If Not Pak-Fa then what for India ??

[Abingdonboy]

LOL - Pakistan will start getting the J-31 around 2020 and that will totally outclass ANYTHING
that India has.

a) The PAF won't be getting J-31s in 2020 (the plane won't be ready by then)
b) The J-XXs (J-31 and J-20) are not going to be superior to the mature plaforms of the Super Su or Rafale (F4+)

The b point will be contenious for all Chinese fanboys but anyone outside their fan club knows that whilst the J-XXs shells look very nice the internals (propulsion and avionics) are going to be DECADES behind the West/Russians. Today China's actual design and development success is very modest and they are facing difficulties operationalising even those designs they have stolen (Flankers and Lavi).

@Vauban @MilSpec @nair @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The b point will be contenious for all Chinese fanboys but anyone outside their fan club knows that whilst the J-XXs shells look very nice the internals (propulsion and avionics) are going to be DECADES behind the West/Russians. Today China's actual design and development success is very modest and they are facing difficulties operationalising even those designs they have stolen (Flankers and Lavi).

@Vauban @MilSpec @nair @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ

Looks like you have nothing to worry about then.

Anyway, mass production of J-20 is going to start in 2017. That's only a year away.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Looks like you have nothing to worry about then.

Anyway, mass production of J-20 is going to start in 2017. That's only a year away.

This analysis is based mostly on American airpower experts, mass production beginning in 2017 is an utter joke when you don't have a proper engine powering it. India gets so much $hit because it is open and transparant about its issues but the Chinese have a grip on the flow of information and no compulsion to present a truthful picture but propoganda has its limits. Using basic reasoning you can cut through this nonsensical propoganda, anyone who thinks the J-20 can possibly get into service BEFORE the F-35 despite the F-35 representing the pinnacle of Western technological capabilities in the present day is out of their mind.

Provide me credible reasons why China has been able to contract the R&D cycle and go against the basis of science, stealing blueprtins will only get you so far- there are no shortcuts to success.

Before the F-22 and F-35 the Amercians had produced the F-15, F-18, F-16 etc, before the J-20 China has produced.....? Arguably the JF-17 is the sole product of their in-house design and devlopment cycle and even that bird is said to be a "super Mig-21" and little more. So we are expected to beleive the J-20 will be the natural progression of that work and able to beat the Western/Russian OEMs right out of the gates? Do you think you can take us for fools? The SPECTRA found on the Rafale is the world's most effective sensor fusion system it outperforms even the F-22, there is nothing China has in response to this, there is nothing China has in response to the MICA etc etc.

China will get there- it is inevitable, but it is still going to be DECADES before it does, you simply can not expect China to outperform historical precedent.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

You simply can expect China to outperform historical precedent.

Keep underestimating us, I'm enjoying it.

Nobody thought China would even have a 5th generation prototype by 2025-2030. Read the reaction of the US defence secretary when the J-20 first flew.

Yet we have almost ten prototypes flying and operational already, the last few showing signs of finalization (fewer and fewer changes), perfectly in line with our goal of mass production by 2017-2018.

The outside world has always had a habit of underestimating us. Check the old World Bank reports, they thought we would only surpass Japan's economy by 2020-2025. Read their reactions when China tested successful ASAT, inducted the world's first ASBM (DF-21D), etc.

Keep underestimating us, and we'll keep surprising you. Not long to wait.

Provide me credible reasons why China has been able to contract the R&D cycle and go against the basis of science, stealing blueprtins will only get you so far- there are no shortcuts to success.

That's what people said about our three decades of sustained double-digit growth.

It has never been done before in recorded history, so China can't do it. Same with the DF-21D.

There has never been a developed country with 1+ billion people before either, but that's our goal too. We intend to continue breaking old records.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Keep underestimating us, I'm enjoying it.

Nobody thought China would even have a 5th generation prototype by 2025-2030. Read the reaction of the US defence secretary when the J-20 first flew.

Yet we have almost ten prototypes flying and operational already, the last few showing signs of finalization (fewer and fewer changes), perfectly in line with our goal of mass production by 2017-2018.

The outside world has always had a habit of underestimating us. Check the old World Bank reports, they thought we would only surpass Japan's economy by 2020-2025. Read their reactions when China tested successful ASAT, inducted the world's first ASBM (DF-21D), etc.

Keep underestimating us, and we'll keep surprising you. Not long to wait.

Fair enough but I will stick by my assesment, Chinese are bound by the same limits to human capacity as the rest of us. There is an established progression cycle that China has to follow, at its current level it is where the Russians were in the late 80s. Remember the Su-47? That looked to be a very impressive product but was nothing more than a (failed) technology demonstrator, the J-20 should be no different. You can't go from producing the JF-17 to a cedible 5th gen fighter in the span of less than a decade, in fact stating that China would go to production with its very first 5th gen product with no technology demonstrator only proves this point. Even the assertion that the S-35S purchase by China is to get the tech to produce the 5th Gen birds undermines rather than supports China's abilties right now as you wouldn't be able to incorporate the Su-35S tech in less than 4 years.

The Chinese can make some very impressive looking shells but these are entirely hollow showpeices, the heart of a 5th gen fighter (even 4.5++) is its avionics and powerplant, here China remains decades behind. Even IF they can get a homemade powerplant for the J-20, is it going to be as capable as the F135? F119 or even the AL-41? Not a chance.And in terms of software, the Chinese are even further behind and nowhere near the world leaders.

The PLA(AF) is trying to dupe their people/the world as communists love to do but none of the offical narrative holds up to any level of scrutiny.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The PLA(AF) is trying to dupe their people/the world as communists love to do but none of the offical narrative holds up to any level of scrutiny.

No doubt this great masquerade will come crashing down in the next Sino-Indian War, when our ASAT will fall out of the sky, our DF-21D will miss every target, and our J-20 will prove to be nothing more than a paper plane.

As before, we'll just have to wait and see. But we have a habit of surpassing expectations. Everyone always underestimates us, and they always realize it too late.

 

[Abingdonboy]

No doubt this great masquerade will come crashing down in the next Sino-Indian War, when our ASAT will fall out of the sky, our DF-21D will miss every target, and our J-20 will prove to be nothing more than a paper plane.

As before, we'll just have to wait and see. But we have a habit of surpassing expectations. Everyone always underestimates us, and they always realize it too late.

Far enough sir, I've made my points and you have made yours, let's conclude this discussion as there is no way of settling this one qay or another.

You are right, only the passage of time will prove who is right.

 

[nang2]

Keep underestimating us, I'm enjoying it.

Nobody thought China would even have a 5th generation prototype by 2025-2030. Read the reaction of the US defence secretary when the J-20 first flew.

Yet we have almost ten prototypes flying and operational already, the last few showing signs of finalization (fewer and fewer changes), perfectly in line with our goal of mass production by 2017-2018.

The outside world has always had a habit of underestimating us. Check the old World Bank reports, they thought we would only surpass Japan's economy by 2020-2025. Read their reactions when China tested successful ASAT, inducted the world's first ASBM (DF-21D), etc.

Keep underestimating us, and we'll keep surprising you. Not long to wait.



That's what people said about our three decades of sustained double-digit growth.

It has never been done before in recorded history, so China can't do it. Same with the DF-21D.

There has never been a developed country with 1+ billion people before either, but that's our goal too. We intend to continue breaking old records.

You say you enjoy them underestimating you. You don't. Otherwise, you wouldn't be babbling so much. You babble beause your ego is hurt. If you really enjoy, just smile and keep quiet.

 

[UKBengali]

@Abingdonboy

Even the Russians have admitted that China is superior in avionics and airframe technology.
They are only slightly behind in engines but that should be rectified by 2020.

You simply do not have the analytical ability to take into account the pre-existing base(JF-17 and J-10) and the almost limitless funds that the Chinese have at their disposal to produce a cutting edge 5th generation fighter.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The most simple and lucid assessment to this thread is in simple questions

- Is PAKFA a 5th Generation Jet?
- Yes but only in concept..

- Why in concept?
- Bcz the heart of PAKFA is not ready yet

- SO what is PAKFA classification atm?
- 4.75++ to under 5th Gen

- Are there any other birds similar to this what you said above?
- The to be Mass produced Chinese twin 5th Gen program comes in the same league. Their hearts the homegrown engine in its most stable form is expected within max 5-10 years so may be around 2024-25 the new J series produced and older ones may get the new heart

- Then which are the 5G birds
- F22 Raptor and Work in Progress F35

-What about India plans for PAKFA
- India requirement is 5th Gen PAKFA which acts as the base model for integrating and customizing PAKFA with Indian, French and Israeli stuff. Since PAKFA 5th Gen is not ready India has to wait.. no other choice.

- What about threat perceptions that China deploy J Series 4.75++ under 5G birds in South Asian theater.
- Threat perception is high but better upgrade the Aerial Surveillance and Long Ranged SAMs for the time being. India i dont think is a major issue for China atm. For them its USA and Japan and issue of SCS which needs such 4.75++ birds deployments.

- Any final comments
- Lets not underestimate Chinese 5th Gen program and at the same time press panic button
- Lets not get swayed by the delay in PAKFA program and have patience for the new engine development for PAKFA.
- Lets not jump the wagon and buy anything else that comes under 5th Gen
- Lets use this time to strengthen our fleet to 4.5++ capabilities first

 

[ANPP]

@ANPP

Its ......
Well we don't have enough money to get a 4.5th gen Rafale to replace our 3rd gen legacy fighters and what does make you think that we will be able to replace about 400aircrafts by 5th gen ?

Hmm. Last time they were talking about 2 sqdr of FC20. Still none. World of defense procurement is full of surprises my friend. Wait and watch.

LOL - Pakistan will start getting the J-31 around 2020 and that will totally outclass ANYTHING
that India has.

We have to replace these fighter sooner or later. If not 5gen than 6gen( more expensive).

 

[帅的一匹]

Hurry up, we can't wait you too long.两架最新型歼-20战机同时现身

 

[Pandemonium]

Does france have any plans to develop 5th generation fighters ?
I think for india fgfa is the only jet we can get at the earliest . All other options will not be possible till at least 2025 or maybe more

 

[Indian Jatt]

I would like to see india not getting any 5 gen fighter, i want to see the awestruck face of our air chief, i want to see those dalals empty handed, when india was refused for cryogenic engine, india built the engine itself, when US dumped india on coordinates, india built its own constellation of satellite's, we are not some south African country or a neighbour in the west, when we get kicked, we make sure their market gets kicked as well.....

 

[DesiGuy1403]

Can anyone explain why IAF has been so poor in building the eco system for Indian made jets and weaponry where as Indian Navy has been making tremendous strides?

I know there is a rot in our military like any public service but that can't be the sole reason!