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IMF plan to resume soon, says Hafeez

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• Staff mission will arrive in a few weeks, according to PM’s aide
• Faraz says no shortage of wheat, prices on the decline

ISLAMABAD: Claiming “positive news on economic front from all sides”, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh said on Tuesday a staff mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would be arriving here in a few weeks for a shared understanding on tax reforms, higher collections and improvements in power sector.

Speaking at a news conference with Information Minister Shibli Faraz soon after a meeting of the federal cabinet, he said the IMF mission would come in a few weeks to give a formal structure to ongoing discussions with it and then the programme would be fully on track.

Dr Shaikh said Pakistan had very good relations with the IMF for the basic reason that all matters were progressing strictly the way these were committed, including better tax collection, strong reduction in government expenditures and paying off debts in a better way.

As a result, he said, the government availed certain relaxations that were not part of the original agreement in order to give incentives to the construction sector and tax discounts to businesses to avoid contraction in economy.

The IMF was fully cooperating with Pakistan on all these matters and was quick to provide an additional $1.4 billion to fight impact of Covid-19. He said the two sides had a basic understanding on all matters that now required shared understanding on two counts over the remaining period.

The two issues are how to move forward on improving the tax system and increasing collections. This is in the interest of all, otherwise the government would not be able to come up to the expectations of people.

The two sides also have to agree on how to improve the electricity system. He said a lot of hard work was being put in to bring about improvements in this area and the prime minister was himself showing leadership in this respect.

The past contracts were being adjusted and energy-fuel mix was being improved to shift towards solar, wind and hydropower resources.

The finance adviser said the economy was picking up as evident from both the external and internal indicators. “Good news is pouring in from all four sides and we need to protect it from coronavirus and build on it,” he said.

Mr Faraz said that “all basic economic indicators have moved in the right direction over the past one month and there is a feel-good factor in the market as evident from the stock market, foreign direct investment and large-scale manufacturing (LSM) data”.

He said there was no shortage of wheat anywhere in the country and its prices were now on a decline. He said wheat stocks now stood at 4.2 million tonnes and were being ramped up with 1.9m tonnes of wheat currently on the way, putting total availability at about 6.1m tonnes.

Mr Faraz said the next season would start with a surplus wheat stock in April when new produce would start coming in.

Dr Shaikh said that in four months of the current year, LSM had witnessed around 5 per cent growth after a long time, with strong support from cement, automobiles and fertilisers. He said exports were increasing as the textile sector had received good export orders. Also, the currency had stabilised and its value was improving while foreign exchange reserves increased to $13bn.

On the fiscal side, he said the FBR had collected Rs1,340bn in four months, up 4pc despite Covid-19 impact and in fact higher than the target for the period. In addition, the FBR cleared Rs128bn refunds in four months on top of Rs250bn refunds last year.

He said the government had reduced its expenditures and there was no borrowing from the State Bank of Pakistan. No supplementary grant outside the budget had been issued.

Dr Shaikh repeated his stance that the government inherited a huge $20bn current account deficit which was successfully brought down to $3bn last year and had turned surplus of $792m this year.

The adviser said that unlike the past the government’s income was more than its expenditures due to which it was not borrowing from the central bank and had in fact repaid Rs5 trillion of past loans and interest since it came to power. He said the government had achieved primary balance and as a result government’s debt stood unchanged at Rs36.4tr between July 1 and October 31 this year.

He, however, agreed that because of debt servicing of the past debts the country had to continue with a budget deficit. This was a clear proof that the government had maintained fiscal discipline.

He said the basic objective of the government efforts was to increase economic activity, create jobs and provide maximum relief to the people.

Dr Shaikh said the profitability of top 100 companies had gone up by 36pc, stock market was proving to be one of the world’s most attractive place for world investors.

He agreed that inflation remained a major challenge for the government which was trying to control the prices of commodities, especially wheat and sugar.

He said the government had to import wheat to meet shortage in the country but now the stock situation was completely under control as there was no shortage of any grain at this time.

He said the government had decided to increase the beneficiaries of ‘Ehsaas’ programme from the current 4.5m to 7m to whom the government would pay cash on permanent basis.
 
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If things are in right direction without them then why need them.

IMF doesn't just provide loan only. Its the name, IMF, that investors look for. If IMF is helping Pakistan, its sends a message to investors that things are being worked on and is being overseen by IMF. That branding or trust in the IMF names, is what drives investors to invest in Pakistan. If IMF says things are good for investing, FDI will come. IMF is there to support us in fixing our short comings in our Economy.
 
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IMF doesn't just provide loan only. Its the name, IMF, that investors look for. If IMF is helping Pakistan, its sends a message to investors that things are being worked on and is being overseen by IMF. That branding or trust in the IMF names, is what drives investors to invest in Pakistan. If IMF says things are good for investing, FDI will come. IMF is there to support us in fixing our short comings in our Economy.
Yes you are right but seems now Pakistan economy is in good shape and no where near to default. Seems Pakistan economy already revived trust which in last few months we can see staying away from IMF.
 
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Yes you are right but seems now Pakistan economy is in good shape and no where near to default. Seems Pakistan economy already revived trust which in last few months we can see staying away from IMF.

We never got the full IMF bailout, I think less then 2 billion has been given to us so far. Yes we are far from defaulting, but still not out of the woods yet. There are still reforms that need to be implemented, and those still require money, which we don't have. For that we need the remainder of bailout package.
 
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If things are in right direction without them then why need them.
Because we are herione drug addicts
We had similar good behavior even in 2015 but after 2016 we had relapse in drug use(fake note printing)

We have relapsed 9 times in past 20yrs but usually the drug is provided by either sharif or bhutto

So if we leave IMF prematurely there will be signal that we want to go and do drugs(state bank lending also known as fake note printing)

So consider pakistan as a herione addict whose in rehab hospital
We never got the full IMF bailout, I think less then 2 billion has been given to us so far. Yes we are far from defaulting, but still not out of the woods yet. There are still reforms that need to be implemented, and those still require money, which we don't have. For that we need the remainder of bailout package.
We dont need IMF money to be honest

Infact we didnt receive additional money it was more like a roll over of old money
 
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IMF doesn't just provide loan only. Its the name, IMF, that investors look for. If IMF is helping Pakistan, its sends a message to investors that things are being worked on and is being overseen by IMF. That branding or trust in the IMF names, is what drives investors to invest in Pakistan. If IMF says things are good for investing, FDI will come. IMF is there to support us in fixing our short comings in our Economy.
ALso IMF have their own brand who they want to make money and if you go or chose other way they put sanctions on your wonder why CPEC is going on slow pace😏😏😏
 
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If things are in right direction without them then why need them.

Because we don't have sufficient availability of financing without IMF to roll over our maturing debt as well as to acquire new ones for interest payment.
It is very important that we take low interest loans from major lenders to roll over, instead of from commercial sources. We don't have that access without IMF umbrella.
ALso IMF have their own brand who they want to make money and if you go or chose other way they put sanctions on your wonder why CPEC is going on slow pace😏😏😏

CPEC is not slowing down, there was a bit of delay when IK came into power as we cancelled 3 major imported fuel based power projects. It is now well on tract, with major structural changes especially in power division. The western alignment is focused on more now, instead of just vanity projects.
Actually IMF provides loans at much better rates than from any where else to roll over our debt. Even Saudi deposits rate was higher as compared to IMF. Moreover to get the basic concept IMF does not need you, we needed IMF due to severe liquidity crisis in our reserves as well as current account being the major factors.
IMF 6billion means nothing, but it the confidence in IMF of major lenders that comes with it, so that our payments of debt and interest which has gone past 10billion since FY 2018 are rotated and financed smoothly.
 
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