Huff, puff, India will finally be a $2 trillion economy this year

[Wright]

India STILL haven't crossed $2 trillion?

Our fiscal revenues are at $2 trillion. Our economy is $8.2 trillion.
Our fiscal revenues alone are bigger than the ENTIRE Indian economy.

India is such a joke.

They are not competing with you guys, they are trying to compete with the US.

 

[Cyberian]

Good for India.

Out of curiosity, if the Indian GDP grows around 5% for let's say 20 years, will that be enough to end poverty in India or the GDP growth rate needs to be above 8, 9, or 10% per annum?

 

[Koovie]

Good for India.

Out of curiosity, if the Indian GDP grows around 5% for let's say 20 years, will that be enough to end poverty in India or the GDP growth rate needs to be above 8, 9, or 10% per annum?

The more growth, the more jobs can be created, thus the wealth will rise as well.

But there are poverty reduction measures as well. Indias anti poverty programs are the largest in the world and are lifting millions out of poverty each year already. With more growth, this rate wont necessarily grow as well because of the usual bureaucracy and corruption. Its not a problem of money, its more a problem of these curses in India.

 

[Matrixx]

India STILL haven't crossed $2 trillion?

Our fiscal revenues are at $2 trillion. Our economy is $8.2 trillion.
Our fiscal revenues alone are bigger than the ENTIRE Indian economy.

India is such a joke.

India took 6 years to grow from $1 trillion to $2 trillion... ...if you think it is a joke....then it is

 

[Abingdonboy]

Good for India.

Out of curiosity, if the Indian GDP grows around 5% for let's say 20 years, will that be enough to end poverty in India or the GDP growth rate needs to be above 8, 9, or 10% per annum?

The GoI is in track to meet the target of having single-digit poverty levels by 2022-4.


And 5% growth is far too low, FY2014-15 and beyone will see a return to 6-8% growth for India.

 

[Cyberian]

The more growth, the more jobs can be created, thus the wealth will rise as well.

But there are poverty reduction measures as well. Indias anti poverty programs are the largest in the world and are lifting millions out of poverty each year already. With more growth, this rate wont necessarily grow as well because of the usual bureaucracy and corruption. Its not a problem of money, its more a problem of these curses in India.

But will 5% GDP growth be enough considering large population size and the huge number of new born babies each year? If 5% is acceptable, then I can see India becoming a more prosperous nation in the 2020s. But if 5% is not enough against the large population increase then I can't see it comparing to China.

But overall this is a very positive news for India as there aren't many nations that have a $2 trillion economy.

I am thinking, this year India's economy is most likely to overtake that of Russia and Italy to become the 8th largest economy.

 

[Sashan]

But will 5% GDP growth be enough considering large population size and the huge number of new born babies each year? If 5% is acceptable, then I can see India becoming a more prosperous nation in the 2020s. But if 5% is not enough against the large population increase then I can't see it comparing to China.

But overall this is a very positive news for India as there aren't many nations that have a 2 trillion economy.

I am thinking, this year India's economy is most likely to overtake that of Russia and Italy to become the 8th largest economy.

Why are you hung up on 5% growth for the past 2 years and try to compare with China? If you do then here is the fact - China registered less than 5% growth in 1988 and 1989 and there was again a slowdown in 1997 -. So it is a temporary blip in the growth story unless Congress screws it up but they have realized they can't allow a slowdown with Chidambaram as Finance minister to bring in reforms and that is what is happening now.

 

[BRICS]

Most, if not all the poverty reduction schemes in India are not doing that well, they hardly make a dent because middle men and politicians loot.

 

[Sashan]

Most, if not all the poverty reduction schemes in India are not doing that well, they hardly make a dent because middle men and politicians loot.

The dent is happening inspite of all the lootings - World bank data is based on the previous few years numbers.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The GoI is in track to meet the target of having single-digit poverty levels by 2022-4.


And 5% growth is far too low, FY2014-15 and beyone will see a return to 6-8% growth for India.

Even a 1-2% difference in average growth rates can make a huge difference over time.

The law of compound interest.

 

[Cyberian]

Why are you hung up on 5% growth for the past 2 years and try to compare with China? If you do then here is the fact - China registered less than 5% growth in 1988 and 1989 and there was again a slowdown in 1997 -. So it is a temporary blip in the growth story unless Congress screws it up but they have realized they can't allow a slowdown with Chidambaram as Finance minister to bring in reforms and that is what is happening now.

I'm just trying to find out what is the minimum growth rate that India must have in order to overcome poverty. For example, in Pakistan I would say at least a bare minimum of 10% is required for ten years in a row. Anything less is not good enough.

Considering that Indian economy is now around $2 trillion, is 5% enough or does it still needs to be much higher?

 

[Koovie]

But will 5% GDP growth be enough considering large population size and the huge number of new born babies each year? If 5% is acceptable, then I can see India becoming a more prosperous nation in the 2020s. But if 5% is not enough against the large population increase then I can't see it comparing to China.

But overall this is a very positive news for India as there aren't many nations that have a 2 trillion economy.

I am thinking, this year India's economy is most likely to overtake that of Russia and Italy to become the 8th largest economy.

I think much depends on each state if we talk about poverty eradication. Each state has its own growth, development levet etc etc. This becomes especially evident if one looks at indicators like the HDI, literacy rate or poverty data of each state in India.


All in all, I think that we can eradicate most poverty till the 2030s. But anything can happen in 2 decades, so only God knows it.

India might overtake Russia this year, since I think that Russias growth was quite low, but India had inflation problems as well.
Italy will take some more time though.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Considering that Indian economy is now around $2 trillion, is 5% enough or does it still needs to be much higher?

A real growth rate of 5% translates to a nominal growth rate of around 11% (i.e. with inflation around 6%).

11% of 2 trillion is not bad at all, especially when it is compounded year after year.

Use the compound interest formula to estimate future GDP.

GDP*(1.xx^y) where xx is the nominal growth rate and y is the number of years.

 

[Ayush]

I'm just trying to find out what is the minimum growth rate that India must have in order to overcome poverty. For example, in Pakistan I would say at least a bare minimum of 10% is required for ten years in a row. Anything less is not good enough.

Considering that Indian economy is now around $2 trillion, is 5% enough or does it still needs to be much higher?

we want double digit growth...

 

[Sashan]

I'm just trying to find out what is the minimum growth rate that India must have in order to overcome poverty. For example, in Pakistan I would say at least a bare minimum of 10% is required for ten years in a row. Anything less is not good enough.

Considering that Indian economy is now around $2 trillion, is 5% enough or does it still needs to be much higher?

This graph will give you an idea with 8% and 5% growth - 5% is not enough but still the GDP will double in another 14 years. The growth rate may not be enough but considering the developed countries registering less than 3% growth, India will beat them in another 20 years even with 5% except China, US and Japan and maybe Germany.


YEAR 8% 5%
2013 2000 2000
2014 2160 2100
2015 2332.8 2205
2016 2519.424 2315.25
2017 2720.97792 2431.0125
2018 2938.656154 2552.563125
2019 3173.748646 2680.191281
2020 3427.648538 2814.200845
2021 3701.860421 2954.910888
2022 3998.009254 3102.656432
2023 4317.849995 3257.789254
2024 4663.277994 3420.678716
2025 5036.340234 3591.712652
2026 5439.247452 3771.298285
2027 5874.387249 3959.863199

I am not getting formatting right. But you get the concept.