Afghanistan's brother Pakistan trumps friend India
By Uddipan Mukherjee
Column: Machine GunPublished: March 17, 2010TOOLBAR
Kolkata, India — It’s time for India to pack up and leave Afghanistan, as no one wants it to stay there anymore. The Taliban and the Pakistani government never wanted it in the first place, and now even its friend Afghan President Hamid Karzai – admittedly under pressure – no longer wants India to interfere in the country’s affairs. It is just a matter of time now till India withdraws; only the modalities need to be sorted out.
Karzai’s visit to Pakistan on March 10, during which he agreed to arrange a series of peace “jirgas” – decision-making assemblies with male elders or tribal leaders – with “active Pakistani involvement” made it clear that finally U.S.-Pakistan camaraderie in the global war on terror is bearing true fruit.
The United States has disbursed the Kerry-Lugar aid package – financial assistance to strengthen Pakistan's civilian institutions – to the civil administration of Pakistan. In return, the Pakistani authorities have acted with energy in tightening the noose around the Taliban by pumping in resources to the country’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas in order to continue the military offensive.
Ground operations in Pakistan’s Swat valley have also gone forward with enthusiasm. And to add to the list of accomplishments, several top Taliban commanders have been arrested in Pakistan, the big fish being Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, second in the hierarchy to Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban’s top leader.
Pakistan should be praised for its cunning diplomatic moves. It has appeased the Americans by acting against the Taliban without totally alienating the Taliban.
Moreover, the civil administration seems to have handled pressures from the judiciary well, at least for the time being. Furthermore, President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani configured proper arrangements with the chief of army staff Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, evident from the service extension of Ahmad Shuja Pasha, the chief of Pakistan’s spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence.
India, however, appears to have bungled its own diplomatic initiatives. It did invest substantial finances in rebuilding war-torn Afghanistan, even completing the 200-kilometer Delaram-Zaranj highway. But it was never unambiguous in its approach.
What did India actually want to achieve in Afghanistan? Did it want to thwart Pakistani efforts to establish strategic depth? Did it wish to use Afghanistan as a springboard into resource-rich Central Asia? Or was it just an economic venture? Only India’s foreign policy establishment can answer these queries.
Nevertheless, today even Karzai has come to terms with reality. He knows that in order to entrench himself in the seat of authority, he has to do three things.
First, he should be on mutually agreeable terms with the Americans. Thus, he must negotiate with the Pakistani government.
Second, he needs to bring the Taliban – either the “good” or the “bad” or both – to the discussion table. To implement that, he must again appeal to the Pakistanis because of their close links with key Taliban leaders.
Third, in order to make the first two issues a reality, he must not alienate the Pakistani civil-military elite in any manner. Thus, a natural corollary is to maintain a safe distance from the Indians.
All of the above three moves would directly hurt Indian interests in the region.
Actually, India’s calculations regarding Afghanistan were spectacularly misleading. It probably believed, definitely on an emotional note, that the United States could be bought by the nuclear deal, its vote against Iran, stalling the Indo-Iran gas pipeline and other nice rhetoric.
But the United States wanted a far stronger ally, which could bring not only finances but also military might into Afghanistan if needed. And India vacillated on this point, torn by Gandhi-Nehru doctrinal ideology and post-Cold War realities.
Finally, India succumbed to indecision, which has been the hallmark of Indian foreign policy ever since the country gained independence.
So when the India-educated Karzai says, “India is a close friend of Afghanistan but Pakistan is a brother of Afghanistan. Pakistan is a twin brother. We are conjoined twins, there’s no separation,” India surely must shiver.
In fact, this was inevitable and the signs were long apparent, at the London Conference on Afghanistan in January for example. India just did not pick up the signals on its radar, or perhaps simply did not heed the vibrations on the screen – which seems most likely.
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(Uddipan Mukherjee has a doctorate in physics from the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research in Mumbai, India. He writes on international relations and security issues pertaining to India. He blogs at:
Machine Gun. ©Copyright Uddipan Mukherjee.)
Afghanistan's brother Pakistan trumps friend India - upiasia.com
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