IMF's projection is overly optimistic for Pakistan's economy

[Norwegian]

IMF's latest assessment report on Pakistan's economy projects a sustainable gdp growth path in the first half of 2020s compared to the dark era of PPP-PMLN in the 2010s

Share your thoughts here whether you agree or disagree with IMF's latest assessment...
@Wood @Patriot forever @farok84 @Jungibaaz @blueazure @TNT @Trango Towers @Dual Wielder @Jazzbot @Zibago @Mav3rick @blain2 @beijingwalker @The Accountant @HRK @Beast

 

[FuturePAF]

Pakistan is so highly inefficient, that it could attract FDI if it puts in place the right incentives for growth and disincentives to prevent money going into less productive (or export revenue earning) ventures. Especially if investors see Pakistan has secured agreements for (high margin) export of agricultural products if it increases yield. As part of this formula, Pakistan should create a program to train farmers on the best modern agricultural techniques so investors will see a skilled labor force to maximize yields. Pakistan should also identify and create peat fields to attract investors that want to increased Pakistan’s agricultural sector as well as another export product.

Modernizing agriculture with new seed varieties, modern irrigation (which brings nutrients and water to the roots and uses the right mycorrhizal fungi to enhance absorption), and more land under irrigation once the dams come on line throughout this decade have the potential to at least double yields, just this decade. (Fully catching up with world standard could yield a 3-5 fold increase in agricultural output)

It comes down to management and political dynamics shaping markets and the weather.

Population is also growing; by the end of the decade the population could easily be 40+ million people (to reach between 260-270 million people) or nearly 20% increase in the population (of the prediction of reaching 363 million people by 2050 holds true). So consumption led growth could see a rise in GDP.
Source on population numbers:

International Studies

This core text is the first to provide a much-needed interdisciplinary approach to international studies. Emphasizing the interconnected nature of history, geography, anthropology, economics, and political science, International Studies details the methodologies and subject matter of each...

books.google.com

Another factor is the weather patterns over the next decade. Currently we are in a La Niña weather pattern causing less snow pack in the mountains and drought in Afghanistan. Should the pattern change to El Niño, if managed properly, we can channel as much of the expected flooding to refill ground water acquifers in Pakistan and the region, and a bumper crop could yield cheaper raw materials for the textile production or cheaper food for consumers. The last big floods in Pakistan in 2010 were in a year that started as an El Niño year. A global effort to end the famine in Afghanistan (through rebuilding their irrigation and water storage system) could be made easier if we get an El Niño year soon, and if people are retrained to become farmers again. Afghan cotton could feed the textile industry, lowering raw material costs.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

 

[RealNapster]

Population is also growing; by the end of the decade the population could easily be 40+ million people (to reach between 260-270 million people) or nearly 20% increase in the population (of the prediction of reaching 363 million people by 2050 holds true). So consumption led growth could see a rise in GDP.

Estimates are that by 2030 we will have 300 million population.

 

[FuturePAF]

Estimates are that by 2030 we will have 300 million population.

Perhaps, but 300 million in only 8 more years at a fertility rate of 3.4 would mean we are seriously undercounting our current population.

 

[RealNapster]

Perhaps, but 300 million in only 8 more years at a fertility rate of 3.4 would mean we are seriously undercounting our current population.

We are experiencing growth rate of 2% annually. Btw this growth rate is decreasing with each passing day. A year before it was 2.02%. before that 2.04%. so let's see how much we are at the end of 2030

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

We are experiencing growth rate of 2% annually. Btw this growth rate is decreasing with each passing day. A year before it was 2.02%. before that 2.04%. so let's see how much we are at the end of 2030

I used to worry about population bomb propaganda. Not anymore because its bollocks and BS thing to worry about. Pakistan have enough agricultural land and much more yet to be irrigated that it can easily double, triple wheat, rice etc production in few decades.

 

[Maula Jatt]

I used to worry about population bomb propaganda. Not anymore because its bollocks and BS thing to worry about. Pakistan have enough agricultural land and much more yet to be irrigated that it can easily double, triple wheat, rice etc production in few decades.

It's not about food mate, infact more food means more population
We know we have enough food to probably even feed billion people (probably exaduration but you get my drift)

It's issues outside of food that are concerning

 

[blueazure]

Estimates are that by 2030 we will have 300 million population.

population growth rate has slowed down considerably in pakistan

300 million by 2040 seems more like it

Perhaps, but 300 million in only 8 more years at a fertility rate of 3.4 would mean we are seriously undercounting our current population.

i belive Pakistani fertility rate is around 2.5 to 3

people arent having enough babies as compares to 20 - 30 years back

-----------

1 . my father has seven siblings( he's 65)

2. my mother has six ( she 60)

most families of the above generation( boomers of pakistan) have 6- 7 siblings average


but come to my generation,

1. i have 3 siblings
2. most of my friends have 3 -4 siblings max



now talking of my kids

1. i have 2 kids

2. most of my friends have 2 ( 3 is max and is rare )



----------------

i love these population discussion , would be glad if someone can share his observation

 

[hydrabadi_arab]

It's not about food mate, infact more food means more population
We know we have enough food to probably even feed billion people (probably exaduration but you get my drift)

It's issues outside of food that are concerning

Its not a big deal. Pakistan population too will decline but more slower then others. Growth have slowed down since 1981 census. What we need is increased productivity in agriculture, manufacturing etc Create jobs for all these people. And send rest of them to overseas.

 

[Pakistansdefender]

Pakistan is so highly inefficient, that it could attract FDI if it puts in place the right incentives for growth and disincentives to prevent money going into less productive (or export revenue earning) ventures.

Modernizing agriculture with new seed varieties, modern irrigation (which brings nutrients and water to the roots), and more land under irrigation once the dams come on line throughout this decade have the potential to at least double yields, just this decade. (Fully catching up with world standard could yield a 3-5 fold increase in agricultural output)

It comes down to management and political dynamics shaping markets and the weather.

Population is also growing; by the end of the decade the population could easily be 40+ million people (to reach between 260-270 million people) or nearly 20% increase in the population (of the prediction of reaching 363 million people by 2050 holds true). So consumption led growth could see a rise in GDP.

Another factor is the weather patterns over the next decade. Currently we are in a La Niña weather pattern causing less snow pack in the mountains and drought in Afghanistan. Should the pattern change to El Niño, if managed properly, we can channel as much of the expected flooding to refill ground water acquifers in Pakistan and the region, and a bumper crop could yield cheaper raw materials for the textile production or cheaper food for consumers. The last big floods in Pakistan in 2010 were in a year that started as an El Niño year. A global effort to end the famine in Afghanistan (through rebuilding their irrigation and water storage system) could be made easier if we get an El Niño year soon, and if people are retrained to become farmers again. Afghan cotton could feed the textile industry, lowering raw material costs.

Fdi is coming but real fdi dont come because of instability. There is a security issue. Unless you sort that out that there are zero attacks all over country. Country is at peace. Then investments would come in line.
Still we have image problem which india and Bangladesh dont have.yes there is indian factor too that continuously spread fake news and rumors and actively work to stop investment.

 

[RealNapster]

I used to worry about population bomb propaganda. Not anymore because its bollocks and BS thing to worry about. Pakistan have enough agricultural land and much more yet to be irrigated that it can easily double, triple wheat, rice etc production in few decades.

1. Our agricultural land is decreasing each year due to new housing societies and unplanned urban sprawl. Whatever little increase in crop production (3-5%) you see each year is due to all the other assures we take but that's it. You can use modern agricultural techniques only if you got agricultural land.

2. Water in our rivers is reducing. Cycles of rains are hugely irregular due to global warming and all. Flow in rivers is very low. And provinces are already fighting over water share (Sindh for example).

population growth rate has slowed down considerably in pakistan

300 million by 2040 seems more like

I am quoting the latest WB predictions.

 

[313ghazi]

I used to worry about population bomb propaganda. Not anymore because its bollocks and BS thing to worry about. Pakistan have enough agricultural land and much more yet to be irrigated that it can easily double, triple wheat, rice etc production in few decades.

We can, but will we? That is the problem.

 

[RealNapster]

i belive Pakistani fertility rate is around 2.5 to 3

people arent having enough babies as compares to 20 - 30 years back

-----------

1 . my father has seven siblings( he's 65)

2. my mother has six ( she 60)

most families of the above generation( boomers of pakistan) have 6- 7 siblings average


but come to my generation,

1. i have 3 siblings
2. most of my friends have 3 -4 siblings max



now talking of my kids

1. i have 2 kids

2. most of my friends have 2 ( 3 is max and is rare )



----------------

i love these population discussion , would be glad if someone can share his observation

100 million base population with yearly growth rate of 3.5% , or

220 million base population with yearly growth rate of 2% ?

Pick one. But remember this. 100 million base population required no special technological developments or new cities. You were easily managing that population with agricultural sector and other services industries. Managing the extra 120 million require Investments in new industries, new cities, new processes, new population managing systems etc. Increase from 220 and things further get difficult to manage. This reminds me of an example our teacher used to give. If it take 100 hours study to manage 90% marks in exam. It require 100 hours more to increase the 90% to 100%. Initially you worked 100 hours and acquired 90% for the remaining 10% you had to work 100 hours.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@RealNapster

Nap Pai,

If it take 100 hours study to manage 90% marks in exam. It require 100 hours more to increase the 90% to 100%. Initially you worked 100 hours and acquired 90% for the remaining 10% you had to work 100 hours.

In short, Law of Diminishing Marginal Returns.

Regards