IDP's: Influx from NWFP troubled areas continues

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UN calls for massive Pakistan aid ​

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The UNHCR calls for huge amounts of aid for those displaced in Pakistan

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Antonio Guterres, has called for a massive aid operation to help those displaced in north-west Pakistan.

He said that in the past two weeks, the UN had registered more than 800,000 Pakistanis fleeing fighting between the army and the Taleban.

Without help, he warned, they could contribute to the instability.

Mr Guterres was speaking after visiting makeshift camps housing those displaced by the conflict in the Swat valley.

Antonio Guterres visited camps for the thousands of displaced people
He said many were living in harsh conditions in very hot weather, and urged a massive injection of emergency aid so their grievances would not spark further conflict.

He said: "If you are not able to cope with the challenges posed by such an overwhelming number of people displaced, in communities that have not the economic capacity to absorb them, and if the very serious humanitarian response is not organised, this population will become a huge factor of destabilisation."

Dramatic situation

Mr Guterres added that the authorities recognised that both the number of displaced and the speed with which they had fled, had created a situation as dramatic as the conflict.

Those in the makeshift camps are enduring harsh conditions in hot weather2
They join at least 500,000 people already uprooted by the army's battles against the Taleban, in a region that has hosted Afghan refugees for decades.

It was clear, said Mr Guterres, that the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan now had one of the most alarming patterns of displacement in the world.

Fighting has continued in the Swat region and the neighbouring district of Lower Dir. The military says 54 militants and nine soldiers have been killed over the last 24 hours. These figures cannot be independently confirmed.

The Taleban are waging an insurgency to impose Sharia law, and to expand the areas they control in Pakistan.

 

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1.1m displaced persons registered in NWFP ​

PESHAWAR: The NWFP government has so far registered around 1.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs). The provincial government has also increased the number of registration points from 16 to 40 in Mardan district, eight to 15 in Swabi district, seven to 15 in Charsadda district, three to 15 in Peshawar district, three to 10 in Nowshera district and three new points have been set up in Kohat district. The NWFP Social Welfare Department is registering the IDPs in collaboration with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

 

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DON'T GIVE CASH TO ZARDARI!!!!!!!

 

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AJK PM donates Rs 200m for IDPs​

ISLAMABAD: Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Prime Minister (PM) Sardar Yaqoob Khan on Monday met PM Yousuf Raza Gilani and presented him a Rs 20 million cheque for the PM’s Special Fund for the relief of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) of Malakand division.

 

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‘IDPs’ stay in Sindh temporary’: Sindh govt asks IDPs to get registered​

* Sindh information minister says IDPs will stay at camps outside cities and towns​

KARACHI: The Sindh government has asked the internally displaced people (IDPs) arriving from Swat, Buner, Lower Dir and Bajaur to have themselves registered and stay at camps being set up outside the cities and towns of the province.

Speaking at a press conference here on Monday evening, Sindh Information Minister Shazia Marri vowed that the government and the ruling PPP would assist the IDPs. However, she also appealed to the IDPs to cooperate with the provincial administration for maintaining their record, adding that the government would take care of them till peace is established in their areas.

Sindh Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah had convened a meeting on Sunday and directed the home department to evolve a proper monitoring system at entry points on the borders of Ubauro, Kandhkot-Kashmore, and also the Toll Plaza in Karachi.

He had announced that the reception and relief camps would be set up at points where proper registration of the IDPs would be arranged.

The issue of the IDPs’ influx into the Sindh, especially in Karachi, had become serious with different Sindh-based parties including Jeay Sindh Qaumi Mahaz, Jeay Sindh Tarraqi Pasand Party and Awami Tehreek strongly opposing to the continuous arrival of the IDPs and separately announced schedules of protest.

The ruling MQM has already expressed its reservations over the issue. “We cannot stop them from coming here at this juncture as they are in trouble but the IDPs should cooperate,” said Marri while adding that the number of IDPs here is not 100,000 but much less than that.

Responding to a question, she admitted that the province was already facing difficulties, as large numbers of Afghans, who had migrated here during the Afghan War, have still not returned to their homeland.

According to her, the IDPs coming from Swat and other areas were not migrants and were arriving here temporarily and would go back to their areas after the situation there becomes stable.

“The federal government would also be approached for ensuring their return to their areas after peace returns,” she added.

According to her, the provincial government has directed the DCOs of Ghotki and Kashmore to register the IDPs as they enter in the province through buses.

She also appealed to those IDPs who had entered without registration to get registered.

Elaborating about the government’s decision of getting the IDPs registered, the minister said that the government wants to take care of them properly and wants to ensure that no militant is entering here in the guise of an IDP. She however said that as yet, the government has no reports of miscreants entering into the province.

 

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US unveils $110m in emergency aid for IDPs​

* Hillary says she senses a ‘national mood change’ in Pakistan against Taliban​

WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton unveiled on Tuesday $110 million in emergency aid for civilians fleeing the military operation against Taliban in Swat, Buner and Lower Dir.

“We’re doing this because the future of Pakistan is extremely important to the United States,” Clinton told a press conference at the White House. “The advance of extremism is a threat to our security,” she added.

But the top US diplomat said she sensed a “national mood change” against the Taliban in Pakistan, and heaped praise on the military offensive against the Taliban.

“There is a real national mood change on the part of the Pakistani people that we are watching and obviously are encouraged by,” Clinton said.

The aid from the State Department and Pentagon will be sent to Pakistan to help ease the plight of two million people who have fled the fighting in northwest Pakistan, a White House statement said.

The funds will be used to deliver tents, halal meats, water trucks, generators and other supplies, Clinton said, adding some of the money would be used to buy Pakistani wheat to boost the local economy. “Pakistan is facing a major humanitarian crisis,” she said.

Pakistan can succeed in coping with the crisis but only if the international community and the US do its share, Hillary said.

“Providing this assistance is not only the right thing to do but essential” to ensuring global security, she added. afp

 

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RS 8 billion package for IDPs announced ​

ISLAMABAD (May 20, 2009): A high level meeting held in the Presidency on Wednesday vowed to adopt all measures for the relief and rehabilitation of internally displaced persons and decided on a package of relief measures.

The meeting, jointly presided over by President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani, decided to provide Rs. 8 billion initially for the relief work to be carried out by various relief agencies besides a one time grant of Rs. 25,000 per household direct to the displaced families.

The meeting among others was attended by Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi, Minister for Information and Broadcasting Qamar Zaman Kaira, Minister for Interior Rehman Malik, Advisor to PM on Finance Shaukat Tareen, Chairperson Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) Farzana Raja, MNA Farah Ispahani, Governor NWFP Owais Ahmed Ghani, Chief Minister NWFP Amir Haider Khan Hoti, Minister of State for Finance and Economic Affairs Ms. Hina Rabbani Khar, Provincial Ministers Syed Zahir Ali Shah and Rahimdad Khan, and the Commander Special Support Group.

Spokesperson of the President former Senator Farhatullah Babar said that the displaced students of professional colleges of Swat and Malakand will be given admission in professional institutions in other districts of the province.

Students of Malakand/Swat studying in other parts of the country will be exempted from payment of tuition fee while relief goods and equipment donated for the IDPs will be allowed duty free import.

PIA was directed to airlift relief goods free of cost and the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) asked to waive, one time only, the prescribed conditions for issuance of smart cards to enable displaced people benefit from it without hassle.

The BISP will now not require the internally displaced people to produce computerized identity cards nor insist on making payment to the female member of the family, as is required at present. This relaxation will however be allowed one time only.

The federal government would ensure that essential medicines are invariably available for the IDPs in the camps and off camps.

The meeting also decided to provide soft loans and defer repayment of loans from ADBP and House Building Finance Corporation.

NADRA was directed to increase its staff and registration units manifold and expeditiously issue smart cards to the displaced persons. Special training programmes will be launched by NAVTEC to train people in trades and enable them to take up gainful employment on return.

Addressing the meeting the President said that the internally displaced people had made huge sacrifices for the survival of the country and the government will do everything possible to rehabilitate them.

He said that during his visit abroad he took up the issue forcefully with the leaders of the countries who had assured to provide all necessary help.

The President said that he will shortly meet members and organizations of national and international business communities to adopt villages for rehabilitation and reconstruction on voluntary basis, the Spokesperson said.

The President also directed that the registration of displaced persons and distribution of cash, food and relief goods must be done in an absolutely transparent manner.

The President said that defeat for the government was no option. "We must win the fight; we will" he said.

He said that the government had urged the international community for greater assistance and that he would be going to the EU Summit next month to seek greater international support.

The President said that with international support and marshalling our own resources Pakistan will soon be able to overcome the difficult situation.

The Prime Minister speaking on the occasion said that the war against militants was fully backed by the people and the Parliament, political parties, the Cabinet and religious leaders all were on board along with the security forces.

He said that military solution however was not the final solution and the government had also adopted a 3R approach aimed at Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction.

Earlier the meeting was briefed by the Frontier Chief Secretary and Commander of the Special Support Group.

 

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Over 2.5 million displaced in Malakand: Iftikhar ​

PESHAWAR (May 20, 2009): The number of internally displaced persons IDPs has crossed 2.5 million figure, Mian Iftikhar, provincial minister for information, said on Wednesday.

Briefing media here, he said the ongoing operation would continue till the areas are cleansed from miscreants.

Iftikhar said the number of people fleeing from the affected areas has reached 25,28,370, which is the highest figure of IDPs in the world. He called on the world aid agencies to contribute generously for the rehabilitation of displaced families.

He said some 90 registration centres have been set up for the displaced persons, where 15 to 20 registration counters were in full swing.

Regarding Bajaur and Mohmand Agency, he said displaced people from these areas have started returning to home and so far, up to 3,264 families have returned.

The number of Humanitarian hub for the affected persons has been increased from 13 to 18, he said, adding that arrangements have been made to set up eight more such points in Peshawar, Mardan and Swabi.

The minister said around 30 to 35 percent people were still under siege in the affected areas, and efforts were underway to evacuate them safely.

He said security forces have strengthened their position in Sultanwas area of Buner, while people were still stranded in the Chakdara area of Dir.

 

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Government urged to distribute two million tons of wheat and flour among IDPs​

ISLAMABAD (May 19 2009): The private sector stakeholders on Monday proposed the government to distribute up to 2 million tons of wheat and flour among the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and aid to Afghanistan rather allowing its export.

"Government should distribute 1.5 million to 2 million tons wheat and flour amongst the IDPs through the United Nation (UN) and aid to Afghanistan against funds from the USA, Britain, EU and other friendly countries under World Food Programme (WFP)," said one of the stakeholders.

This is first time in history of Pakistan that the government took a decision in favour of farmers by increasing the Guaranteed Support Price (GSP) of wheat of Rs 950/- per 40-kg after which the country has produced bumper crop. "Now we hope that the government does not make a mistake of allowing export of wheat or wheat flour as this in today's world market will not be possible unless government subsidies so why do so," he argued.

Market players are also of the view that if the government decides against export, flour mills will run on 100 percent capacity and create local Jobs and also further improve the life style of farmers and encourage them to grow more wheat in next season.

If Pakistan continues to grow more wheat, it will become leading wheat importing country in future as Pakistan's quality of wheat is much superior to any country of the world. Market players further argued that If today government decides to export wheat, its price will be around $332- 340. It will not be competitive as neighbouring India which aims to export 2 million tons and their prices are lower. Australia, USA, EU, Canada and Black Sea all have good stocks and reasonable crops in prospect.

 

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Number of IDPs has surpassed 2.5 million: NWFP minister​

* Hussain says war on terror battle for survival of Pakistan
* Says 30-35 percent of Swat, Malakand division residents stranded in war zone​

PESHAWAR: The total number of internally displaced families has reached 344,143, NWFP Information Minister Iftikhar Hussain said on Wednesday, adding this meant there were over 2.5 million internally displaced persons (IDPs).

He told a press conference the number of relief camps would be increased by eight to cope with the influx of IDPs. He said the war on terror is not a war on Pushtoons, and is instead a battle for the survival of Pakistan that will continue until the terrorists are completely eradicated. Hussain said the provincial government had to care for a large number of IDPs, adding any administrative negligence would result in chaos. He said pedestal fans and water coolers were currently in great demand at the camps.

The minister expressed his gratitude for the help from Sindh, Balochistan and especially Punjab, adding the Punjab government had also assured more support in future. He said 14 trucks loaded with edibles had been donated by the Punjab government, adding the provincial government had requested 25,000 tents, 11,541 stoves and 162,543 water coolers.

Still stuck: He said the IDPs from Malakand division were being given priority, adding barbed wire fences had been erected to restrict the movement of people from outside the camp. He praised the services of officers working at the camps. However, he added, negligent officers would be punished and cited the sacking of the Charsadda Relief Camp in-charge. He said 30 to 35 percent of Swat and Malakand division residents were still stranded in the war zone.

Commenting on the relief efforts, the NWFP minister said the provincial government had already received containers of aid from UAE President Sheikh Khalifa Bin Nahyan, and urged that the $110 million assistance announced by the US should not be delayed. He said the Muslim Commercial Bank had opened information counters in all camps.

 

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Donors pledge $244 million for IDPs ​

ISLAMABAD (May 21, 2009): International donors on Thursday pledged US 244 million dollars for relief and rehabilitation of the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) following the military operation in parts of NWFP to eliminate extremists and terrorists.

Minister of State for Economic Affairs Division Hina Rabbani Khar said the $244 includes $110 announced by the United States of America for the around two million displaced people.

She said the United Nations will launch a flash appeal on Friday in a bid to raise from 500 to 600 million dollars for the IDPs.

The meeting of international donors chaired by Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani expressed full solidarity and support to the government in its efforts to fight militancy.

The minister said the amount pledged would be utilized for relief and reconstruction of activities through the United Nations and International Committee of Red Cross.

Hin Rabbani Khar termed the response of the donors as "very good" and said Pakistan presented donors the political strategy devised to deal with the humanitarian crisis.

"We are pursuing a three-pronged strategy of relief, return and rehabilitation and got good response as many donors understand that relief is just the beginning and have pledged support for their rehabilitation."

Earlier Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani urged the international and local donors to help the government in the effective rehabilitation of IDPs.

In his opening remarks at the Donors Conference the Prime Minister said the government was cognizant of the problems being faced by the displaced persons and was taking steps for their rehabilitation on warfooting.

Gilani assured full security to the international aid workers working in the affected areas and the relief camps.

He said the government would direct Navtec to provide technical training to the young in the camps so that they do not waste their time.

Prime Minister Gilani said the quantum of IDPs's influx required massive resources and the government had to seek more assistance from the international community.

"Taking care of IDPs is the government's foremost responsibility. There is also an urgent need for a comprehensive response towards fighting the issue of terrorism," he said.

He said Pakistan was currently confronted with the menace of terrorism and extremism and expressed the resolve for its complete eradication to ensure the country's development.

He said the whole nation was supportive of the government's steps being taken to curb terrorism and mentioned that the recent All Parties Conference also concluded with a note to back the government's efforts for ensuring peace.

Gilani said the uplift of IDPs would not only enable them to make a positive contribution to the development of, but also help in ensuring that the militants do not exploit the vulnerability of the displaced population.

He termed peace and development as inter-dependable, adding that without peace, a sustainable and enduring development could not be take place.

"We have to win the hearts and minds of the people. We need to do something concrete and visible on priority basis for the people of area," he said.

The Prime Minister said a special fund for the relief of terror victims had been set up, while the government had already allocated over Rs. two billion to the NWFP Government for support in the management of IDPs.

He said relief work would be carried out by various agencies and each family displaced from Malakand division would get a grant of Rs 25,000.

The Prime Minister said the government had adopted a three R - relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction - approach to mitigate the sufferings of IDPs, and mentioned setting up a Special Support Group in this regard.

He said the United Nations was looking after the relief phase, whereas for rehabilitation stage, the World Bank was preparing to undertake a post-conflict assessment study, whose results would be shared with the donors.

Gilani said given the magnitude of the IDPs' issue, the government would keep a continuous vigil of the situation. He said State Minister for Economic Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar would be the focal person in dealing with the donors while Information Minister Qamar Zaman Kaira would brief the media on the activities of Special Support Group.

He said the government looks forwards towards the donors for a positive social and economic dislocation and the untold sufferings of IDPs.

Adviser on Finance Shaukat Tarin termed the rehabilitation of the IDPs a monumental challenge as they were in the front line in the fight against militancy.

He assured that transparency and efficiency in distribution of funds would be ensured and development would be the top priority to win the hearts and minds of the Reuters

Interior Minister Rehman Malik, Minister for Information Qamar Zaman Kaira, State Minister for Economic Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, PM's Advisor on Finance Shaukat Tarin and international donors attended the conference.

 

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U.N. seeks $543M for Pakistan war refugees​

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The United Nations is appealing for $543 million to ease what it describes as the "incredible suffering" of refugees from Pakistan's war against Taliban militants.
The U.N. launched the appeal Friday in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.

Martin Mogwanja, a U.N. official coordinating the humanitarian effort, said the size and speed of the displacement was extraordinary and had caused great suffering.

Pakistani officials say they have registered about 1.9 million people fleeing the fighting in the Swat Valley area since security forces launched an offensive last month.

FIND MORE STORIES IN: United States | al-Qaeda | United Nations | Pakistan | Islamabad | Swat | Poole | Syed Yousaf Raza Gillani
More than 160,000 are staying in sweltering camps just south of the battle zone; the rest have been taken in by relatives.

The United Nations has set up tent schools at the camps. At one on Thursday, teachers drilled dozens of kids sitting cross-legged on mats in numbers and letters before giving the pupils packets of biscuits as an incentive for them to return.

"Children have to continue to go to school," said Daniel Poole, regional director of the U.N.'s children fund after visiting the school. "It's what makes things feel normal again, even in this context that's so abnormal."

The army claims it has killed more than 1,000 militants and won back swaths of territory in the region, but it faces stiff resistance from up to 5,000 well-trained and equipped fighters and has ventured no prediction of when the Taliban will be defeated.

On Thursday, it said five soldiers and an unspecified number of Taliban were killed in battles in several parts of the valley during the previous 24 hours. Seven militants were captured, a military statement said. The account was impossible to verify because reporters have little access to the war zone.

In another part of the border region, a suicide bomber blew up his vehicle close to a paramilitary fort in the town of Jandola, killing four soldiers and four civilians, including three children, two intelligence officers said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

The government organized a donors conference attended by representatives of foreign countries and aid groups to raise money to look after the refugees from the region, which was popular with skiers and holiday makers before the Taliban took over, enforcing an ultra-hardline brand of Islamic law and beheading opponents.

"There is an urgent need for a joint and comprehensive response to this issue by all those who are committed to fighting terrorism," Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said. "Without peace there can be no sustainable development and without development the establishment of enduring peace is impossible."

Hina Rabbani Khar, a government official overseeing the relief effort, said Thursday that foreign donors had pledged $224 million to help the displaced. The total includes $110 million pledged Tuesday by the United States.

The Pakistan government, which is relying on foreign loans to keep the economy afloat, has said it will spend $100 million. Khar said the U.N. would issue an appeal for more funds on Friday.

The government launched the offensive last month after the militants violated a peace deal and advanced to a region within 60 miles (100 kilometers) of the capital, Islamabad.

The army operation has so far enjoyed broad public and political support, but analysts have warned that could ebb — as happened in early operations in the northwest — if the refugees are seen to be neglected.

U.S. officials are scrambling to help the pro-Western government manage the refugee crisis and encourage it to sustain and expand its military action to other areas of the border region where al-Qaeda and Taliban are holed out.

Rear Adm. Michael A. LeFever, the top U.S. military official at the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad, forecast Wednesday that between 200,000 and 250,000 will be living in refugee camps through the end of the year.

 

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Britain announces extra $15.9 million​

LONDON: Britain on Friday announced an extra £10 million (US $15.9 million) in aid to help huge numbers of people displaced by a military offensive in the Swat valley. The new money brings Britain’s contribution to £22 million, and will be distributed via UN agencies working in the affected areas, said British International Development Minister Douglas Alexander, AFP reported. Meanwhile, Germany’s assistance for the IDPs has reached Rs 2.4 billion, APP reported. agencies

 

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IDPs exceed 2.9m, NA committee told​

* 338,422 persons living in camps, 2,584,847 outside camps
* Interior Ministry joint secretary says Taliban making way into major cities​

ISLAMABAD: The government informed the National Assembly Standing Committee on Interior on Monday the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country had crossed 2.9 million, while the NA panel expressed dissatisfaction over the conditions available to the IDPs.

Chaired by Abdul Qadir Patel, the committee discussed issues pertaining to the IDPs, the registration procedure to assess the actual number of IDPs, and the steps being taken to ensure food, shelter and healthcare facilities for them. Interior Ministry Joint Secretary Shahidullah Beg said there are 26 relief camps, adding 338,422 persons are living in them, while 2,584,847 are residing outside of camps. He said deploying police and Frontier Constabulary (FC) had enhanced security at the camps. Eighty-six registration points have been established in Mardan, Swabi, Charsadda, Nowshera, Kohat and Peshawar, he added.

Taliban woes: Beg told the committee that Taliban fleeing from the conflict zone were reportedly making their way into major cities, which could create a serious law and order situation. He said the government would act against any banned religious organisations it found. In response, the committee unanimously recommended the government speed up the IDP registration process, and evolve a mechanism to distribute the Rs 25,000 in aid to each displaced family. They said registering the IDPs, providing them with a bank account, and then releasing the Rs 25,000, as planned by the Interior Ministry, would take too long. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) chairman also suggested that the cash be distributed among the IDPs as soon as possible.

The standing committee also directed the Interior Ministry to avoid restricting the movement of the IDPs to other provinces, saying it was their right to reside anywhere under the constitution. Bushra Gohar of the Awami National Party criticised the government for setting up a Special Support Group (SSG) to deal with the IDPs, saying a parallel body had been established by the NDMA. “The SSG will weaken the NDMA ... A military person should not head it,” she added.

Seek assistance: The committee recommended the Interior Ministry seek assistance from the NDMA to effectively help the IDPs, as the authority had experience in such matters. Former interior minister Aftab Sherpao stressed the need to involve local nazims in the registration process to make it more authentic and quick.

 

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COMMENT: Just the beginning —Shaukat Qadir

The political government must move swiftly to rehabilitate the IDPs at the earliest possible, rebuild all required facilities, provide a local civilian administration and improve socio-economic conditions to win the war for hearts and minds

It does seem that, finally, the Asif Zardari-led government has found the courage to stand up to the threat that was beginning to surround Pakistan. However, this is only the beginning of the first battle; there is a long way to go if we are to win the war.

To begin with, the military can never win this war, or any other for that matter, by itself; but least of all can it win a war against its own citizens. All it can do is to create an environment for the political government to bargain from a position of strength. It is up to the political government to use that space and the opportunity provided by the military to find a lasting solution. After all, this war is solely about winning the hearts and minds of the people!

Although I numbered among the minority that opposed the Swat peace deal, it appears to have had an upside to it as well. On the one hand, it silenced most critics of the military option and, on the other, it appears to have convinced the local population — which, while opposed to Taliban rule, was becoming reconciled to it in the belief that no other option was left — of the fact that any other option is better than the Taliban.

A vast majority of the people displaced by the military operations have stated unequivocally that they are prepared for any sacrifice if their valley is finally rid of the Taliban. However, if the Pakistani nation, supported by the international community, fails to look after them, and the military action becomes prolonged, these sentiments might undergo a not very surprising change. Already, apprehensive of militants entering camps intended for the IDPs, the special cell created for them is taking five to seven days to ‘clear’ families before allowing them to enter the camps.

In an earlier piece, I had likened the movements of the various chapters of the Pakistani Taliban as a ‘multiple pincers movement’. Faced with such a move, any military begins delaying operations against the other branches of the pincers, while eliminating one. Quite obviously, the opponents attempt to use this opportunity to accelerate the other branch(es) of their operation so as to avoid being dealt with piecemeal.

Thus far, the Pakistan Army appears to have been the more successful of the two opponents. The army also began its operations on May 8 in a tactically sound manner: surrounding Swat from different directions, it first cleared all the areas surrounding Swat, which the Taliban had occupied within a span of ten days, before moving into the Swat valley from all accesses to it. Massive use of air power preceded their entry, but it was confined to known militant strongholds so as to minimise collateral damage. This is the first operation by any military on either side of the Durand Line that has confirmed the killing of a number of acknowledged ‘high value’ targets.

Hemmed in from all sides and pounded from the air, the Taliban now sought refuge in the town of Mingora. It is at this stage that military operations slowed down, as was to be expected. Mingora is a town where the army will have to conduct urban guerrilla warfare, a far more difficult task than in rural areas, particularly since in many areas, the militants were well entrenched in well constructed residential areas.

Surprisingly, however, most of Mingora has fallen very quickly, probably because the local population is supporting the military operations. In fact, according to my unofficial sources, Fazlullah is dead. This contention is given some credence by the fact that his spokesman, Muslim Khan, has called upon their Taliban not to contest the military in Mingora.

However, the military operation is only going to lead to a political success if a permanent military presence is established in each recaptured region, strong enough to reassure the locals and prevent a return of the Taliban.

The political government must also move swiftly to rehabilitate the IDPs at the earliest possible, rebuild all required facilities, provide a local civilian administration and improve socio-economic conditions to win the war for hearts and minds. Time is of the essence. I have expressed my concerns regarding the methodology of the reconstruction effort, which must, in the words of Sun Tzu, “flow along the path of least resistance until it becomes an inexorable force before which no boulder, however strong, can withstand”.

Militarily too, Swat is only a beginning. Unless all other areas under control of the other chapters of the Taliban are similarly dealt with, the war will never be won. In each case, the socio-political vacuum will have to be filled in accordance with the wishes of the people as soon as the military operation succeeds, followed by a socio-economic restructuring of the region.

The US, the CIA (which I believe to be the only real rogue intelligence agency), Israel and India, whichever of them is active in the region, will have to be persuaded to give the Pakistani government and its military the much needed time necessary for success. And finally, the US will have to begin to succeed doing the same in Afghanistan, else our western borders will need permanent protection.

This article is a modified version of one originally written for the daily National. The author is a retired brigadier. He is also former vice president and founder of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)