manlion
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It is not surprising that China is miffed with us. They want to ‘teach’ us a lesson for not obeying their command. Be that as it may, there are many issues which the Chinese will have to consider before they decide to blow the balloon.
First and foremost is their standing as the manufacturing hub of the world which will take a severe beating if they decide to go to war. It will send a message that the country is not peaceful, which can result in major disruptions in supply and transport of goods being produced, not to mention the risk of being bombed out, as can happen in any war. If this were to happen, the economic might which the Chinese boast of, could seriously erode overnight. Without manufacturing, China could well be a basket case.
Secondly, America will not allow China to get away so easily. Even in our 1962 war with China, they’d helped us with weapons and ammunition. This time, they’ll do much more. The Malabar exercise held recently along with Japan and America was precisely for this purpose. Americans will never allow the Chinese to disrupt the international order which though chaotic is still balanced in America’s favor. If they let China take the lead, the standing of America will take a severe beating.
I haven’t mentioned Russia in the current context because Russia’s relationship with China is ambivalent. While they haven’t been best of friends in the past, their relationship is currently cordial. On the other hand while our relationship with Russia was very good in the past it is just a shade better than cordial currently. In all probability, Russia will just try and use its good offices to prevent the war. They won’t come out in our support openly.
Pertinent to mention that Pakistan may also try and take advantage of the situation, in Kashmir. They may believe that this is a golden opportunity for them to wrest Kashmir from India. Here again, Americans have a strong handle which they can use to keep Pakis away. This is exactly the reason why Americans haven’t declared Pak a terrorist nation. If they were to do so, the leeway that they currently have would be gone.
It is quite likely that Chinese are actually just testing the waters. They’re not sure of our PM Narendra Modi. By trying to create a tense situation they may want to see if he buckles or not. In the past, many times Indian government has kept Chinese sensibilities in mind while dealing with many issues including that of Dalai Lama and Tibetans. This includes recognizing Tibet as part of China. However, of late, the government and its ministers have been seen courting Dalai Lama quite openly, which is anathema for Chinese.
Lastly, even if an actual war is still long way off, if it comes to the worst, we should be prepared to do what we ought to and fight tooth and nail. After 1962 also, we’ve given Chinese a bloody nose on a couple of occasions in the same area, though the incidents were local in nature. It is not that the Chinese cannot be defeated. They can be, especially in night warfare where they’re weak. If Vietnam can beat China, so can we. This is not 1962.
https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/if-vietnam-can-beat-china-so-can-we-this-is-not-1962
First and foremost is their standing as the manufacturing hub of the world which will take a severe beating if they decide to go to war. It will send a message that the country is not peaceful, which can result in major disruptions in supply and transport of goods being produced, not to mention the risk of being bombed out, as can happen in any war. If this were to happen, the economic might which the Chinese boast of, could seriously erode overnight. Without manufacturing, China could well be a basket case.
Secondly, America will not allow China to get away so easily. Even in our 1962 war with China, they’d helped us with weapons and ammunition. This time, they’ll do much more. The Malabar exercise held recently along with Japan and America was precisely for this purpose. Americans will never allow the Chinese to disrupt the international order which though chaotic is still balanced in America’s favor. If they let China take the lead, the standing of America will take a severe beating.
I haven’t mentioned Russia in the current context because Russia’s relationship with China is ambivalent. While they haven’t been best of friends in the past, their relationship is currently cordial. On the other hand while our relationship with Russia was very good in the past it is just a shade better than cordial currently. In all probability, Russia will just try and use its good offices to prevent the war. They won’t come out in our support openly.
Pertinent to mention that Pakistan may also try and take advantage of the situation, in Kashmir. They may believe that this is a golden opportunity for them to wrest Kashmir from India. Here again, Americans have a strong handle which they can use to keep Pakis away. This is exactly the reason why Americans haven’t declared Pak a terrorist nation. If they were to do so, the leeway that they currently have would be gone.
It is quite likely that Chinese are actually just testing the waters. They’re not sure of our PM Narendra Modi. By trying to create a tense situation they may want to see if he buckles or not. In the past, many times Indian government has kept Chinese sensibilities in mind while dealing with many issues including that of Dalai Lama and Tibetans. This includes recognizing Tibet as part of China. However, of late, the government and its ministers have been seen courting Dalai Lama quite openly, which is anathema for Chinese.
Lastly, even if an actual war is still long way off, if it comes to the worst, we should be prepared to do what we ought to and fight tooth and nail. After 1962 also, we’ve given Chinese a bloody nose on a couple of occasions in the same area, though the incidents were local in nature. It is not that the Chinese cannot be defeated. They can be, especially in night warfare where they’re weak. If Vietnam can beat China, so can we. This is not 1962.
https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/if-vietnam-can-beat-china-so-can-we-this-is-not-1962
