In a wartime clock from start to finish how long will it take Pakistan to conquer India - 2yr, 5yr or 10yr campaign

[HttpError]

MAC address then :p

MAC spoofing also exists, he can simply use a vps or virtual machine to hide all that.

 

[Knockingdoors]

Interesting read. Pakistan in its current form would be hard pressed to capture significant Indian territory outside of Kashmir.

To give you an indea of why I say the above see the American civil war it took the Union 5+ years without any foreign intervention and a significant resupply and industrial capability to win a war of iteration.

In the current Russia ukrain war it is clear that the mechanized Russian army was able to advance 80+ kms a day with complete air superiority and was very susceptible to a well intrenched enemy with ATGMs etc.

Pakistan would face similar risk in india once we come out of the desert into cities and towns. India will have air superiority in their territory and our aircraft can not maneuver beyond 500 kms in india. We don’t have massive air refueling capability which would reduce our sorry rates to protect ground troops over 500 kms from Pakistans border. The civilian population would also be against PA in regular India.

In Kashmir the story would be different. Kashmir is within 500 kms of major Pakistani air bases. Once Enemy air defenses are gone, the Indian forces would have to fight two enemies 15 million pro Pakistani civilians and a determined paksitan army. This would considerably reduce their maneuverability and resupply.

This can be seen by how the Indian military installations are setup I.e. like mini fortresses in Kashmir . In time of war these would see problems of resupply and continuous attacks from insurgents, Pakistani drones and artillery and infantry attacks.

So Kashmir I believe with Chinese assistance and resupply can be taken in 13 days or less very similar to Bangladesh. Rest of India without any resupply from the world in 5 years

The thing with JK or Laddakh is that it has no stragetic significiance especially if you wanna reduce the Indian capabilities or threat entirely from the area hence bare minimum pushing them to 50 to 100 miles south of Hydarabad could be a key deconfliction line like by pushing them to that limit which could be doable in much faster timeline.

I geninuely don't think this can be compared to what the Russians ran into in Ukraine because the Russians are actully fighting somewhat a solid foe something that can't be said about the indians. They haven't seen wars in a long time and it will become surreal for them if they one day happen to find themselves in one and I mean the civilians. If Pakistan was capable of creating a harsh environment it could strike valuable fear doctrine campaign if they were to soften them up mentally this will come handy. I have noticed once a successful fear campaign is done armies tend to fall like house of cards because they have already morally fallen before engagement look what happened to ANA or Iraq army etc etc they were acting bizarrely like headless chickens. The fear doctrine is crucial element which is not talked about or explored it can paralyze a whole army from top to bottom.

The Rashidun blitzkrieg, German Blitzkrieg during WW2 or Mongol Blitzkrieg had all one thing in common. ''their engagement pre-game fear campaign'' was second to none... terrorizing the foe before engagement to the point where they think this is gonna be a living horror fear it paralysis

 

[Bilal9]

So - this is one question about the difference between CAN and SHOULD?

I know Pakistan CAN invade India but SHOULD it?

What will you do with the occupants? There are 1.4 Billion of them.

Just a philosophical question - and the philosophizing should come before any action.

MAC spoofing also exists, he can simply use a vps or virtual machine to hide all that.

Exactly. You can proxy through any machine out their on the Internet, even free VM's in the cloud. Source IP could be anywhere.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Ludicrous post.

Hindus do not want to be part of Pakistan.

 

[Knockingdoors]

Ludicrous post.

Hindus do not want to be part of Pakistan.

Losers don't become choosers..

History is always written by winners and borders a drawn by winners also

 

[Trango Towers]

Why would pakistan want to conquer India.
Pakistan had only the issue of Kashmir.
If that's resolved we will live in peace.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Why would pakistan want to conquer India.
Pakistan had only the issue of Kashmir.
If that's resolved we will live in peace.

Exactly, we just want what is rightfully ours, and that is Kashmir.

Otherwise the Hindus also have a right to have their own country.

 

[UK_PAKISTANI]

India can’t defeat Pakistan militarily, says book​

NEW DELHI: India has no clarity about its military and strategic objectives vis-à-vis its stated adversaries, Pakistan and China, and can defeat neither of them in a war, a new book by N.C. Asthana, former Indian police officer respected for his insights into security affairs, says.

The Wire on Tuesday carried a review of the book National Security and Conventional Arms Race: Spectre of a Nuclear War. It quotes the book as seeing “a huge mismatch between the militaristic official and media rhetoric, on the one hand, and the reality, which is that India cannot defeat either country militarily”.

The reviewer, Siddharth Varadarajan, editor of the esteemed current affairs portal, quotes Asthana as suggesting that instead of pouring vast sums of money into expensive weapons imports, India would be better served by finding solutions to the security challenges both Pakistan and China present by strengthening itself internally and pursuing non-military solutions, including diplomacy.

Asthana also puts the lens on what he calls the “politics of warmongering”, which, according to him, has consumed public discourse in India over the past six years.

“Under the delusion that India has somehow, magically become invincible, he notes how a large number of Indians seem to be itching for a war.”

This invincibility narrative is both fuelled and strengthened by relentless arms imports. Asthana puts the figure India has spent on arms imports in the five years since 2014 at $14 billion, “and the undisclosed cost of the 36 Rafale jets purchased from Dassault Aviation is not included in this”.

But even this sum pales before the $130bn India is projected to spend on arms imports in the next decade, including on 100-plus even more expensive fighter jets to make up for the shortfall caused by the Modi government’s decision to scrap the earlier deal for 126 Rafales.

“As the fanfare over the arrival of the first Rafales showed, each of these purchases is hailed and sold to the public by the media as weapons that will flatten India’s enemies. But of course, this is far from the truth,” Varadarajan quotes the book as saying.

Asthana argues that the frenzied import of conventional weapons will never guarantee a permanent solution to the military problem posed by Pakistan or China because both the countries are nuclear-weapon states and cannot be decisively defeated on the battlefield.

“Given the myth of Indian invincibility, the futility of warmongering should be obvious. Yet, as the past few years have demonstrated, jingoism in India is at an all-time high,” the book notes.

“While conventional weapons can provide a tactical advantage in limited theatre conflicts short of war, the danger lies in escalation — which is hard to control at the best of times but especially so when the public discourse has been vitiated by the politics of warmongering.”

Asthana believes that exploiting enmity with Pakistan for electoral benefits has made Indian leaders victims of their own rhetoric, where they are left with a one-dimensional policy — one which is unrealistic in view of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. Quoting Napoleon, he notes: “If they want peace, nations should avoid the pinpricks that precede cannon shots.”

------------------------------------------

This is from a 2020 book.. I agree with some parts of his takes but there are other parts which he has not taken into count ''what if Pakistan launches mass offensive'' or where doctrine is based on offensive solely meaning a much more ambitious approach from the Pakistani side could literally throw spin into everything. Meaning preparing for such an offensive will call for probably the biggest land-offensive in scale ever carried out in history but Pakistan has the manpower to commit to such a vast scale offensive. The Indians are suspect hence in such scenario I would put the house on pakistan getting it done in 3 years max assuming this is an ambitious Pakistan but the result is completely depended on Pakistan's appraoches and manuvers including scale of ambitions

Im Sorry, as it stands, Pakistan can't conquer India. It's not gonna happen.
BUT events happen and situations change.

If the next China India border skirmish gets out of control ( this came very close to happening in Galwan)
Or China feels threatened enough to make a example of the weakest member of the Quad (India )
Then it game on and a very plausible outcome.

Odds are the next war between India and China ( I believe it's just a matter of time now ) will be bigger than the last.
If so, the main attack will come from Pakistan, with China attacking Ladakh and north east India.
Pakistan would get massive Chinese support, India would get some support from USA.

Many Influential Chinese think tanks have already simulated and war gamed this.
They don't want all future Indian's hating them for the next century or so,
They much rather Pakistan be seen as one giving the killer blow and the bad guy in this.

They want to show the world they are not a push over militarily and can compete with the west.
They would go flat out to end India as stands now.
India could end up losing JK and Ladakh, south Tibet, seven sisters and more.
It will be the end of India, Pakistan will be devastated and may never recover, but Pakistan will have to fight like a cornered tiger and
Play every hand it has.
With a bit of luck, India would disintegrate and have her borders corrected by Pakistan and China.
CPEC would go through Ladakh , Khalistan and Pakistanis would be drinking tea in the new capital, New New Delhi .

Or it could end up a nuclear bloodbath with the whole Indian subcontinent being a nuclear wasteland for the next few centuries or so
With the Pakistani's wondering what went wrong with "Ghazwa-e-Hind" and some remaining dark skinned Indians vegetarians
becoming cannibals and even more dark skinned.

Take your pick, I prefer to stay optimistic.

 

[paritosh]

We dont need to invade india, maybe just for diversion, but our main focus should be Kashmir and laddakh. Its the only area we can easily keep and defend after taking over. A massive and hard push through the working boundary through pathankot straight to chinese border, cutting off all of J&K and laddakh.

That kind of thinking got you the 1965 "victory".

 

[cloud4000]

This is from a 2020 book.. I agree with some parts of his takes but there are other parts which he has not taken into count ''what if Pakistan launches mass offensive'' or where doctrine is based on offensive solely meaning a much more ambitious approach from the Pakistani side could literally throw spin into everything. Meaning preparing for such an offensive will call for probably the biggest land-offensive in scale ever carried out in history but Pakistan has the manpower to commit to such a vast scale offensive. The Indians are suspect hence in such scenario I would put the house on pakistan getting it done in 3 years max assuming this is an ambitious Pakistan but the result is completely depended on Pakistan's appraoches and manuvers including scale of ambitions

I presume India will just ignore its neighbor while it builds up forces on its border and not make precautions, including preemptive strikes?

And what exactly are the strategic goals of such an exercise? Did you take into account strategic and tactical nuclear weapons? Do you expect Indians to treat invaders as liberators?

 

[TNT]

That kind of thinking got you the 1965 "victory".

It showed how easily we could cut off JK and laddakh from india. India had to invade IB to avoid that.

 

[Black Vigo]

The days of conquering are long gone this time a war will destroy everything because it will be a nuclear war

 

[Khan vilatey]

The thing with JK or Laddakh is that it has no stragetic significiance especially if you wanna reduce the Indian capabilities or threat entirely from the area hence bare minimum pushing them to 50 to 100 miles south of Hydarabad could be a key deconfliction line like by pushing them to that limit which could be doable in much faster timeline.

I geninuely don't think this can be compared to what the Russians ran into in Ukraine because the Russians are actully fighting somewhat a solid foe something that can't be said about the indians. They haven't seen wars in a long time and it will become surreal for them if they one day happen to find themselves in one and I mean the civilians. If Pakistan was capable of creating a harsh environment it could strike valuable fear doctrine campaign if they were to soften them up mentally this will come handy. I have noticed once a successful fear campaign is done armies tend to fall like house of cards because they have already morally fallen before engagement look what happened to ANA or Iraq army etc etc they were acting bizarrely like headless chickens. The fear doctrine is crucial element which is not talked about or explored it can paralyze a whole army from top to bottom.

The Rashidun blitzkrieg, German Blitzkrieg during WW2 or Mongol Blitzkrieg had all one thing in common. ''their engagement pre-game fear campaign'' was second to none... terrorizing the foe before engagement to the point where they think this is gonna be a living horror fear it paralysis

I don’t agree with the analysis, Kashmir like Afghanistan allows access to Russia , China and more so strategically it’s paramount. A lot of rivers in Pakistan also flow from Kashmir so this is an imperative objective.

I also don’t believe the Indian population outside of Kashmir will support a Pakistani move just like the Pakistani people will rally behind their army. So after the first 2 weeks it will turn into a war of iteration. Where China will supply Pakistan and the west and maybe Russia will supply india. The problem is that Indian equipment is Russian and getting spares will be hard. If it comes to it, without the use of nuclear weapons we are looking at 5 year slog

K

 

[AZMwi]

first our military needs bal*s to attack india which they lack

 

[Khan vilatey]

first our military needs bal*s to attack india which they lack

It’s not a b$&$? Thing it’s numbers and capability

Simply put Paksitan has a military which Is 650 k strong with para military around 700k

1/4 of this is fighting force 175 army navy and air force while 3/4 525 is used to supply this force every fighting person needs three more to support them.

So with that calculus india has 1.3 million army And another 200 k paramilitary so 1.5 million troops

1/4 of this is fighting force 375 fighting force the rest is supply

This is not enough force to take over Pakistan but Pakistan does not have enough forces to take over india. We don’t have enough equipment to make a difference yet. By mid of 2023 this will be a different conversation

K