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I’d give it 18 months before all hell breaks loose

Those troops will be there in the economically important regions or areas only. Everywhere else, there will be lawlessness and sharia. i'm talking about after Karzai falls, before they will probably play charades with ANA in training hoping the treacherous bastards don't pull another green on blue.

That is the main problem nobody really knows what the ANAs main priorities are and if they are willing to actually fight. So far with ISAF backing ANA has seen nothing but success in its limited ops but what makes or breaks an army is how it reacts after losses. If the Taliban gain quick victories in succession there is high chance ANA will just disentegrate or join various different warlord factions like after the soviets left. Or worse even just join the Talibs and attack our troops....
 
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