In a decade Pakistan reduced poverty by 50%

[EndangeredSpecies]

Its calculated based on population of 200 million. Pakistan have a population growth rate of about 2% and in the 1998 census the population estimate was about 135 million
With 2% growth in 18 years its likely to be 192 million although most agencies calculate Pakistan of about 190 to 200 million

Issue is growth rate of 2% is also calculated based on historical data and changes from time to time. Unless you repeat your measurement you are likely to make mistake over there. Now growth rate is Exponentally related to your population so a change of 2% to 2.5 or 3% for a period of 20 years will produce very large deviation.

Take an example

(1.02) ^ 20 is 1.49
(1.03) ^ 20 is 1.81

Difference in population for a starting of 135 million will be
135 * ( 1.81 - 1.49) = 43 million.

That is no a small error!

 

[Indika]

I think 4$ should be a standard

you cannot have absolute standards like 4$, it also needs to take care of subsidies received, cost of living, price of basket of goods ..etc It should be more holistic in nature 4$ might not be good for urban folks but good for rural area.

 

[Hyde]

The problem is, how do you know it is few million and not several tens of million? How do you know how many people are actually living on 1.9 dollars or more? How do you know how many house-holds have motorcycles or television? How do you know if there are a large number of Afghanis living in your country, legally or illegally?

Lastly, if you have ever taken any basic course in mathematics, you will know that error margins always ADD UP. More calculation you do on your inaccurate data, wider the error margin becomes. Longer you wait, more error you have, Why do you think they do census otherwise from time to time?

Sometimes back I was refering to a report on comparison of country by the Wealth of their people/household. It was by Credit Susie and likes of @RiazHaq quote it often. In that too it mentioned the quality of data for Pakistan was extremely poor, even though the wealth of people was marginally more. For India and China it was fair quality. If you do not have quality data you cannot compare or make any meaningful inference.

Then may be I am expecting too much from Pakistanis.

Technically with digitilisation the census has become almost obsolete.

For example in 2007 I had applied for my identity card which was delivered in UK. I later requested to make an ammendment to it and the ID card was not delivered on time so I went to the embassy without any proof. He asked my name, typed in the system and found 14 people in Pakistan. Then he asked my date of birth and my picture was there on his computer without telling anything. He asked me to wait for a minute as the ID card had been delivered to te embassy after nobody receiving at my address.

The point is, NADRA have details of almost every adult in Pakistan. The NADRA staff use to go o every household to compile data and issue ID cards for free I believe or with very little amount when they were compiling data. In that record not only adults are linked but every child born in Pakistan is linked in the same tree and beside 80 million adults they also have record of all children, adults with photograph and fingerprints and children with birth certificate.

We also had a household survey couple of years ago so the data is there, the census in 2017 will not bring amazing result about the total population thanks to the technology.

 

[Indika]

Dollar isn't a measure of poverty, bottom line should be based on price of necessities. Again necessity is also a relative term.

exactly. We dont need to measure by their standard of metrics.

 

[Hyde]

That is indeed a good fact which is deliberately or so missed by western analysts. Add to that most of the ppl in rural areas dont even pay for electricity and mostly use bartering to get daily commodities like food grains or feed for cattle. All that they want to say is how ppl can survive on 2 dollars bcos 2 dollars has no value in their materialistic society. There are some hard truths about extreme poverty in subcontinent but the western media simply indulges in sensationalizing rather than do investigative journalism.

You raised very good point. If we want to buy a cow, we spend about 200-300 rupees a day for cow food... we pay 75-90 rupees per 1 litre of milk which is technically mixed with water... compare it with my same worker I mentioned earlier who just takes them to nearest fields and the cow eats from there... and gives few litres of milk each day for free... so they get pure milk...

Who is going to see such advantages...

 

[EndangeredSpecies]

Technically with digitilisation the census has become almost obsolete.

For example in 2007 I had applied for my identity card which was delivered in UK. I later requested to make an ammendment to it and the ID card was not delivered on time so I went to the embassy without any proof. He asked my name, typed in the system and found 14 people in Pakistan. Then he asked my date of birth and my picture was there on his computer without telling anything. He asked me to wait for a minute as the ID card had been delivered to te embassy after nobody receiving at my address.

The point is, NADRA have details of almost every adult in Pakistan. The NADRA staff use to go o every household to compile data and issue ID cards for free I believe or with very little amount when they were compiling data. In that record not only adults are linked but every child born in Pakistan is linked in the same tree and beside 80 million adults they also have record of all children, adults with photograph and fingerprints and children with birth certificate.

We also had a household survey couple of years ago so the data is there, the census in 2017 will not bring amazing result about the total population thanks to the technology.

There are two issues here:

1. Any ID issued by government will capture data of those who apply for it. Those who do not or cannot will still be left behind. Census forms a separate dataset to validate this data in the first place. As such it is the ground truth. Purpose of census is to make an effort to count the population by direct measurement and also establish demographics, something that is not captured by a national registration scheme such as NADRA.

2. Surveys work on sample and they also use size of population as an input data. If there is a wide margin of error in this basic data your will get wrong survey results. This is infact the reason why like of Credit Susie are casting a doubt of data quality.

exactly. We dont need to measure by their standard of metrics.

The poverty line is usually given in PPP dollars. That is purchasing power parity dollars which in theory tells you how much you can purchase irrespective of country. Simply put it means, you should be earning enough to purchase goods and services worth 3.1 dollars in USA (in say 2011) every day to be considered above poverty line. AFAIK.

 

[LA se Karachi]

The problem is, how do you know it is few million and not several tens of million?

Oh my, the delusion is strong with this one. Yes, the UN, CIA Factbook, and the World Bank (who all put Pakistan's population between approximately 190-200 million) are all wrong, and you the great "PeegooFeng41" is right, and Pakistan's population is actually 250 million or something, lol. This has to be one of the dumbest things I've read in a while. But tell yourself whatever makes you feel better.

Lastly, if you have ever taken any basic course in mathematics, you will know that error margins always ADD UP. More calculation you do on your inaccurate data, wider the error margin becomes. Longer you wait, more error you have, Why do you think they do census otherwise from time to time?

Man, you are really grasping at straws here. Yup, all of the data collected and/or vetted by international agencies for Pakistan is "inaccurate", and all the "errors" magically add up to something so great, that everything international agencies say are all wrong, and only in a way that makes poverty in Pakistan much higher, not lower, of course.

Sometimes back I was refering to a report on comparison of country by the Wealth of their people/household. It was by Credit Susie and likes of @RiazHaq quote it often. In that too it mentioned the quality of data for Pakistan was extremely poor, even though the wealth of people was marginally more. For India and China it was fair quality. If you do not have quality data you cannot compare or make any meaningful inference.

If you have a problem with the Credit Suisse report, there are plenty of threads on it. This is not one of them. You can cry about it there.

Then may be I am expecting too much from Pakistanis.

I guess some Indians are so brain-washed, that they have to tell themselves that everyone else is wrong, and they alone are right. Why they obsess about Pakistan to begin with is sad enough...

 

[Hyde]

Issue is growth rate of 2% is also calculated based on historical data and changes from time to time. Unless you repeat your measurement you are likely to make mistake over there. Now growth rate is Exponentally related to your population so a change of 2% to 2.5 or 3% for a period of 20 years will produce very large deviation.

Take an example

(1.02) ^ 20 is 1.49
(1.03) ^ 20 is 1.81

Difference in population for a starting of 135 million will be
135 * ( 1.81 - 1.49) = 43 million.

That is no a small error!

The margin of error between 2% to 3% is too much to be true... Almost every child is now born in maternity hospitals in Punjab, Sindh and KPK. There are few maternity hospitals in Balochistan but its population is also very low. The data is entered in the NADRA records as soon as the birth certificate is issued as without Birth Certificate you will not get an admission in the school or anywhere else. Digitilisation has helped a lot, the margin of error is there but it will be very little in the end. Possibly in Balochistan and some parts of Inner Sindh. The Census is likely to range population of 190 to 200 million, more than that is highly unlikely

 

[Narcissist]

Terrible news. My naukars are going to be expensive now.

 

[Hyde]

There are two issues here:

1. Any ID issued by government will capture data of those who apply for it. Those who do not or cannot will still be left behind. Census forms a separate dataset to validate this data in the first place. As such it is the ground truth. Purpose of census is to make an effort to count the population by direct measurement and also establish demographics, something that is not captured by a national registration scheme such as NADRA.

2. Surveys work on sample and they also use size of population as an input data. If there is a wide margin of error in this basic data your will get wrong survey results. This is infact the reason why like of Credit Susie are casting a doubt of data quality.


The poverty line is usually given in PPP dollars. That is purchasing power parity dollars which in theory tells you how much you can purchase irrespective of country. Simply put it means, you should be earning enough to purchase goods and services worth 3.1 dollars in USA (in say 2011) every day to be considered above poverty line. AFAIK.

Actually the reason I am talking about NADRA is that when they started introducing NADRA cards, just like census they went to every part of Pakistan, visited every house and made announcements very similar to census that those who have not applied for ID card must apply now. I believe the standard fees for ID card is 50 rupees (about 45 cents) in 2017 so imagine how much they would be charging in 2007 (I think they were issuing for free). The standard fee for new smart card is 2500 I believe

The point is

Rich people cannot buy a car, open bank account, vote, apply for passport or driving licence

Poor people cannot vote, get benefits like Benazir Income support programme, subsidies, cannot even buy a sim card to make a phone call

Then everybody would want to have an ID card. Ifone member of famiy goes to apply for an ID card, he ends up giving details of every member of his household as the tree is linked with his famiy.

When you have to verify by finger print t buy a sim card, do you think there will be '43 million' people not applying for ID cards.

 

[EndangeredSpecies]

Oh my, the delusion is strong with this one. Yes, the UN, CIA Factbook, and the World Bank (who all put Pakistan's population between approximately 190-200 million are all wrong, and you the great "PeegooFeng41" is right, and Pakistan's population is actually 250 million or something, lol. This has to be one of the dumbest things I've read in a while. But tell yourself whatever makes you feel better.

Man, you are really grasping at straws here. Yup, all of the data collected and/or vetted by international agencies for Pakistan is "inaccurate", and all the "errors" magically add up to something so great, that everything international agencies say are all wrong, and only in a way that makes poverty in Pakistan much higher, not lower, of course.

Did you ever read their reports and their source of data? They often mention it as a sample for survey or more often they depend on the data collected by the government. If government is not doing it even their reports will have wrong data and that is why they also mention in foot notes about data quality, which for Pakistan is usually poor. Doing argument by authority shows that you do not know what you are talking about.

If you have a problem with the Credit Suisse report, there are plenty of threads on it. This is not one of them. You can cry about it there.

I do not have problem with Credit Sussie report but I was showing you one example of a neutral international organization commenting on the data quality for Pakistan. Problem is not Credit Susie, problem is Pakistan's government which cannot even count their populace or determine their demographics.

As I said before, being born idiot is an accident but those like you who want to stay idiot is a choice. No matter how many surveys you do unless you have quality basic data you will end up with unreliable results.

The margin of error between 2% to 3% is too much to be true... Almost every child is now born in maternity hospitals in Punjab, Sindh and KPK. There are few maternity hospitals in Balochistan but its population is also very low. The data is entered in the NADRA records as soon as the birth certificate is issued as without Birth Certificate you will not get an admission in the school or anywhere else. Digitilisation has helped a lot, the margin of error is there but it will be very little in the end. Possibly in Balochistan and some parts of Inner Sindh. The Census is likely to range population of 190 to 200 million, more than that is highly unlikely

Even an error of 0.5 % will lead to a difference of 10 million over a period of 19 years. Growth rate is secondary parameter calculated from the real measurement of population. In country like Pakistan where population growth is not just the natural one but also due to legal/illegal immigration from Afghnistan also happens AND the registration system like NADRA is fairly new it becomes paramount that you validate it before you rely on its data. It was started in 2000 and hasn't been validated by any subsequent census.

Rest all of the measure of population AND demographics / household data unless done directly cannot be validated.

Actually the reason I am talking about NADRA is that when they started introducing NADRA cards, just like census they went to every part of Pakistan, visiter every house and made announcements very similar to census that those who have not applied for ID card must apply now. I believe the standard fees for ID card is 50 rupees (about 45 cents) in 2017 so imagine how much they would be charging in 2007 (I think they were issuing for free).

The point is

Rich people cannot buy a car, open bank account, vote, apply for passport or driving licence

Poor people cannot vote, get benefits like Benazir Income support programme, subsidies, cannot even buy a sim card to make a phone call

Then everybody would want to have an ID card. Ifone member of famiy goes to apply for an ID card, he ends up giving details of every member of his household as the tree is linked with his famiy.

When you have to verify by finger print t buy a sim card, do you think there will be '43 million' people not applying for ID cards.

I do not know how registration is done in Pakistan, usually in these type of registration(s) they set up camp where people go and register. In census they go to individual houses and ASK how many members are there etc. There is a subtle but real difference in intent.

Also you are having a new means of counting, before you use it, you will like to validate it against an older but working means, that is census.

 

[Hyde]

Did you ever read their reports and their source of data? They often mention it as a sample for survey or more often they depend on the data collected by the government. If government is not doing it even their reports will have wrong data and that is why they also mention in foot notes about data quality, which for Pakistan is usually poor. Doing argument by authority shows that you do not know what you are talking about.


I do not have problem with Credit Sussie report but I was showing you one example of a neutral international organization commenting on the data quality for Pakistan. Problem is not Credit Susie, problem is Pakistan's government which cannot even count their populace or determine their demographics.

As I said before, being born idiot is an accident but those like you who want to stay idiot is a choice. No matter how many surveys you do unless you have quality basic data you will end up with unreliable results.



Even an error of 0.5 % will lead to a difference of 10 million over a period of 19 years. Growth rate is secondary parameter calculated from the real measurement of population. In country like Pakistan where population growth is not just the natural one but also due to legal/illegal immigration from Afghnistan also happens AND the registration system like NADRA is fairly new it becomes paramount that you validate it before you rely on its data. It was started in 2000 and hasn't been validated by any subsequent census.

Rest all of the measure of population AND demographics / household data unless done directly cannot be validated.



I do not know how registration is done in Pakistan, usually in these type of registration(s) they set up camp where people go and register. In census they go to individual houses and ASK how many members are there etc. There is a subtle but real difference in intent.

Also you are having a new means of counting, before you use it, you will like to validate it against an older but working means, that is census.

I understand what you are saying. I am cocluding with remarks that

The population estimate of 200 milion is based on compilation of various databases such as The Household Integrated Economic Survyey in 2012, that was cosidered as mini census before the census in 2013 which was later postponed, the records of Nadra, hospitals and Government agencies and International Institutes have thee way of calculating nearest population possible which for example in 2016 is 200 million.

It is obviously not correct data and the census will confirm exact number of people but the total population will likely to be very near to 200 million

http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/household-integrated-economic-survey-hies-2011-12

 

[EndangeredSpecies]

I understand what you are saying. I am cocluding with remarks that

The population estimate of 200 milion is based on compilatio of various databases such as The Household Integrated Economic Survyey in 2012, that was cosidered as mini census before the census in 2013 which was later postponed, the records of Nadra, hospitals and Government agencies and International Institutes have thee way of calculating nearest population possible which for example in 2016 is 200 million.

It is obviously not correct data and the census will confirm exact number of people but the total population will likely to be very near to 200 million

You will also need the house hold earning or assets data which census folks usually ask. Since it is a direct measurement, it is the best source of data you have. Once you have that all, then we can put the argument of poverty reduction to rest.

 

[Hyde]

You will also need the house hold earning or assets data which census folks usually ask. Since it is a direct measurement, it is the best source of data you have. Once you have that all, then we can put the argument of poverty reduction to rest.

That was done in household economic survey. Please browse the link I have mentioned above and open the details report

Thank you / bye for now

 

[LA se Karachi]

Did you ever read their reports and their source of data? They often mention it as a sample for survey or more often they depend on the data collected by the government. If government is not doing it even their reports will have wrong data and that is why they also mention in foot notes about data quality, which for Pakistan is usually poor. Doing argument by authority shows that you do not know what you are talking about.

Wow, every single report from international agencies mentions that Pakistan has population data so poor that there may be "several tens of millions" more people living in the country than they estimate?! Do you know how dumb you sound by saying that?

Saying that Pakistan actually has "several tens of millions" more people than international agencies estimate without providing any concrete evidence (and it would have to be a lot evidence) shows that you don't have anything to prove. But I'm sure that they are all very wrong in their estimates, and that you alone are right.

I do not have problem with Credit Sussie report but I was showing you one example of a neutral international organization commenting on the data quality for Pakistan. Problem is not Credit Susie, problem is Pakistan's government which cannot even count their populace or determine their demographics.

Yup, and therefore, all logical people must assume Pakistan really has 250-300 million living in it.

As I said before, being born idiot is an accident but those like you who want to stay idiot is a choice. No matter how many surveys you do unless you have quality basic data you will end up with unreliable results.

Yes, I, the UN, the World Bank, the CIA Factbook, and all other international agencies are all "idiots" who are being duped by population data so poor that in fact there are 250-300 million people living in Pakistan. And then you accuse other people of wanting to stay "idiots".

I'm done with you and your laughable assertion. Tell yourself whatever makes you feel better. Keep obsessing over Pakistan, some of your lives seem to revolve around it....