Can Asians Think? This is obviously a sensitive question. In this age of political correctness that we live in, just imagine the uproar that could be caused if I went to Europe or Africa and posed the question "Can Europeans think?" or "Can Africans think?" You have to be Asian to ask the question "Can Asians think?"
Given its sensitivity, let me explain both my reasons for posing the question and the context in which I do so. First, if you had to ask one single, key question that could determine the future of the globe, it might well be Can Asians think? In 1996 Asians already made up about 70 percent of the world population (3.5 billion out of a global population of more than 5 billion). By conservative projections, the Asian population will increase to 5.7 billion in 2050 out of a global population of 9.87 billion, while the populations of North America and Europe will remain relatively constant at 374 million and 721 million, respectively. This means that North America and Europe's share of the world population will drop from 20 percent to about 11 percent. Clearly, in the past few centuries Europe and, more recently, North America have carried the larger share of the global burden in advancing human civilization. By 2050, when Europeans and North Americans make up one-tenth instead of one-fifth of the world's population, would it be fair for the remaining 90 percent of mankind to expect this 10 percent to continue to bear this burden? Realistically, can the rest of the world continue to rest on the shoulders of the West? If the Asian population doubles in the next fifty years, will Asians by able to carry their fair share of this burden?
Second, in asking this question I am not suggesting that individual Asians cannot think. Clearly Asians can master alphabets, add two plus two to make four, and play chess. However, throughout history there have been examples of societies that have produced brilliant individuals, yet collectively experienced a lot of grief and dislocation. The classic exammple of this is the Jewish soceity, which has contributed more brillian minds, in proportion to its numbers -- from Einstein to Wittgenstein, from Disraeli to Kissinger -- than any other society. Yet, as a society they have suffered greatly, especially in the past century of so. Let me stress that I am not speaking about the travails of Israel in modern times. I am speaking of the period from A.D. 135, when the Jews were forced to leave Palestine, to 1948, when Israel was born. Will a similar fate befall Asian societies, or will they be able to think well and ensure a better future for themselves?
Third, the time scale in which I am posing this question is not days, weeks, months, years, or even decades. I am looking at the question on the time scale of centuries (this is especially appropriate since as I write we stand two years, away from the new millenium). Arguably, the future course of world history in the next few centuries, as I will explain later, will depend on how Asian societies think and perform.
In a multiple-choice examination format, there would be three possible answers the question Can Asians think?: Yes, No, or Maybe. Before we decide which choice to tick, let me make a case for each answer.
No, They Cannot Think
I will start my discussion with the reasons for the No answer, if only to refute any critics who may suggest that the question itself manifestly absurd. If one looks at the record of the past thousand years, one can make a very persuasive case that Asians, Asian societies that is, cannot think.
