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India Acts to Curb Chinese Imports

RiazHaq

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India's government has sent letters to the country's telecom companies ordering them not to buy equipment from Huawei, ZTE, and several other Chinese companies due to security risks, according to a report in Businessweek. A few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reported that there was a similar move by Delhi to limit China's growing role in building India's power sector.

Growing Chinese Imports:

India's imports from China expanded 19 per cent and stood at US$ 32.49 billion in 2008-09, while exports were at US$ 9.35 billion. India's trade deficit with China is expected to grow larger this year, a trend India considers alarming given the nature of imports that go into India's essential infrastructure of power generation and telecommunications networks.

Power Sector:

Chinese are now supplying equipment for about 25% of the new generating capacity India is adding to its national grid, up from almost nothing a few years ago. There are thousands of skilled Chinese expatriates at Indian plant sites, along with Chinese chefs, Chinese television and ping pong.

Telecom Sector:

India is already the biggest export market for China's two leading telecom equipment manufacturers, Huawei Technologies and ZTE, as both companies have focused on India in recent years. As India has grown to the world's No. 2 mobile phone market in recent years, its imports of Chinese handsets have soared.

Unlike China, India lacks the necessary industrial and manufacturing base for greater self reliance in infrastructure equipment and defense armaments. India also runs large current account deficits while China is enjoying large surpluses strengthening its economic position in the world.

Defense Equipment:

India is overwhelmingly dependent on foreign imports, mainly Russian and Israeli, for about 70 per cent of its defense requirement, especially for critical military products and high-end defense technology, according to an Indian defense analyst Dinesh Kumar. Kumar adds that "India’s defense ministry officially admits to attaining only 30 to 35 per cent self-reliance capability for its defense requirement. But even this figure is suspect given that India’s self-reliance mostly accrues from transfer of technology, license production and foreign consultancy despite considerable investment in time and money".

On the same theme, Russian newspaper Kommersant reported that "India has had little success with military equipment production, and has had problems producing Russian Su-30MKI fighter jets and T-90S tanks, English Hawk training jets and French Scorpene submarines."

India does export some armaments but its modest record of producing and exporting weapon systems is evident from the fact that India’s defense annual exports averaged only US$ 88 million between 2006-07 and 2008-09. By contrast, Pakistan exported $300 million worth of military hardware and munitions last year.

Alternatives:

India is looking for alternative sources for critical imports to reduce its dependence on the Chinese and Russians. But it faces an uphill task with Chinese imports in particular. China has become the biggest and the most efficient factory for the world's largest American, European and Japanese companies. Even if it does manage to find non-Chinese sources, India will have to pay much higher prices for such imports. And these imports may still contain crucial Chinese components which dominate the international supply chain for most non-Chinese companies, continuing its dependence on the Chinese.

On the defense side, India has begun to diversify away from Russia. Israelis have become major suppliers to India, and the US and Europeans are now bidding to sell military hardware to India. Both Israeli and Western equipment carries significantly higher price tags than imports from Russia.

Haq's Musings: Soaring Chinese Imports Worry India
 
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Here's an interesting commentary by Sudha Ramachandra about India's future prospects:

The populations of Europe and Japan are already graying, and the working-age populations of the United States and China are projected to shrink too in the next two decades. By 2020 the US will be short 17 million people of working age, China 10 million, Japan 9 million and Russia 6 million. However, India will have a surplus of 47 million people, giving the country a competitive edge in labor costs, which will be sustainable up to 2050, according to a study by Goldman Sachs.

Economists say India will catch up with the Chinese economy beginning in 2030, when the latter could cool off as the result of an aging population. "The window of opportunity offered by a population bulge has clearly opened for India," points out noted economist C P Chandrasekhar of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. After decades of evoking despair, India's demographic profile is finally beginning to stir hope.

But not everyone views the population bulge with such optimism. Some analysts say it is not enough to have a young population. The working-age population needs to be healthy and literate.

India's score on this, while improving, is certainly not inspiring. About 50% of all Indian children are undernourished, a large percentage of them born with protein deficiency (which affects brain development and learning capacity, among other things). This is hardly the ideal foundation for a productive workforce, as the likelihood of a malnourished child growing up to be an able adult is rather dim.

There is also the question of whether the population has the skills and knowledge to take on India's future work. Literacy has improved dramatically over the years - just 14% of the population was literate in 1947 versus about 64.8% today - but many who are classified as literate can barely read or write. And 40% of those who enroll in primary schools drop out by age 10. The curriculum in the schools, especially the government-run ones, does not prepare the child for the domestic job market, let alone the global one. The huge "workforce" might not be qualified to do the work.

Moreover, India's rich and educated classes are preferring to have small families, so the additions to the population are coming largely from the poor, illiterate sections in society. Nicholas Eberstadt, who researches demographics at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, points out that while India's overall population profile will remain relatively youthful, "this is an arithmetic expression averaging diverse components of a vast nation. Closer examination reveals two demographically distinct Indias: the north that stays remarkably young over the next 20 years, and a south already graying rapidly due to low fertility."

Yet India's north is far more backward than the south. On almost every socio-economic indicator the north scores poorly. The young population that the country is setting its hopes on might not be qualified to take up the challenge.

There is a danger of India squandering its demographic edge if it does not act rapidly to invest in human capital. India's population policy - it was the first in the world to come out with one - has hitherto focused on population control. This was essential given the large population base and the high growth rate. Steps were taken to limit family size, and incentives were given to couples to adopt permanent birth-control measures.

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan
 
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Here's an interesting commentary by Sudha Ramachandra about India's future prospects:

The populations of Europe and Japan are already graying, and the working-age populations of the United States and China are projected to shrink too in the next two decades. By 2020 the US will be short 17 million people of working age, China 10 million, Japan 9 million and Russia 6 million. However, India will have a surplus of 47 million people, giving the country a competitive edge in labor costs, which will be sustainable up to 2050, according to a study by Goldman Sachs.

Economists say India will catch up with the Chinese economy beginning in 2030, when the latter could cool off as the result of an aging population. "The window of opportunity offered by a population bulge has clearly opened for India," points out noted economist C P Chandrasekhar of Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. After decades of evoking despair, India's demographic profile is finally beginning to stir hope.

But not everyone views the population bulge with such optimism. Some analysts say it is not enough to have a young population. The working-age population needs to be healthy and literate.

India's score on this, while improving, is certainly not inspiring. About 50% of all Indian children are undernourished, a large percentage of them born with protein deficiency (which affects brain development and learning capacity, among other things). This is hardly the ideal foundation for a productive workforce, as the likelihood of a malnourished child growing up to be an able adult is rather dim.

There is also the question of whether the population has the skills and knowledge to take on India's future work. Literacy has improved dramatically over the years - just 14% of the population was literate in 1947 versus about 64.8% today - but many who are classified as literate can barely read or write. And 40% of those who enroll in primary schools drop out by age 10. The curriculum in the schools, especially the government-run ones, does not prepare the child for the domestic job market, let alone the global one. The huge "workforce" might not be qualified to do the work.

Moreover, India's rich and educated classes are preferring to have small families, so the additions to the population are coming largely from the poor, illiterate sections in society. Nicholas Eberstadt, who researches demographics at the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, points out that while India's overall population profile will remain relatively youthful, "this is an arithmetic expression averaging diverse components of a vast nation. Closer examination reveals two demographically distinct Indias: the north that stays remarkably young over the next 20 years, and a south already graying rapidly due to low fertility."

Yet India's north is far more backward than the south. On almost every socio-economic indicator the north scores poorly. The young population that the country is setting its hopes on might not be qualified to take up the challenge.

There is a danger of India squandering its demographic edge if it does not act rapidly to invest in human capital. India's population policy - it was the first in the world to come out with one - has hitherto focused on population control. This was essential given the large population base and the high growth rate. Steps were taken to limit family size, and incentives were given to couples to adopt permanent birth-control measures.

Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

Third thread on which this article from May 2006 has been posted within the last 15 minutes. Useless attempt to divert attention of members to frivolous posts from 2006. Some amusing stuff.
 
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Third thread on which this article from May 2006 has been posted within the last 15 minutes. Useless attempt to divert attention of members to frivolous posts from 2006. Some amusing stuff.

lol this gonna post many times in future.. .
Just ignore the thread.dunt reply post to bashing threads. ..
 
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On India's dependence on imports, I think the Russian Kommersant has it right when it says: "India has had little success with military equipment production, and has had problems producing Russian Su-30MKI fighter jets and T-90S tanks, English Hawk training jets and French Scorpene submarines."

And here's how blogger Vijainder Thakur sees India's loose meaning of "indigenous" Smerch and other imports:

The Russians will come here set up the plant for us and supply the critical manufacturing machinery. Indian labor and technical management will run the plant which will simply assemble the system. Critical components and the solid propellant rocket motor fuel will still come from Perm Powder Mill. However, bureaucrats in New Delhi and the nation as a whole will be happy. The Smerch system will be proudly paraded on Rajpath every republic day as an indigenous weapon system.

A decade or so down the line, Smerch will get outdated and India will negotiate a new deal with Russia for the license production of a new multiple rocket system for the Indian Army.

China will by then have developed its own follow up system besides having used the solid propellant motors to develop other weapon systems and assist its space research program.

India's unenviable reputation as an Arms Manufacturer

China and India Make Smerch Rockets - Kommersant Moscow
 
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