If Arab Oil Runs Out

[Ras]

USA the biggest Oil consumer will suffer the most

Only 20% of US oil comes from the ME...hardly a crippling dependence.

 

[Old School]

If Arab oil runs out , the price of oil will rise in Pakistan and other importing countries unless we find alternative supplier with satisfactory pricing. This is simple math. It will have adverse effect in the economy not in the Arab countries but also other oil importing Asian countries. Pakistan and India do not produce enough oil to cover the national demand and the cost will be higher to import from Russia which will have almost monopoly in Asia.

 

[Pasban]

Well Saudia Arabia under this king has been progressing so i guess it will survive just fine and it also has gold mines.The real deepshit countries would be UAE, Iraq, Iran etc.

Why would Iran be in deepsh*t when it is less dependent on it's oil reserves than neighboring Persian Gulf states and has the most developed and varied industrial base of them all. The belief that Iran is only what it is because of oil reserves is a popular yet false one. Oil was only discovered in Iran during the mid-1920s and the country's existence and it's periods of historical heights have all preceded the oil exploration. I would see Saudi Arabia and Iraq in a more difficult position if they were to know that it's reserves would soon be depleted. The UAE, given it's diminutive reserves, began expanding into tertiary industries to offset the eventual loss they would face. The UAE and Iran have made themselves much better geared in regards to a, if on an extreme footing, a non-petroleum export based economy.

 

[CAPTAIN AMERICA]

Why would Iran be in deepsh*t when it is less dependent on it's oil reserves than neighboring Persian Gulf states and has the most developed and varied industrial base of them all. The belief that Iran is only what it is because of oil reserves is a popular yet false one. Oil was only discovered in Iran during the mid-1920s and the country's existence and it's periods of historical heights have all preceded the oil exploration. I would see Saudi Arabia and Iraq in a more difficult position if they were to know that it's reserves would soon be depleted. The UAE, given it's diminutive reserves, began expanding into tertiary industries to offset the eventual loss they would face. The UAE and Iran have made themselves much better geared in regards to a, if on an extreme footing, a non-petroleum export based economy.

Iran is not doing very well right now.

Iran's Economic Troubles Mount As Sanctions Loom
April 5, 2010 | Mike Shuster | NPR


The dramatic political turmoil in Iran since last year's disputed presidential election has been well publicized. But less well known are the country's economy troubles. And now Iran is facing a U.S.-led effort at the United Nations Security Council to impose more economic sanctions.

Like much of the information coming from Iran, economic data is hard to trust. But it appears Iran's unemployment rate has reached about 20 percent. Actual inflation is probably running higher than that, and has been above 20 percent for years.

More World News Iran's currency, the rial, is weak, its value propped up by government use of oil revenues. The country's banking system is also shaky.

And now, Iran is facing a U.S.-led effort at the United Nations Security Council to impose more economic sanctions.

A Struggle With Subsidies

Iran's economic problems are linked to its extensive use of subsidies — billions of dollars a year — to keep basic necessities such as electricity, gasoline, bread and other food staples far below their true market value.

Experts say subsidies could eventually bankrupt the Iranian government, and so this year, a great debate has emerged over subsidies, says Hossein Askari, an expert on Iran's economy at George Washington University.

"Iran has realized that subsidies are very costly, not the way to develop an economy, but they have, I think, used subsidies because they have seen this as the best mechanism, depending on who is in power, in order to get political support," he says.

Earlier this year, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proposed reducing government subsidies. But ever the populist, Ahmadinejad asked the parliament to let him use billions of dollars of revenue from reduced subsidies to distribute to poor people at his own discretion.

This has been Ahmadinejad's approach since he was first elected president in 2005, says Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, an Iran expert at Virginia Tech.

"Without giving money to the poorer people, it would be impossible to implement the price increase and have peace in large cities," Salehi-Isfahani says.

The president and the parliament have not yet found common ground, so subsidy reduction is on hold for the moment, analysts say.

Political Interference

The troubled banking system also has been affected by Iranian politics, Askari says.

"In a system like Iran's, there's a great deal of pressure on the political side for the banks to do what they're told to do, and not what they should do as good bankers," he says. "So, yes, Iran's banking system is a mess."

Ahmadinejad has forced the banks to lend money at artificially low rates of interest. At the same time, says Salehi-Isfahani, state-owned enterprises, which dominate the economy, insist that banks provide them with more rials when they cannot pay their workers.

"So the banks on the one hand are unable to attract depositors because they can't pay interest enough to match at least the inflation rate," he says. "And at the other end, the money they have lent out they are not able to recoup."

What keeps Iran's economy afloat are the billions of dollars it makes exporting oil, but even that is in trouble. Sanctions imposed by the United States over the last 14 years have discouraged foreign oil companies from investing in Iran's oil sector and helping to modernize it.

Iranian oil exports are far less today than they were in the 1970s, before the Islamic Revolution ousted the shah.

Under U.S. pressure, the Russian oil company Lukoil recently pulled out of a deal with Iran — as have European and Asian oil companies.

Iranian officials have made the claim for years that Chinese oil companies have supported Iran's energy industry with billions in new deals. But Askari has his doubts.

"The Iranians love to publicize this, you know, a lot of bravado. But there really is no substance to it," Askari says. "There is absolutely no doubt that the Chinese do not have the technology that the Western oil companies have

 

[JonAsad]

To be honest, if arab oil runs out so is their luck.

 

[Time Assassin]

If OIL runs out.

Then we need to build a Green Planet.

Or Motha Russia!!! But thats going to cost alot.

Eventually if we don't change ourways, then we might end up fighting for the last drips of Oil.

 

[zz5168]

"If Arab Oil Runs Out"------------------->

Peace will finally come to Arab.