IMF lowers India's growth forecast for 2012

[Windjammer]

International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered India's growth forecast by 0.7 per cent to 6.1 per cent for 2012 - the steepest cut for any nation - in view of deteriorating global economic situation.

The IMF, in its update of the World Economic Outlook, has also cut India's growth projection for 2013 by a similar margin to 6.5 per cent.

"In the past three months, the global recovery, which was not strong to start with, has shown signs of further weakness," it said while updating its April Economic Outlook.

The IMF has reduced the global growth forecast for 2012 to 3.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent. For 2013, the growth forecast has been lowered to 3.9 per cent, from 4.1 per cent, indicating that there are harder times ahead for economies.

"Downside risks to this weaker global outlook continue to loom large," it said, adding that the most immediate risk is "still that delayed or insufficient policy action will further escalate the euro area crisis."

As far as the emerging and developing economies are concerned, the growth projection for 2012 has been estimated at 5.6 per cent, 0.1 per cent below the earlier forecast made three months ago.

"Growth momentum has also slowed in various emerging market economies, notably Brazil, China, and India. This partly reflects a weaker external environment, but domestic demand has also decelerated sharply in response to capacity constraints and policy tightening over the past year," IMF said.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) had last week lowered the growth forecast for India to 6.5 per cent for the current fiscal, from the earlier 7 per cent. According to official projections, Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.6 per cent (+/- 0.25 per cent) in the current fiscal (April-March).

IMF lowers India's growth forecast to 6.1 pc for 2012 | Deccan Chronicle

 

[manofwar]

I am happy as long as the people's incomes continue to grow...............
I don't give a rat's a$$ about growth if it people's income increases and poverty reduces.....

 

[karan.1970]

A more detailed view of IMF review

IMF cuts global growth forecast - The Irish Times - Mon, Jul 16, 2012

The International Monetary Fund today cut its forecast for global economic growth and warned that the outlook could dim further if policymakers in Europe do not act with enough force and speed to quell their region's debt crisis.

In a mid-year health check of the world economy, the IMF said emerging market nations, long a global bright spot, were now being dragged down by Europe. It said a drop in exports in these countries would combine with earlier policies meant to prevent overheating and slow growth more sharply than hoped.

The IMF shaved its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.9 per cent from the 4.1 per cent it projected in April, trimming projections for most advanced and emerging economies. It left its 2012 forecast unchanged at 3.5 per cent.

"Downside risks to this weaker global outlook continue to loom large," the IMF said.

"The most immediate risk is still that delayed or insufficient policy action will further escalate the euro area crisis." The global lender said advanced economies would only grow 1.4 percent this year and 1.9 per cent in 2013.

It also trimmed its forecast for emerging economies, projecting they will expand 5.9 per cent in 2013 and 5.6 per cent in 2012.

Both figures are 0.1 of a percentage point lower than in April.

The IMF cut its 2013 growth forecast for the crisis-hit euro zone to 0.7 percent, while maintaining its projection of a 0.3 per cent contraction this year. It said it now believes Spain's economy will shrink both this year and next.

The IMF sharply revised down its growth projections for the United Kingdom to 0.2 per cent this year and to 1.4 per cent in 2013. In April, the fund said the UK economy would expand 0.8 percent in 2012 and 2.0 per cent next year.

Central banks in China, the euro zone and Britain have all eased monetary policy in recent weeks to support growth. The US Federal Reserve has said it is poised to do more if needed.

The IMF said the European Central Bank had room to ease policy further and said officials in emerging economies should be prepared to cope with declines in trade and increased volatility in capital flows.

The fund praised crisis-fighting measures adopted by European leaders at a summit in June as "steps in the right direction" but called for more fiscal and banking integration.

It urged the creation of a pan-European deposit insurance guarantee program and a mechanism to resolve failing banks, and call on the ECB to provide ample liquidity to support banks under "sufficiently lenient conditions." It made clear, however, that Europe was not the only risk.

The IMF, which trimmed its US forecasts slightly, said concerns were rising over a political battle brewing in Washington over how to avoid painful automatic spending cuts and tax increases at the start of next year.

The United States faces a "fiscal cliff" with the scheduled expiration of Bush-era tax cuts and $1.2 trillion in automatic spending reductions - enough budget tightening to knock the still-weak US economy back into recession.

Washington is also expected to run into the statutory $16.4 trillion cap on its debt before the end of the year, raising the prospect of a default absent congressional action to raise it.

While financial markets believe Congress and the White House will find a way to avoid a fiscal train wreck, the IMF warned of the "potential for a significant adverse market reaction" if that consensus view began to falter.

The IMF said it does not expect the current drag on emerging economies to worsen given that many had now shifted to support growth. "It is really case by case but in general we think (emerging economies) will be able to increase demand and grow at fairly high rates," IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference.

Earlier this year, policymakers in emerging economies were worried about large-scale capital inflows and excessive appreciation of their currencies. Those fears have given way to concerns over rapid depreciation and increased volatility in exchange rates. Currencies like the Brazilian real and Indian rupee have depreciated by between 15 and 25 per cent in less than a quarter, the IMF noted.

The IMF cut its 2012 growth forecast for China to 8.0 percent from 8.2 per cent, and said it now expected growth of 8.5 per cent next year, down from 8.8 per cent.

It revised its growth projections for India to 6.1 per cent this year from 6.9 per cent, and chopped its 2013 forecast to 6.5 per cent from 7.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, Africa's growth is still seen at a robust 5.4 per cent this year and 5.3 per cent in 2013, as the region remains relatively insulated from external financial shocks.

The IMF said growth in the Middle East will be stronger this year as key oil producing countries boost production and Libya's economy rebounds from conflict in 2011, but it held its forecast for next year at 3.7 per cent.

 

[Windjammer]

92 percent Indians blame government for economic problems:

New York: A whopping majority of Indians blamed the government for the country's current economic woes, with nearly half pessimistic over chances of a revival over the next one year, a new survey has said.

A whopping 92 percent of Indians blamed the government for their economic problems, while 17 percent put the blame on banks and financial institutions, according to the Pew Research Centre.

While in 2011, 51 percent Indians were satisfied with the direction of the country, in 2012 that percentage dropped to 38 percent.

Another 49 percent feel the economic situation will remain the same and worsen in the next one year, the Pew Research said.
Countrymen project GDP growth at 6.9 pc
Indians have projected that the GDP growth will be 6.9 percent in 2012.

Slow pace of reforms, huge fiscal deficit, rising inflation, corruption and a falling rupee have eroded the confidence of the Indian public in the UPA-led government.

"The economic mood is exceedingly glum all around the world" and the public mood has worsened since 2008, with the global economic crisis "widely eroding" support for capitalism, Pew said.

On an average, just 27 percent think their national economy is doing well, according to a survey in 21 countries.

Only in China (83 percent), Germany (73 percent), Brazil (65 percent) and Turkey (57 percent) do most people report that current national economic conditions are good.

Among those who think the economy is doing poorly, people in 16 of 21 countries fault their own government.

Particularly angry at their leadership are the Pakistanis (95 percent blame the government as a primary or secondary culprit), Indians (92 percent), the Mexicans (91 percent), the Japanese (91 percent), the Czechs (91 percent) and the Poles (90 percent).

The report however said there is a "striking contrast" between the economic outlook in the emerging markets of Brazil, China, India and Turkey and that of the European Union and the US.

People living in these emerging economies are generally more likely than Americans or Europeans to say that they are doing better than their parents.

They are twice as likely as Americans and more than three times as likely as Europeans to think economic conditions in their countries are good.

In only six of the 21 nations surveyed do half or more of the population think national economic conditions will improve over the next 12 months.

This includes very optimistic Brazilians (84 percent), Chinese (83 percent) and Tunisians (75 percent) and relatively optimistic Americans (52 percent), Mexicans (51 percent) and Egyptians (50 percent). Only 45 percent of Indians see a better economy on the horizon.
92 percent Indians blame government for economic problems: Pew research

 

[dearone4u_22]

http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/196070-fiscal-deficit-reaches-whopping-rs1-68-trillion.html#post3193889

My post no:6

Thats means Borrowing money 4 Developmental prog for paksitan in future will be difficult...................But Don't worry ...
1) India's GDp forecast lowered
2) India's rupee Fall to 56
3) India's sensex fall by 1%

Hope this news Cheer you up..Afterall You guys are more interested in India's Downfall

.........Thanks for proving me right ...Windjammer

 

[Windjammer]

http://www.defence.pk/forums/economy-development/196070-fiscal-deficit-reaches-whopping-rs1-68-trillion.html#post3193889

My post no:6



.........Thanks for proving me right ...Windjammer

So in the other thread regarding Pakistan, you were trolling and doing the same here. !!

I guess the little break hasn't done you much good. !!

 

[karan.1970]

Some more interesting figures from the same survey jammy quoted

Looks like Chinese tend to blame other people for the economic issues in their country

Pakistanis expect their economic situation to worsen in next 12 months (is that even possible ??? )

49% Indians see economic conditions as good where as only 9 % Pakistanis consider national economy to be healthy

Only 12 % Pakistanis are satisfied with their country's direction against 38% Indians

50% of Pakistanis consider themselves economically worse off than 5 years ago.. Figure for India is 25%

42% Pakistanis consider themselves economically worse off than their parents when they were at the same age. 12% in India

 

[dearone4u_22]

So in the other thread regarding Pakistan, you were trolling and doing the same here. !!

I guess the little break hasn't done you much good. !!

A troll deserves a troll reply

Sitting in Scotland you are worried of 0.7 % dip in GDP of India.....When your Nation is fighting for its Survival..A patriotic Pakistani like you Deserve Nothing more or nothing less

On topic:-
Lower June inflation fuels rate cut pressure

"The unexpected slowdown of inflation is fantastic news, despite the still elevated level: it opens the door for a rate cut already in July," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist with Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

Rate cut would help bring back growth to previous trajectory .........Your buddy China has Already Did that 2 times in past

 

[T90TankGuy]

windjammer do you wake ever morning and browse all Indian news websites , just to get any negative news about India?

 

[Windjammer]

A troll deserves a troll reply

Sitting in Scotland you are worried of 0.7 % dip in GDP of India.....When your Nation is fighting for its Survival..A patriotic Pakistani like you Deserve Nothing more or nothing less

On topic:-
Lower June inflation fuels rate cut pressure

"The unexpected slowdown of inflation is fantastic news, despite the still elevated level: it opens the door for a rate cut already in July," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, an economist with Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.

Rate cut would help bring back growth to previous trajectory .........Your buddy China has Already Did that 2 times in past

All your cousins posting on Pakistan's power shortages and Polio problems must also be suffering from blackouts or may be they have been invited to Pakistan to see the ground situation and post all the negativity about the country, mind you Indians are pretty good at highlighting Pakistan, China and even Bangladesh, however i need not remind you until recent past we had one of the best performing economy in the region, but hey, being an Indian, you have missed your favourite term, terrorism....you see we are currently at a war footing in this menace of WOT, however as for your claim of Survival....it's always a pleasure to burst some bubbles.

$14b textile products export target achieved

 

[karan.1970]

however as for your claim of Survival....it's always a pleasure to burst some bubbles.

$14b textile products export target achieved

Well, the posted headline is for the year 2010-2011 (old news).. Some more recent tid bits though point in a different direction..

Pakistan - Textile Industry Likely To Miss Export Target


According to the documents available with Business Recorder, the export volume of cotton yarn declined by 10.5 percent in the first seven months of the current fiscal year with quantum of cotton yarn exports decreasing from 324.9 million kg in 2010-11 to 290.7 million kg in 2011-12.

Cotton cloth export in terms of volume declined by 15 percent in the current fiscal year with quantum of export dipping from dollars 1,185 (M.sq.mtr) in 2010-11 to dollars 1007.1 (M.sq.mtr) in 2011-12; however, the increase in terms of value was higher comparable to previous year with total cotton cloth exports going up from dollars 1,331 million last year to dollars 1,334 million in the outgoing fiscal year because of 18 percent increase in price per unit.

The price of per unit cotton cloth increased from dollars 1.12 in 2010-11 to dollars 1.33 in the international market.

The export quantity of readymade garments declined by 21 percent during the first seven months of the current fiscal year with total volume decreasing from 19.4 million dozens in 2010-11 to 15.4 million dozen in 2011-12 but the total value of export on account of price per unit increase went up from dollars 937 million for the same period of last year to dollars 945 million in the current fiscal year.

The export quantity of hosiery also declined by 23.7 percent during the first seven months of the current fiscal year but an increase of 19.7 percent in price per unit has helped partially counterbalance the impact of volume decline.

Source: Business Recorder .



$16b textile export target in doubt | The Nation

Chairman APTMA said exports of cotton cloth, knitwear, bed wear and readymade garments are down on an average by 31 per cent, 36 per cent, 31 per cent and 19 per cent respectively in quantity terms since November.

Also, he said, the textile industry in Punjab has witnessed 61 days gas closure since December 27 till date and the federal government has recently restored five days a week gas supply from March 26. But still the APTMA member mills are complaining about low pressure and much more is needed to be done to ensure uninterrupted gas supply to textile mills.

 

[zimmick]

IMF report warns of slump in economic growth in India, China and other developing countries

London, July 17 (ANI): China, India and other major developing countries have reportedly started showing signs of declining economic growth in the wake of the Euro crisis and a sluggish U.S. recovery.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it highlighted the intensification of concern about the developing world, nations that had helped prop up global growth but which are now beginning to slow, and may be nearing crises of their own.
The IMF sounded cautious about a situation where rounds of government stimulus spending and low interest rates have failed to take hold, and left developing and as well as developed countries saddled with debt and other problems that give them little room to maneuver if conditions get worse, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Overall, the world economy is still expected to expand by 3.5 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent next year, only slightly less than fund economists had forecasted in April, the report cited.
However, the research found that the trend is in the wrong direction, in which the growth in the first months of the year was stronger than expected, and the slowdown in developing countries means the world is losing one of its few economic bright spots.
In India and Brazil, policymakers had complained that a glut of dollars was driving up the price of the rupee and real, but now the opposite concern has taken hold as investors pull back in light of the slowdown, while the currencies in those two countries have dropped sharply in recent months.
The IMF said the withdrawal of money from the developing world has not become critical yet, but the firm is worried that some of the world's previous star performers could face a quick turnaround if conditions deteriorate.
"If and when a large downside shock ultimately materializes, these combined vulnerabilities could quickly come to the fore, putting financial stability to a serious test," the fund concluded. (ANI)