IMF agrees to extend the stalled bailout programme by up to one year and increase the loan size to $8 billion

[TheDarkKnight]

Carrots for the good behavior?
@Chak Bamu
So I guess the threats detailed in the letter were real, that if no confidence move is successful then Pakistan will be forgiven. I also see Pakistan coming out of FATF soon.

Note: I dont buy into the conspiracy theory. USA is too powerfull to actually need to conspire against Pakistan - it was just plain old dictation in what needs to happen.. period. And this is not new or first time where politicians have asked foreign powers for support, even Asif Zaradri asked for help against Kayani, Fazul Rahman seeked support for his installment as per wiki leaks etc.

 

[satyamev]

india finances its fancy projects through internal accruals like 100 % tax on petrol.
While Pakistan funds its projects through external loans.
In India's case, the Indian citizen takes the burden of higher prices, while in Pakistan's case the rolling external debt has been bankrolling the low petrol prices,in absence of a tax base and low indirect taxes.
Whether both give enough returns is another discussion.
Which is a more sustainable model , i leave to the readers.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Were these losers against IMF just a month back. What happened to the state bank governor autonomy now ? these stooges were supposed to free us from the shackles of IMF slavery. Wasn't this the main talking point for shahbaz and bilawal just a month back.

 

[RescueRanger]

Shameless.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Noony hypocrites will never have a sane justification for this.

 

[Ssan]

india finances its fancy projects through internal accruals like 100 % tax on petrol.
While Pakistan funds its projects through external loans.
In India's case, the Indian citizen takes the burden of higher prices, while in Pakistan's case the rolling external debt has been bankrolling the low petrol prices,in absence of a tax base and low indirect taxes.
Whether both give enough returns is another discussion.
Which is a more sustainable model , i leave to the readers.

Indias political economy is less concerned about prices and inflation. Or even poverty or wealth or class or caste differences. Fundamental different political economies.

 

[Big_bud]

PTI vs PMLN

Recovery year 2022 (9months) vs 2018 - 5th year results.

9 months vs 12 months

 

[RescueRanger]

The problem with this patwari mentality is their thinking to resolve anything is to get more loans. Remember Trump et.al- never trust a failed businessman as a leader of a country.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

The problem with this patwari mentality is their thinking to resolve anything is to get more loans. Remember Trump et.al- never trust a failed businessman as a leader of a country.

Actually patwaris are downright hypocrite and liars of the highest order. Few months back they used to abuse JKT and Aleem Khan on media by calling them as sugar mafia chor and land grabbers but now are sharing bed with them. The level of hypocrisy and low morality is astounding when it comes to a patwari (noony).

 

[Wood]

Read Confessions of an economic hitman by John Perkins. Its available as an audio book on YouTube as well. Your perception of things might change.

I've read this in my school days. Things are not the same

 

[RescueRanger]

Actually patwaris are downright hypocrite and liars of the highest order. Few months back they used to abuse JKT and Aleem Khan on media by calling them as sugar mafia chor and land grabbers but now are sharing bed with them. The level of hypocrisy and low morality is astounding when it comes to a patwari (noony).

I fully agree - they have no morals. Just look at the type of people holding posts of “special assistant to PM” or advisors - all old buzzards with no new or talented candidates.

Our Minister for Health is a former brick layer.

 

[satyamev]

Indias political economy is less concerned about prices and inflation. Or even poverty or wealth or class or caste differences. Fundamental different political economies.

have to disagree.
It depends on the election cycle.
Since we have elections here not selections.

 

[Wood]

Imran Khan PTI didn't even have simple majority and even in that case all opposition needed was buying dozen MNA to throw him out. You cannot do hard painful reform in such situation.

Under N league Pakistan debt to GDP ratio have always increased manifold. See here, they inherit Pakistan with lower debt to GDP ratio and leave it with much higher for next govt to bring it down. They repeat this cycle to fund useless projects that doesn't give any return. This is why N league is known for big ticket fancy development projects in Pakistan.

View attachment 837720

another example, suddenly PTI had to pay 2-3 times more per year.

View attachment 837721

I had this question before, what was debt to GDP before GDP was rebased? Since then, I've noticed that even the new finance minister made the same connection in a Twitter thread that was posted here.

As for debt servicing, you had mentioned that 90% of loans were used for this in an earlier thread. That erodes the sheen of this achievement.

My intention is not to be a mere contrarian. I only raise the simple question to connect the perceived increase in Pakistani economic output with macro economic reform from PTI. Thus far, only real answer has been the monetary move to deregulate currency. This seems to be an IMF requirement that the current administration is likely to continue. So in that sphere at least, the current administration can be assumed to be as effective as the last one.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Carrots for the good behavior?
@Chak Bamu
So I guess the threats detailed in the letter were real, that if no confidence move is successful then Pakistan will be forgiven. I also see Pakistan coming out of FATF soon.

Note: I dont buy into the conspiracy theory. USA is too powerfull to actually conspire against Pakistan - it was just plain old dictation in what needs to happen. And this is not new or first time where politicians have asked foreign powers for support, even Asif Zaradri asked for help against Kayani, Fazul Rahman seeked support for his installment in wiki leaksZ etc.

Due to long-standing unresolved systemic issues, Pakistan ends up at IMF's door every few years. You are 100% right that USA needs not conspire against Pakistan. There are plenty of control levers with which to compel Pakistan to act a certain way. Therefore, any attempt on Pakistan's part to resist dictation is to resolve systemic issues, which nobody has the stomach to do, not IK at least. That is why Kurrupshun chooran was necessary for as long as it could capture people's attention; now that it no longer does so, a new conspiracy chooran has been launched to replace it.

Until & unless Pakistan is able to restructure taxation, policy-making, & focus on HDI, there is no hope for much improvement. That is why I do not consider PML-N as a viable alternative either, because just like PPP & PTI, this too is a political party of status-quo, stuffed with similar rent-seeking elite which feeds off lop-sided policies that enrich the said elite.

On top of this systemic issue, we have yet another, much bigger one - who gets to run Pakistan? Militablishment or civilian political leaders as per the constitution? We are still trying to resolve this quandary as of yet. Only once we have resolved this can we focus on the urgent systemic issues. Why so? Because the above mentioned systemic issues are inextricably linked with it. For example, who will make policy to prioritize HDI, without which economy can not sustainably grow? How will budgetary allocations be made to achieve this? Which budgets to cut in order to balance the taxation & expenditure, or at least bring some semblance of fiscal discipline?

If PTI did nothing to address either civ-mil dynamic (actually made it worse IMV) and/or address systemic issues relating to economy, then the whole brouhaha about a conspiracy falls flat on its face. When nothing was done to get out of a trap, what use crying about being in it?

In 1998, when Pakistan did go against US dictation & suffered the economic consequences, it was a chance to set right some of the systemic issues. It also shows where & to what extent Pakistan can take a stand & what price will we as a nation be willing to pay. Without such a view crying about a set of events that may or may not be connected to a conspiracy is pointless & mere political posturing for narrow & selfish purposes.

PS> Thank you @Areesh for your laughing emoji reaction. Its like a stamp of approval

 

[Wood]

On top of this systemic issue, we have yet another, much bigger one - who gets to run Pakistan? Militablishment or civilian political leaders as per the constitution? We are still trying to resolve this quandary as of yet.

One achievement by Imran is that he has dethroned the army in dominance hierarchy among its core support group in the population. I see that in PDF. Imran's words are clearly taken over ISPR statements