IMF Prediction GDP per capita of European countries 2016 vs GDP per capita 1938

[flamer84]

Thanks communism....

 

[liall]

It looks like Ukraine is the only European country we can catch upto in near future

 

[flamer84]

It looks like Ukraine is the only European country we can catch upto in near future

Moldova isn't a bright spot either.

Ukraine was somewhere at 4.5k per capita until the war.

 

[The Silent One]

Moldova isn't a bright spot either.

Ukraine was somewhere at 4.5k per capita until the war.

That's impossible, Wars don't reduce GDP.

Syria went from $2,807 (2010) per capita to $3,790 (2014).
(source is Wikipedia)

This is because GDP depends on spending. Every time you spend $1 , it increases the GDP by $1.

 

[Audio]

That's impossible, Wars don't reduce GDP.

Syria went from $2,807 (2010) per capita to $3,790 (2014).
(source is Wikipedia)

This is because GDP depends on spending. Every time you spend $1 , it increases the GDP by $1.

The stupidity of this post, or should i rather say, the omission of facts, working for what purpose here? For spreading the mantra war is good for economy?

While gdp will indeed go up, the reduction of total sovereign wealth and means of generating that wealth by destruction through warfare more than exceeds any small percent variations in gdp calculation.

An example following your logic would be: everytime you spend 1$ you raise gdp by 1$ but loose buildings worth 30$ through enemy shelling. Sounds like a legit business model to me.

 

[flamer84]

That's impossible, Wars don't reduce GDP.

Syria went from $2,807 (2010) per capita to $3,790 (2014).
(source is Wikipedia)

This is because GDP depends on spending. Every time you spend $1 , it increases the GDP by $1.

What ? Ukrainian industry grinded to a halt,exports went up in smoke,the grivna skyrocketed to the dollar.

Are you under the impression that no exports,factories being blown to pieces,infrastructure destroyed,capital leaving the country is good for the economy ? Anyway,a quarter of Syrians left the country,hence the rise in per capita.But it's all theoretical as that's a country in shambles,even most of its oil industry is in the hands of rebels.

Check the previous stats for Ukr and you'll see i'm right.

 

[liall]

Moldova isn't a bright spot either.

Ukraine was somewhere at 4.5k per capita until the war.

Oh damn. Moldova is the poorest European country by those stats. India will be a 5 trillion economy by 2025 so that's like 3500$ per capita income. Not much I say but it will be a bit respectable.

 

[flamer84]

Oh damn. Moldova is the poorest European country by those stats. India will be a 5 trillion economy by 2025 so that's like 3500$ per capita income. Not much I say but it will be a bit respectable.

Yeah,they're like African poor but some of them are out there screaming that Romania wants to annex them to steal their country and wealth .

 

[The Silent One]

The stupidity of this post, or should i rather say, the omission of facts, working for what purpose here? For spreading the mantra war is good for economy?

While gdp will indeed go up, the reduction of total sovereign wealth and means of generating that wealth by destruction through warfare more than exceeds any small percent variations in gdp calculation.

An example following your logic would be: everytime you spend 1$ you raise gdp by 1$ but loose buildings worth 30$ through enemy shelling. Sounds like a legit business model to me.

..... GDP (the Economy) is often measured through Expenditure.

GDP formula: Private Consumption + Government + Investment + (Exports - Imports)

People will always consume (Food, Shelter, Clothing) and Government will always spend (e.g. Military).

Is War good? No. But the GDP won't show you any damages.

You're focusing on wealth. I'm focusing on the GDP. I wasn't attacking Flamer84 or saying Ukraine was wealthy.
I was explaining that a War usually won't reduce GDP. As he said Ukraine's GDP has been reduced.

But thanks for your contribution

What ? Ukrainian industry grinded to a halt,exports went up in smoke,the grivna skyrocketed to the dollar.

Are you under the impression that no exports,factories being blown to pieces,infrastructure destroyed,capital leaving the country is good for the economy ? Anyway,a quarter of Syrians left the country,hence the rise in per capita.But it's all theoretical as that's a country in shambles,even most of its oil industry is in the hands of rebels.

Check the previous stats for Ukr and you'll see i'm right.

I did, you were right. It went from $2,983 (2010) to $2,109 (2015)

 

[Audio]

..... GDP (the Economy) is often measured through Expenditure.

GDP formula: Private Consumption + Government + Investment + (Exports - Imports)

People will always consume (Food, Shelter, Clothing) and Government will always spend (e.g. Military).

Is War good? No. But the GDP won't show you any damages.

You're focusing on wealth. I'm focusing on the GDP. I wasn't attacking Flamer84 or saying Ukraine was wealthy.
I was explaining that a War usually won't reduce GDP. As he said Ukraine's GDP has been reduced.

But thanks for your contribution

This would be all too funny, if it weren't so sad. Most likely the gifts of elementary school system on which everyone has given up.
GDP is an "inferior" term to "sovereign wealth". GDP each year adds X to sovereign wealth.

I sincerely do not know how Syrian stats improved so markedly in the course of the war, with 50% unemployment, millions displaced, lots of means of generating income destroyed.
There has to be some anomaly here, Syrian government was not rich before war and they certainly aren't rich now, whatever expenditure they do, most likely comes from Iran/Russia.
Most likely the anomaly comes from the fact Russia sent complex weapon systems on credit to Syria, making Syria spend "money" on paper which was then counted towards GDP, but not included into official "imports" because these transfers were not admitted to at the time. Plus the drain of population, artificially inflating (unverified) stats on gdp growth, plus below mentioned aid in the billions.

Iran Spends Billions to Prop Up Assad - Bloomberg View

On top of all that, let us not forget that most gdp increases during times of war is merely taking on debt to produce things that explode into the aether when used. So, whatever gdp increases in wartime are hardly conducive to any meaningful improvement of life for the population.

 

[The Silent One]

This would be all too funny, if it weren't so sad. Most likely the gifts of elementary school system on which everyone has given up.
GDP is an "inferior" term to "sovereign wealth". GDP each year adds X to sovereign wealth.

I sincerely do not know how Syrian stats improved so markedly in the course of the war, with 50% unemployment, millions displaced, lots of means of generating income destroyed.
There has to be some anomaly here, Syrian government was not rich before war and they certainly aren't rich now, whatever expenditure they do, most likely comes from Iran/Russia.
Most likely the anomaly comes from the fact Russia sent complex weapon systems on credit to Syria, making Syria spend "money" on paper which was then counted towards GDP, but not included into official "imports" because these transfers were not admitted to at the time. Plus the drain of population, artificially inflating (unverified) stats on gdp growth, plus below mentioned aid in the billions.

Iran Spends Billions to Prop Up Assad - Bloomberg View

No. It's a gift of my University Economic courses. But thank you or the complement

According to the CIA World factbook, in 2014 only 21% of the Syrian GDP derives from Government spending. 65% comes from Private consumption.

The World Factbook

Private consumption has increased due to the increased spending of the Syrian government in that regard. The government is funding militiamen, ensuring that Government centers (Latakia in the Mediterranean for example) are well-stocked and well-supplied to ensure their loyalty.

The war has been isolated to certain cities and regions within the nation (e.g. Homs, Aleppo). Many parts have been untouched , for example Latakia which i mentioned before.

 

[liall]

Yeah,they're like African poor but some of them are out there screaming that Romania wants to annex them to steal their country and wealth .

What kind of economies are Romania and Moldova? Is it like India's which is under transition trying to become industrialized?

 

[Audio]

No. It's a gift of my University Economic courses. But thank you or the complement

According to the CIA World factbook, in 2014 only 21% of the Syrian GDP derives from Government spending. 65% comes from Private consumption.

The World Factbook

Private consumption has increased due to the increased spending of the Syrian government in that regard. The government is funding militiamen, ensuring that Government centers (Latakia in the Mediterranean for example) are well-stocked and well-supplied to ensure their loyalty.

The war has been isolated to certain cities and regions within the nation (e.g. Homs, Aleppo). Many parts have been untouched , for example Latakia which i mentioned before.

Syria from Factbook:

Syria's economy continues to deteriorate amid the ongoing conflict that began in 2011. The economy further contracted in 2014 because of international sanctions, widespread infrastructure damage, diminished domestic consumption and production, reduced subsidies, and high inflation. The government has struggled to address the effects of economic decline, which include dwindling foreign exchange reserves, rising budget and trade deficits, and the decreasing value of the Syrian pound and household purchasing power. During 2014, the ongoing conflict and continued unrest and economic decline worsened the humanitarian crisis and elicited a greater need for international assistance, as the number of people in need inside Syria increased from 9.3 million to 12.2 million, and the number of Syrian refugees increased from 2.2 million to more than 3.3 million. Prior to the turmoil, Damascus began liberalizing economic policies, including cutting lending interest rates, opening private banks, consolidating multiple exchange rates, raising prices on some subsidized items, and establishing the Damascus Stock Exchange, but the economy remains highly regulated. Long-run economic constraints include foreign trade barriers, declining oil production, high unemployment, rising budget deficits, increasing pressure on water supplies caused by heavy use in agriculture, rapid population growth, industrial expansion, water pollution, and widespread infrastructure damage.

The World Factbook

Reconcile your statements of private consumption with 50% of the country in some "need" or another and over 10% refugees.

Furthermore, if you would have scrolled down the page you would see data directly at odds with your statements of increased gdp/capita

$5,100 (2011 est.)
$5,100 (2010 est.)
$5,200 (2010 est.)

If you would perhaps have been more experienced in data mining you could have come to the inevitable and quite logical conclusion that data in there isn't worth that much as meaningful data collection has been stopped for the past 4 years and whatever there is there are mere estimates, which like outlined above are difficult to reconcile with objective things that are happening in the country.

Additionaly, once you go a little deeper in into "infrastructure of the report" you find such admissions:

PPP estimates for developing countries are often rough approximations. In developing countries with weak currencies, the exchange rate estimate of GDP in dollars is typically one-fourth to one-half the PPP estimate. Most of the GDP estimates for developing countries are based on extrapolation of PPP numbers published by the UN International Comparison Program (UNICP) and by Professors Robert Summers and Alan Heston of the University of Pennsylvania and their colleagues.

The World Factbook

So, rough approximations from academia in their ivory towers done at a time of war when noone relevant in making of those assumptions even visited.

 

[Kambojaric]

Interesting how Ireland has eclipsed the UK.

 

[Schutz]

Interesting how Ireland has eclipsed the UK.

Less than 5 million people, a decent tourist land and a fair amount of companies with call centres/tech in Dublin these days, plenty of money to go around a small population.