IMF June forecast: China only major economy to have positive growth in 2020

[Raphael]

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020

Covid-19 pandemic has truly separated the wheat from the chaff, the competent from the incompetent

 

[Raphael]

Based on fake data from Chinese government.
As reliable as Chinese goods.

If we wanted to, we could have already declared in 2012 that our growth was 2000%, our GDP is $20T USD surpassing US, but we never did that
Hopefully someday Hindus will learn the value of integrity.

 

[Indos]

Indonesia still has chance to have positive growth this year since Indonesia economy is a domestic market driven one, so less vulnerable to get negative effect from weakening global demand. During 2008 global economic crisis, for instant, Indonesia economy still grew at 4.5 % while other countries get negative growth, even India with huge domestic demand also experience quite deep contraction during that period.

Countries in other ASEAN 5 like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are all export driven economy and will get huge negative impact from the weakening global demand. Even Singapore has already experience economic growth contraction last year due to US-China trade war.

What is needed for Indonesia to get positive growth is to keep Covid 19 infection in manageable rate so that domestic demand can still be able to spur the economy. In the first quarter, Indonesia can still manage to get 2.4 % growth while in second quarter Indonesia IMO will not contract too deep since the lock down measure in here was quite relax and many businesses were still operating.

 

[Dark1]

Indonesia still has chance to have positive growth this year since Indonesia economy is a domestic market driven one, so less vulnerable to get negative effect from weakening global demand. During 2008 global economic crisis, for instant, Indonesia economy still grew at 4.5 % while other countries get negative growth, even India with huge domestic demand also experience quite deep contraction during that period.

Countries in other ASEAN 5 like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are all export driven economy and will get huge negative impact from the weakening global demand. Even Singapore has already experience economic growth contraction last year due to US-China trade war.

What is needed for Indonesia to get positive growth is to keep Covid 19 infection in manageable rate so that domestic demand can still be able to spur the economy. In the first quarter, Indonesia can still manage to get 2.4 % growth while in second quarter Indonesia IMO will not contract too deep since the lock down measure in here was quite relax and many businesses were still operating.

Look at the 2021 projections , 8.2 for China and 6.0 for India. Since China is a totally export dependent economy these PROJECTIONS are all vaporware , since they are dependent on foreign countries.
Countries like Indonesia and India, which are domestic consumption dependent have a much better growth prospect.
Chinese are well known to give fake figures to world bodies. This is another example.

 

[Song Hong]

So end of this year, US nominal GDP is 197 trillion USD while China will be 143 trillion. And China GDP will be 73% of US.

 

[Dark1]

So end of this year, US nominal GDP is 197 trillion USD while China will be 143 trillion. And China GDP will be 73% of US.

Wow . Straight to 143 trillion from 12 trillion.
The great leap forward ?

 

[Song Hong]

Wow . Straight to 143 trillion from 12 trillion.
The great leap forward ?

my mistake

US nominal GDP is 19.7 trillion USD while China will be 14.3 trillion.

 

[Figaro]

Look at the 2021 projections , 8.2 for China and 6.0 for India. Since China is a totally export dependent economy these PROJECTIONS are all vaporware , since they are dependent on foreign countries.
Countries like Indonesia and India, which are domestic consumption dependent have a much better growth prospect.
Chinese are well known to give fake figures to world bodies. This is another example.

How is China a "totally export dependent economy"? Did you not here that consumption/services passed 50% of its economy back in 2014?

 

[Song Hong]

US should pray for a devaluation of Yuan rather pressuring China to appreciate Yuan.

A 20% Yuan appreciate couple with 3-4 years of strong growth will see China nominal GDP overtake US by 2025.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Look at the 2021 projections , 8.2 for China and 6.0 for India. Since China is a totally export dependent economy these PROJECTIONS are all vaporware , since they are dependent on foreign countries.
Countries like Indonesia and India, which are domestic consumption dependent have a much better growth prospect.
Chinese are well known to give fake figures to world bodies. This is another example.

Don't get confused. High trade volume =/= trade dependent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_exports

China is one of the least export dependent countries in the world. India is just even less export dependent - but that's because it has little to export except raw materials and labor.

 

[powastick]

Indonesia still has chance to have positive growth this year since Indonesia economy is a domestic market driven one, so less vulnerable to get negative effect from weakening global demand. During 2008 global economic crisis, for instant, Indonesia economy still grew at 4.5 % while other countries get negative growth, even India with huge domestic demand also experience quite deep contraction during that period.

Countries in other ASEAN 5 like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are all export driven economy and will get huge negative impact from the weakening global demand. Even Singapore has already experience economic growth contraction last year due to US-China trade war.

What is needed for Indonesia to get positive growth is to keep Covid 19 infection in manageable rate so that domestic demand can still be able to spur the economy. In the first quarter, Indonesia can still manage to get 2.4 % growth while in second quarter Indonesia IMO will not contract too deep since the lock down measure in here was quite relax and many businesses were still operating.

Indonesia is making a mistake here, within a month or two, Indonesia economy will tank because the coronavirus. It does not look good. Just look at the charts, its growing faster.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/

 

[Daniel808]

Indonesia still has chance to have positive growth this year since Indonesia economy is a domestic market driven one, so less vulnerable to get negative effect from weakening global demand. During 2008 global economic crisis, for instant, Indonesia economy still grew at 4.5 % while other countries get negative growth, even India with huge domestic demand also experience quite deep contraction during that period.

Countries in other ASEAN 5 like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are all export driven economy and will get huge negative impact from the weakening global demand. Even Singapore has already experience economic growth contraction last year due to US-China trade war.

What is needed for Indonesia to get positive growth is to keep Covid 19 infection in manageable rate so that domestic demand can still be able to spur the economy. In the first quarter, Indonesia can still manage to get 2.4 % growth while in second quarter Indonesia IMO will not contract too deep since the lock down measure in here was quite relax and many businesses were still operating.

Seems IMF doesn't think so

Look at the 2021 projections , 8.2 for China and 6.0 for India. Since China is a totally export dependent economy these PROJECTIONS are all vaporware , since they are dependent on foreign countries.
Countries like Indonesia and India, which are domestic consumption dependent have a much better growth prospect.
Chinese are well known to give fake figures to world bodies. This is another example.

Do you think IMF stupid?
IMF should hire uneducated low skill Indians instead of Certified Economic Analyst in their office So they can make predictions of China's Economy going downhill like indian wet dream in here

 

[Dark1]

Do you think IMF stupid?
IMF should hire uneducated low skill Indians instead of Certified Economic Analyst in their office So they can make predictions of China's Economy going downhill

"Gita Gopinath (born 8 December 1971) is an Indian American economist who has been the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2019.[3][4] In that role she is the Director of IMF's Research Department and the Economic Counsellor of the Fund."

 

[Daniel808]

"Gita Gopinath (born 8 December 1971) is an Indian American economist who has been the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2019.[3][4] In that role she is the Director of IMF's Research Department and the Economic Counsellor of the Fund."

Ahh..I know the problem now. Thanks for pointing that out

Because of low skilled indian in their office, thats why IMF get fooled by Chinese fake data

 

[Raphael]

"Gita Gopinath (born 8 December 1971) is an Indian American economist who has been the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2019.[3][4] In that role she is the Director of IMF's Research Department and the Economic Counsellor of the Fund."

Funny you mention her. She has criticized India for fake GDP stats before:

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-chief-gita-gopinath-raises-104703776.html
IMF Chief Gita Gopinath Raises Concerns Of Transparency In India's GDP Data

How come she said nothing about China's stats?