IAF fighter strength to dip further

[Abingdonboy]

Yup, so even if you push them that far, and assuming little attrition losses, you'll need to replace 200+ of these as well by then, and they would be on their last legs.

MMRCA is going to replace Migs, FGFA we don't know when they will be available, so numbers would be same or less by 2032. Unless another 200 jets are procured.

FGFA will be available in 2022-4, LCA Mk.2 will be available from 2020 and is likely to see higher orders and a ramp up in production.


There's no need to be overly alarmist about this, 1 Rafale or MKI is equal to 4-5+ MiG-21/27 so even if, momentarily, the IAF's SQD levels dip the overall capability of the force will be expanding many fold to make it easily one of the most deadly airforces anywhere in the world. 2022-5 will see such a dip on overall SQD levels as the MiG-21s, MiG-27s and older Jags get entirely phased out but from there on force levels will be increasing year on year as more and more Rafales,MKIs, FGFAs and LCAs come into the force.

To see this as a numbers game only is incredibly naive.

 

[Donatello]

FGFA will be available in 2022-4, LCA Mk.2 will be available from 2020 and is likely to see higher orders and a ramp up in production.


There's no need to be overly alarmist about this, 1 Rafale or MKI is equal to 4-5+ MiG-21/27 so even if, momentarily, the IAF's SQD levels dip the overall capability of the force will be expanding many fold to make it easily one of the most deadly airforces anywhere in the world. 2022-5 will see such a dip on overall SQD levels as the MiG-21s, MiG-27s and older Jags get entirely phased out but from there on force levels will be increasing year on year as more and more Rafales,MKIs, FGFAs and LCAs come into the force.

To see this as a numbers game only is incredibly naive.

it is naive, but then so are your quoted timelines. Given India's notorious past in procurement, i am not sure what to believe, but rather wait and see what happens. Rafale is not yet signed, and the total complete time for the 126 jets is what? 8-10 years? Then you are counting on a plane that doesn't even have a prototype flying. Plus, since it's rumored to be 5th gen, you haven't seen the problems that will come with it. Compare the F-22 program (despite USAF and it's contractors having over 30 years of experience in designing the best) or your own LCA, which still isn't fully ready.

So all i am saying is, that pushing numbers beyond 700 around 2032 is unrealistic, unless something is done today.

 

[The Headache]

If the Russians will not provide FGFA on time, I swear to god I will kill them all.

 

[nomi007]

HAL is actually responsible for this
not completing work at time

 

[arp2041]

But in 2032, with all new inductions into the Indian Air Force having already been completed, and with the retirement of six Jaguar IS/IM squadrons, three squadrons of the Mirage 2000 H/I and three squadrons of the MiG-29 B/UPG, it will see face an even higher shortfall of 14 squadrons and be left with only 28 squadrons.

To take a word from @Skull and Bones - LOLWA at these PROJECTIONS.

Looks like they are coming up with nos. from thin air.

So after all LCA/MMRCA/FGFA will be inducted, IAF will put a FULL STOP at further inductions to make this projection true.

 

[sathya]

Well , bad for them, all tenders are going in private hands..

 

[The_Sidewinder]

@Gandhiv
mate u have nicely analysed everything. Even I think the article is over exegurated. Any modern airforce will be happy with 300 top notch 4++ aircraft by 2030. Only because India has PAF & PLAAF as adverseries we eat so much into numbers.

@Donatello
Sir, good to see you back to your usual best. You are one of my favourite TTA analyst with troll mode off.

 

[Donatello]

@Gandhiv
mate u have nicely analysed everything. Even I think the article is over exegurated. Any modern airforce will be happy with 300 top notch 4++ aircraft by 2030. Only because India has PAF & PLAAF as adverseries we eat so much into numbers.

@Donatello
Sir, good to see you back to your usual best. You are one of my favourite TTA analyst with troll mode off.

300 Aircraft is too less for India, even if there is no border control and there is free trade amongst India/Pakistan/China, 300 is a very inadequate number. The reason is, you may not need them, but you must have enough men and capacity, in case it is needed. Think about France/Germany/UK/Spain/Italy, they are not going to fight wars with themselves, yet they maintain a decent sized airforce/navy/army, because military is something that is an insurance policy.

For the forseeable future, China will remain ahead of India, and as such India needs number and quality to face that. Pakistan, we don't know, but by 2020, PAF is looking at a 300 aircraft fleet with most being BVR capable.

 

[Mike_Brando]

300 Aircraft is too less for India, even if there is no border control and there is free trade amongst India/Pakistan/China, 300 is a very inadequate number. The reason is, you may not need them, but you must have enough men and capacity, in case it is needed. Think about France/Germany/UK/Spain/Italy, they are not going to fight wars with themselves, yet they maintain a decent sized airforce/navy/army, because military is something that is an insurance policy.

For the forseeable future, China will remain ahead of India, and as such India needs number and quality to face that. Pakistan, we don't know, but by 2020, PAF is looking at a 300 aircraft fleet with most being BVR capable.

Well who knows the I.A.F. may well end up buying around 200 or so Mig-35s in the near future apart from the current MMRCA order given their longstanding love/fetish for the Soviet/Russian aircrafts.In fact some Defense analysts have already predicted that the IAF might end up buying a substantial no. of Mig-35s in the forseeable future as they have got plenty of experience dealing with the Mig series of aircraft plus even after buying the Rafales the I.A.F. will still need at least 200 4th generation aircraft to replace all those old Mig-21bis/bison models which will retire by 2020 and if the induction of the LCA MK-II doesn't go according to the plan then there is a substantial chance that the I.A.F. will definitely go for the Mig-35 as it is currently the cheapest among all the 4.5 generation aircraft in the international market to increase their squadron strength to at least 42 by 2025.

 

[Abingdonboy]

it is naive, but then so are your quoted timelines. Given India's notorious past in procurement, i am not sure what to believe,

Other than having a jab at India's stringent procurement process what point are you trying to make? The Rafale deal is in the final stages and the issues with the LCA and FGFA have nothing to do with India's defence procurement policy.

There are no other procurements pending.

Rafale is not yet signed, and the total complete time for the 126 jets is what? 8-10 years?

It will be signed within the next few months that much is clear, first deliveries will be made in 2017. And the entire 126 will be in service in 7 years as per the original RFP. Let's not forget there is an option for an atonal 63 Rafales in the contract and this will likely be taken up.

Compare the F-22 program (despite USAF and it's contractors having over 30 years of experience in designing the best) or your own LCA, which still isn't fully ready.

LCA is almost there, it will be in Squadron service by next year and the Mk.2 will be with the IAF by 2019/20.

So all i am saying is, that pushing numbers beyond 700 around 2032 is unrealistic, unless something is done today.

Nothing else needs to be done today, it is all in hand.

 

[Archie]

I find it hard for Mirage 2000s, Mig 29s and Jaguars to last another 17-18 years.

actually all 3 are currently undergoing MLU which is expected to add 15 yrs to Mig29 and Jaguars while Mirage could last another 20 yrs

 

[Abingdonboy]

and as such India needs number and quality to face that.

And what do you think the IAF is doing? Sitting on their hands? The LCA Mk.2, MKI (Super), Rafale and FGFA are all beasts to be reckoned with in their own respective classes.

Think about France/Germany/UK/Spain/Italy, they are not going to fight wars with themselves, yet they maintain a decent sized airforce/navy/army, because military is something that is an insurance policy.

Other than France, all these European nations are growing increasingly into toothless tigers- Germany and Spain are struggling to have more than 10 operational EFTs at anyone time right now.

actually all 3 are currently undergoing MLU which is expected to add 15 yrs to Mig29 and Jaguars while Mirage could last another 20 yrs

10-15 additional years for making them Mirage 2000-5 Mk.2, MiG-29UPG and Jaguar DARIN III (with F125 re-engining) at most, the former ACM said as much himself. They will see it to 2030 but that's it.

Well who knows the I.A.F. may well end up buying around 200 or so Mig-35s in the near future apart from the current MMRCA order given their longstanding love/fetish for the Soviet/Russian aircrafts.In fact some Defense analysts have already predicted that the IAF might end up buying a substantial no. of Mig-35s in the forseeable future as they have got plenty of experience dealing with the Mig series of aircraft plus even after buying the Rafales the I.A.F. will still need at least 200 4th generation aircraft to replace all those old Mig-21bis/bison models which will retire by 2020 and if the induction of the LCA MK-II doesn't go according to the plan then there is a substantial chance that the I.A.F. will definitely go for the Mig-35 as it is currently the cheapest among all the 4.5 generation aircraft in the international market to increase their squadron strength to at least 42 by 2025.

Not going to happen, this is fanboy talk bro. The IAF has absolutely NO interest in adding yet another fighter type to its inventory and especially not another Russian one. The Indian Mil has seriously fallen out of love with the Russian equipment thanks to its poor serviceability and pi$$ poor after sales support by the Ruskies and will only go to them for equipment no one else will provide (SSNs, 5th-gen fighter, ACCs etc).

The Rafale will be ordered and another 63 are all but assured on top of the initial 126, it is possible the IAF may go for orders above 189 but that remains to be seen.

 

[Archie]

people forget that India never orders all at once
the first Su30 order was for 50 aircrafts but we will end up inducting 270+ aircrafts by the time production ends

Rafale too has option for 63 additional Aircrafts
FGFA deal has options for 72 additional aircrafts
if the airforce faces shortage
these option will be excercised in 2025 itself

however I will agree that I dont see Jaguars , Mirages, Mig 29 in IAF beyond 2030-32

also people Need to realise who is in power in India

Modi is the most nationalist PM we have had after Indira Gandhi
he is unlikely to let the arm forces suffer
and if he remains in power for 10 yrs, then IAF will probably have 189 Rafales and 300+ Su30MKI in 2024

 

[k7x]

Future of manned fighter itself is a question..

Amca might be the last manned fighter of india

Future is ucav or UAV.

DRDO aura . we are good at automation, e.g Mangalyaan.

UAV can pull more g, longer endurance and can take more risky mission.

Indian private companies are slowly coming into picture.

 

[sancho]

Well well, the usual nonsense of our media and the usual ranting of some people, so lets look at some facts here:

Fighters phased out:

Mig 21 Bis - 2 sq's (till the end of 2017)
MiG-21 M/MF - 5 sq's (till the end of 2017)
Mig-27 ML - 3.5 sq's (till the end of 2017)
Mig-27 UPG - 2 sq's (till the end of 2017)

Mig-21 Bison - 6 sq's (till the end of 2025)
=> 18,5 sq's single role fighters


Added:

Su 30 MKI - 3 sq's (till the end of 2017)
LCA MK1 - 1 sq's (till the end of 2017)
M-MRCA - 1 sq's (till the end of 2017)

Super 30 - 2 sq's (till the end of 2019)
LCA MK1 - 1 sq's (till the end of 2019)
M-MRCA - 1sq's (till the end of 2019)

LCA MK2 - 4 sq's (till the end of 2025)
M-MRCA - 5 sq's (till the end of 2025)
FGFA - 2? sq's (till the end of 2025)
=>20 sq's multi role fighters


Phased out from 2032:

Mig-29 UPG - 3 sq's
Mirage 2000-5 - 3 sq's
Jaguar - 6 sq's
=> 12 sq's


Added till the end of 2032:

FGFA - 6 sq's (rest of the 144 order)
M-MRCA - 3 sq's? (optional 64)
LCA MK2 - X sq's? (depending on additional orders)
=> 6+ sq's

Total number of phased out sq's till 2032 => 18,5 sq's (all single role)
Total number of added sq's till 2032 => 26 to 30 sq's (all multi role)

IAF fleet by 2032:

FGFA - 8 sq's
Su 30 MKI - 15 sq's
M-MRCA - 7+ sq's
LCA - 8+ sq's
=> 38 sq's (not included additional M-MRCAs or LCAs that can be build till 2032) + armed Rustom H and Aura UCAVs for strike and surveillance roles.

Not to forget that we are not talking about 1 on 1 replacements here, since we mainly replace single role fighters, with multi role fighters. Which means that an IAF with the same ammount of fighters, will be twice as capable as in the past. Modern fighters can simply do more with less numbers and IAF has a high focus on balanced multi role capabilities of it's new fighters. That's why all this hype on reducing squad numbers is pointless. IAF will be more capable than before (multi role fighters, new weapons and techs, force multipliers), will have a far larger footprint all over the country than before (rasing several new air bases and sq's, adding more tankers) and will be much better suited for offensive roles if necessary (deepstrike role capable fighters and UAVs, long range missiles, special ops aircrafts).

IAF is certanly the last we have to worry about!