In my opinion....Surgical strikes in S.Asia should be considered nothing more than precursor to a full blown war....
On what basis are you claiming this? How can a few aerial strikes in Pak-Occ-Kash lead to a full blown war? When a big intrusion like Kargil remained local , why do you think that some strikes will have greater implications? ( Think our soft attitude is precisely what Pakistani's take as cowardice)
So I personally wont like to comment on surgical strikes as they are a very blatant sign of aggression....Nevetheless...I am for going against terrorists (India centric) using special forces...
So lets leave this out of the discussion
Special forces may or may not be a good option as some places ( like valleys etc.) may have obvious approaches which can be guarded easily. Guess the strategy should be a mixed bag and we shouldn't back down. If Pakistan can carry out terrorism in JAK for 20 years on the pre-text of it being a "DISPUTED" territory then so can we. However lets leave the issue of surgical strikes for a later discussion.
To be very honest...the more this OBL fiasco unfolds, the more Im inclined to think that the PAF F-16s will become a non player for Pak in future war scenario (if at all).....
I think the JFT is something to be looked at with a keen eye since that can easily change the numbers game when coupled with the AWACs + refuellers
In case of a full blown war...PAF will be tasked with defending its borders....Its offensive capability is marred by the fact that they lack a solid air defence and that the numbers arent in their favor...currently
More or less I agree with you.
As mentioned....Surgical strikes are not as easy as many here make them out to be....
Apart from the military implications, the country needs to have
a) solid proof ie. Dont bomb a village full of civilians thinking they are terrorists...even if they are terrorists...the ability to change the story lies with the victim and can really hurt the attacker from a political standpoint....NOTE: India is no USA
b) Political will....
c) A strategic goal.....What next? What does one do once these terrorists camps are bombed...Is India going for Kashmir?....teach Pak a lesson?....where does it stop
d) Is the country ready to face war....ie. Be ready to defend Mumbai which will be target #1 for Pak
Debated earlier. I don't see how dropping few bombs on alleged terrorist camps in a "DISPUTED" territory can result in a full blown war. I am sure RAW will be able to provide that SOLID proof. At any rate , UN is going to listen to India ( esp when a few hundred respectable citizens of various nationalities get butchered). The strike will have a messaging effect that India is no more ready to take the punishment lying down. I mean seriously , how many terrorists have we persecuted by law in the last 10 years. ( My guess would be no more than 100. Kasab is still alive and the Pakistanis still call it an inside job. Can it get any worse? )
So frankly...NO
India will not opt for surgical strikes...
But this does not mean we lose....This means that the Pak "deep state" that has sheltered these fringe elements will be weakened through economic sanctions, losing allies and clout....India just needs to have calm nerves and wait it out....
Unlike most hyperactive members looking for any excuse to nuke....India should be cold and calculated....we know the numbers, tech, economy and political clout is in our favor....and the enemy knows it even better....Their main goal will be to make us blink first.....
PAF attacking India would be a suicide mission....at least at this stage of the decade
I think you're attributing the comments of Pakistanis on this forum to the state of Pak....
Trust me....kids high on hormones are not to be used as a benchmark for Pakistani reaction....Just as India has its excited electrons....so does Pak....
Any move by Pak will be equally calculated....and trust me....No country is suicidal....one would call their actions suicidal only post outcome of their actions...
Not really... I think once distortion and deception become part of your mindset. When terms like perennial enemy become common place and when a country starts getting ruled by a military ( be it pseudo or real) then we should be wary of the nation.
In the end , I think there are a lot of Pakistani nationals ,who are educated and progressive ( esp. those in big cities and abroad) ,who think rationally and gun for peace. Having said that , I believe that majority of people reside in small towns and villages and are fed by a constant propaganda machine. This disillusionment then carries on to the cities where a large percentage of middle class get converted to pseudo Jihadis.
As an outsider , I see a lot of problems in Pakistan. I wont say these are not in India. Many of them are similar ( in nature & scale). The difference is that whereas India has found a way to co-exist , to progress even in chaos , Pakistan has tried to define herself as anything which is not India. This feeling has transcended down to every facet of their civil society and has provided fodder to Mullahs and war-mongers alike.
Understand the post is a bit of digression , but guess at the end of the day , military is representative & reflection of the state . Dont see PAF or PA gaining any edge over IAF or IA till Pakistan comes out of the economic , political and more importantly intellectual turmoil that she is in.
