemy.

A theoretical deployment of Indian SSBNs. The Indian SSBNs will not be deployed in that direction ... your this post is something that the Pakistanis will justify for their program. One has to be very clear in delinking Indian SSBN program from Pakistan as present status of nuclear preparedness is sufficient to deal with Pakistan ....

It is the opinion of Western naval and nuclear warfare experts that BOTH Chinese and Indian nuclear subs could ONLY launch fom just off their coastlines behind a protective curtain. Because they (their technology) was still too noisy to not be able to be picked up by lurking American subs the moment they came out from behind their protective curtain. They are also pretty confident that they already have the acoustic signatures of both nations' nuclear subs, which makes what Oscar is pretty directly alluding to pretty much an academic discussion?

Depends. At present there is no denying the capability of US to pick off any target from hundreds of kilometers away in terms of designation, platform and even the capability of the platform coming on their observation. However, as Bad Guy, the banned, points out it is more of force projection in IOR for India and will continue to be so for the mid to long term .... even SCS, I do not see any moves by China to block access to India, as it is also not in their interest to go on that path as India has yet again refrained from taking an anti China position on question of joint patrolling of SCS. That does not mean that India does not go into SCS, on the contrary, India actively moves into SCS even though the Chinese maritime assets shadowing them will keep warning heaven and hell .....

 

[Viper0011.]

India completes the nuclear triad, turning South Asia’s strategic equation on its head

That entire equation is about to be set on its head. India is undertaking the final trials of its first nuclear-armed Arihant-class submarine, which would make it the sixth country in the world capable of launching atomic weapons from air, land and maritime platforms, unnamed Indian officials have told the media. The INS Arihant could be commissioned as early as this month, providing India with a ‘second-strike’ capability – giving it a significant edge over Pakistan for the first time since the 1998 tests.

Apparently the author isn't up to date on global military developments, nor he knows too much about Pakistan's current situation. Just because Pakistan doesn't have a nuke submarine, I think they've announced it many times, that it doesn't mean that they don't have modified Augusta's with tub launched missiles from the Torpedo tubes.

There was a lot of noise on a test last year where the speculation was that "Pakistan modified the Harpoons", but the reality was that no Harpoon was tested. Pakistan used that mechanism to test out its own sea-launching capability.

Someone needs to smack the author of this dated article and tell him to wake the eff up and do some research before writing paid articles for marketing purposes. Its the stupidest thing to think that the entire Pakistani defense is focused on India, and all these time, knowing that India has been working on Arihant, and other sea based projects, the Pakistanis have been enjoying deep sound sleep . You read these "infomercial" articles and it just sounds so stupid to know the writers majority of the time have no real understanding of the affairs they are writing about. Love it

 

[Hellfire]

I find the NFU policy of India a little risky.
It should be
1. No nukes against non nuke nation.
2. NFU against only those nations which have a NFU. Means an agreement of no nuke exchange with that nation.

3. First Nuke strike possible against nation which do not have either NFU policy or an defence agreement with India.

NFU is only against non nuke states .... lol ..... the imminent use of nuclear weapons opens our options ... so that is technically First Use...

wow you are talking about nuke war like a play of children living safely in UAE.
God forbid if this kind of exchange ever takes place. India will never nuke pakistan first, I hope
pakistani establishment is not suicidal.

sub kiloton weapons can be used in south Asian battlefield. Both Pakistan and Indian armies practice with that scenario in mind... the fallout of significant levels will be bare minimum .....

 

[desimorty]

It would be illogical. India is the bigger fish, so the only way to keep a bigger fish at bay is to constantly threaten it with madness.

Source: India completes the nuclear triad, turning South Asia’s strategic equation on its head | Page 3

Theres also the chance of them calling the bluff a bluff.

 

[Hellfire]

Apparently the author isn't up to date on global military developments, nor he knows too much about Pakistan's current situation. Just because Pakistan doesn't have a nuke submarine, I think they've announced it many times, that it doesn't mean that they don't have modified Augusta's with tub launched missiles from the Torpedo tubes.

There was a lot of noise on a test last year where the speculation was that "Pakistan modified the Harpoons", but the reality was that no Harpoon was tested. Pakistan used that mechanism to test out its own sea-launching capability.

Someone needs to smack the author of this dated article and tell him to wake the eff up and do some research before writing paid articles for marketing purposes. Its the stupidest thing to think that the entire Pakistani defense is focused on India, and all these time, knowing that India has been working on Arihant, and other sea based projects, the Pakistanis have been enjoying deep sound sleep . You read these "infomercial" articles and it just sounds so stupid to know the writers majority of the time have no real understanding of the affairs they are writing about. Love it

couldn't you make it out of the discussion so far? Half of the people don't know or don't care to know, even professionals and the majority of remainder write holocaust as if a single weapon will write of the world ... wonder if those atmospheric tests by the P-5 in 40-70s actually happened then? lol

 

[Viper0011.]

couldn't you make it out of the discussion so far? Half of the people don't know or don't care to know, even professionals and the majority of remainder write holocaust as if a single weapon will write of the world ... wonder if those atmospheric tests by the P-5 in 40-70s actually happened then? lol

I have no idea what you are trying to say....answer my post with some facts may be a good start?