What I said is, IMF estimates for Bangladesh have always been on the lower side when the actual figures turn out to be higher than those estimates. On the other hand, estimates for India have been on the higher side. Take a look at the per capita income estimates for both the countries and you'd realize.
IMF:Bangladesh GDP 249 Billion USD, Per capita 1,525 USD in 2017.
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What I said is, IMF estimates for Bangladesh have always been on the lower side when the actual figures turn out to be higher than those estimates. On the other hand, estimates for India have been on the higher side. Take a look at the per capita income estimates for both the countries and you'd realize.
INDIAISM
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20 dollar gap can be attributed to the currency exchange rate....Most of the last year Taka was stable against Dollar on the other hand INR had lost 3% to 4% of its value to dollar...But this year things are different INR has already appriciated 5% to 6% to dollar on the other side Taka depreciated by around 4%....So you can understand that their are alot of ifs and Buts involve in this 20 Dollar Gap....
So the increase in the gap between India and Bangladesh is less than what the IMF estimates, but the gap is widening nonetheless! its just not widening as fast as the IMF estimates.
As I said, the only way Bangladesh can cover the gap is by growing at a much higher rate than India, or if the Bangladeshi Takka strengthens significantly. The chances of either of that happening is a big fat 0.
Once, the megainfrastructural projects are completed, GDP growth for Bangladesh will shot up. The Padma Bridge alone will add up to 1.5 percentage points to the GDP growth.
On the other hand, we are using the 2004-05 base year, if we change it to 2011-12 prices like India, the figures will turn out to be significantly higher.
Coulda woulda shoulda, we ll talk about it when it actually happens. Right now according to the latest estimates the gap between Indian and Bangladesh is expected to widen, lets leave it at that.
And no one has stopped you from changing the base years, we have heard about it in the past well, base year change, underground economy,
, all this mean nothing when comparing data.Coulda woulda shoulda, we ll talk about it when it actually happens. Right now according to the latest estimates the gap between Indian and Bangladesh is expected to widen, lets leave it at that.
And no one has stopped you from changing the base years, we have heard about it in the past well, base year change, underground economy,
You're right, changing base years mean nothing, it's just a magic that India's growth rates shot up after 2013, co-incidentally the same year when India changed it's base year from 2004-05 to 2011-12.
And the projections of higher GDP growth over the completion of infrastructural projects are facts.
http://www.thedailystar.net/round-tables/padma-bridge-new-lifeline-development-203326
Why do you think the govt. is so hell-bent in building that bridge?
India changes its base year every 5 years because new industries and business worth billions of dollars are coming up and they need to be accounted for. What new type of industry has come up in Bangladesh? LAst time you guys changed the base year in 2013, this was the effect. How different do you think the result will be when the Bangladesh moves to the new 2015-2016 base year?
In India the implementation of GST alone is supposed to add 1.5-2% to the growth rate! The infrastructure push and spending is many times bigger in India than in Bangladesh, and its effects will be much more pronounced. If you think that India is not doing anything to increase the pace of its growth, then you have another think coming!
At best Bangladesh will be able to keep up with India, I don't see it outpacing India. And as long as it doesn't outpace India, it won't be able to overtake India. Having said that happy to see both India and Bangladesh growing at a decent pace.
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Shipbuilding, ICT, Electronics, many more. And it's the prices that raises the figures. Prices of goods in 2011-12 was way higher than that in 2004-05.
GST is a monetary/fiscal reform, not an infrastructural project. And you need to provide a source for the 1.5-2% addition to the growth rate. Such reforms are stated as high risks as they could go either way.
GodToons
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Without going into details of numbers, I got chance to connect with 2 Bangaldeshi's in India who were here for medical treatment.
they were super optimistic about their economy and growth. Kudos to them since they are focusing on growth instead of stupid land and comparison.
they were super optimistic about their economy and growth. Kudos to them since they are focusing on growth instead of stupid land and comparison.
Homo Sapiens
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Latest estimate will always nullify previous projection.IMF projected BD and India's per capita for 2017 as 1511 and 1874 dollar back in 2016,but it turned around to be 1525 and 1850 dollar respectively in their most recent update.We can take their 2017 estimate in 2017 moe confidently than 2016 projection for 2017 as future is something which even IMF can't control.So instead of growing gap,it actually narrowed.It will happen again in 2018,as their estimate is more conservative for BD than for India.
2016 Bangladesh Per capita GDP was $1400, and 2016 India per capita GDP was $1747, a difference of $347.
2017 Bangladesh per capita GDP was supposed to be $1511, and India's per capita was supposed to be $1874 a difference of $363.
However, according to the latest WEO, from April 2017,
2016 Bangladesh Per capita GDP was $1411, and 2016 India per capita GDP was $1723, a difference of $322.
2017 Bangladesh per capita GDP was supposed to be $1524, and India's per capita was supposed to be, $1850 a difference of $326.
These are estimates once again, they change, depending on the growth rate and exchange rates. You can not take estimates from one year and compare it to series of estimates from another year, and claim oh look the gap is widening, that's just retarded.
Good grief, but it also nullifies the data for the previous years not just for 2017! Agreed?
According to the April, 2017 WEO estimate,
The gap between India and Bangladesh in 2016 was $322, and the gap is $326 dollars in 2017, and it will be $347 in 2018. Now you tell me if the gap is narrowing or widening! Since these are estimates, the figures might not be exactly the same when the WEO is published in the next year, but I don't see any evidence of the gap narrowing.
What you are doing is, taking one figure from the WEO 2016, and another figure from WEO 2017, and saying look, the gap is narrowing!
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Homo Sapiens
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I didn't took their backward or forward projection for comparing 2016 and 2017 per capita figure.346 and 325 dollar was taken from their respective current year estimation.So we can confidently say that,gap is narrowing.
damiendehorn
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Lets keep calm and keep growing, hater are just gonna hate......
I didn't took their backward or forward projection for comparing 2016 and 2017 per capita figure.346 and 325 dollar was taken from their respective current year estimation.So we can confidently say that,gap is narrowing.
Thought so, you were just cherry picking to score a worthless point. Still the fact remains and is for everyone to see that, the gap between India and Bangladesh is widening, and will continue to widen according to the latest IMF estimates.
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