INDIA-AFGHAN RELATIONS: ROAD TO NOWHERE? – ANALYSIS

[pakistani342]

Decent piece by Shakti Sinha, former civil servant who has worked in Afghanistan for the UN for three years and coordinated donor support for the Afghanistan National Development Strategy.

Article here, excerpts below:

The fast-changing situation in Kabul with a new president heading a government of national unity, the end of NATO and US’ combat roles and increased insecurity poses severe challenges for India

....Attention to Afghanistan seems to have slipped below the horizon even though the Indian mission in Herat was attacked just before Modi assumed office...

...

In this whole narrative, India seems missing in action. This is understandable since there can be no doubt that the Pakistani army is the key to peace in Afghanistan, and only the Chinese have leverage over them. Seeing the weakness of the Afghan security forces and the increased insecurity of Afghanistan, President Ghani has little option but in engaging with both these actors.

 

[Joeblow]

Good article. Paints a realistic picture of the ground realities. I think the deciding factor in how afghanistan turns out will be how much control Pakistan has left over the Taliban. I think the problem will be Pakistan has nothing to offer Afghanistan in the way of financial assistance, development or infrastructure. This means they will need China to finance and build all this. Obviously, China will expect a peaceful environment before they put up the money. So Pakistan's ability to control its proxies is going to be paramount in all this.
A longer term strategy for India would be to work on getting the sanctions lifted off of Iran. But the amount of time and effort required to accomplish this is going to be massive and might not be worth the effort just to gain access to some poor central Asian countries.