How would a war on Iran start off?

[Falcon29]

I was always wondering, lets just apply this scenario and ignore the realities on the ground. If eventually a decision was made to attack Iran by Israel, how would it play out?

-Israel would launch an air attack presumably with Western intelligence help and active military support
-What will they strike? Civilian infrastructure? And how long would the strikes be?
-No ground invasion would occur for self explanatory reasons
-The US would be blamed by the Muslim world for sanctioning another Israeli attack against their people and the American people would face a reprisal due to our foreign policy of supporting Israeli wars.
-Where would Israel strike from?
-Would Iran mobilize and respond several hours later or will they calculate that the damage if insignificant is not worthy of a response and increase their nuclear activities?

...........

I just can't fathom that Israel would go at it alone, they'd rather have other people pay the price for them. Israel even if capable is not prepared for the aftermath but more importantly doesn't know what to expect. They may take lead in initial strikes but afterwards they wish to place the issue on western shoulders. Israel also doesn't have the capabilities the U.S. has, they're depending on America to once again fight their wars. Does anyone believe that after the Obama administration the US would take a conservative turn and serve Israeli interests while making if plunge into more debt?

So to me I really see this far ahead still, if it even happens. For Iran's response, I really don't know how they would respond, they don't have hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles that could reach Israel, some say they only have hundreds and even if they fire some I don't think they could prevent an Israeli attack. I believe Iran has to focus on American/Israeli interests in the region, if they can harm their interests to bring the war to an end that way then they'll succeed at getting the American people to resent fighting a war for Israel. Israel however will probably be protected unless Hezbollah takes action, this time Israel really needs to be taught a lesson to prevent future aggression. Is Iran really capable of delivering a blow?

The problem arises when the Western world is willing to do favors for Israel, so Israel knows it can get away with declaring war since the Western world will pay the price and not Israel. This policy of the West encourages Israel to feel its immune to law and can be very flexible in areas not even superpowers can be.

It really depends on how the Western world handles this situation, if it becomes a thing where they will fight another war for Israel against the middle eastern people then it's time for a drastic change in the region, all out war against western interests.

@Islam shall be the winner @rmi5 @Serpentine @haman10 @ResurgentIran @SinaG @JEskandari @DATIS

@mohsen

 

[Khan_patriot]

I was always wondering, lets just apply this scenario and ignore the realities on the ground. If eventually a decision was made to attack Iran by Israel, how would it play out?

-Israel would launch an air attack presumably with Western intelligence help and active military support
-What will they strike? Civilian infrastructure? And how long would the strikes be?
-No ground invasion would occur for self explanatory reasons
-The US would be blamed by the Muslim world for sanctioning another Israeli attack against their people and the American people would face a reprisal due to our foreign policy of supporting Israeli wars.
-Where would Israel strike from?
-Would Iran mobilize and respond several hours later or will they calculate that the damage if insignificant is not worthy of a response and increase their nuclear activities?

...........

I just can't fathom that Israel would go at it alone, they'd rather have other people pay the price for them. Israel even if capable is not prepared for the aftermath but more importantly doesn't know what to expect. They may take lead in initial strikes but afterwards they wish to place the issue on western shoulders. Israel also doesn't have the capabilities the U.S. has, they're depending on America to once again fight their wars. Does anyone believe that after the Obama administration the US would take a conservative turn and serve Israeli interests while making if plunge into more debt?

So to me I really see this far ahead still, if it even happens. For Iran's response, I really don't know how they would respond, they don't have hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles that could reach Israel, some say they only have hundreds and even if they fire some I don't think they could prevent an Israeli attack. I believe Iran has to focus on American/Israeli interests in the region, if they can harm their interests to bring the war to an end that way then they'll succeed at getting the American people to resent fighting a war for Israel. Israel however will probably be protected unless Hezbollah takes action, this time Israel really needs to be taught a lesson to prevent future aggression. Is Iran really capable of delivering a blow?

The problem arises when the Western world is willing to do favors for Israel, so Israel knows it can get away with declaring war since the Western world will pay the price and not Israel. This policy of the West encourages Israel to feel its immune to law and can be very flexible in areas not even superpowers can be.

It really depends on how the Western world handles this situation, if it becomes a thing where they will fight another war for Israel against the middle eastern people then it's time for a drastic change in the region, all out war against western interests.

An attack will probably not start out of the blue, there will be some provocations on both sides, assuming shit has hit the fan, Israel will first block the Arabian Sea, send in its superior aircraft and bomb the shit out of its targets, this will be followed by a missile bombardment, all hell will break loose, volleys upon volleys of warheads will crash into Iran's military infrastructure, this will continue for a few days probably (although the objective would have been achieved in a matter of hours), a ground invasion is highly unlikely without US support....

 

[Jf Thunder]

An attack will probably not start out of the blue, there will be some provocations on both sides, assuming shit has hit the fan, Israel will first block the Arabian Sea, send in its superior aircraft and bomb the shit out of its targets, this will be followed by a missile bombardment, all hell will break loose, volleys upon volleys of warheads will crash into Iran's military infrastructure, this will continue for a few days probably (although the objective would have been achieved in a matter of hours), a ground invasion is highly unlikely without US support....

wait, wouldnt Iran respond?

 

[Falcon29]

This is very good actually :

Could Israel go it alone on Iran? - Al Jazeera Blogs

Would Israel be able to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability? The Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, says all options are on the table. Strong words with only one real meaning - the military option.

Over the years I have spent many hours talking to defence analysts, pilots, government officials and experts in military strategy about what that military option might mean.

The Israeli Air Force does not have the capability to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities. Military officials and defence analysts have shown us that time and time again. Not even Israel's generals think it could be done. But that doesn't mean they can't mount some sort of offensive. But will they?

If Israel did attack, how would it get its planes to Iran? There are three routes the IAF could take.

1) Over Iraq. Iraq would find it difficult to stop Israeli aircraft.

2) Between Turkey and Syria then Turkey and Iraq, although it is unlikely Turkey would co-operate.

3) Over Saudi airspace. This is the wildcard. The Saudis are opposed to the warming of US and Iranian relations. But they will come in for huge criticism publicly at home if they allow Israel, with whom they have no official diplomatic contact, to use Saudi airspace. The Saudis could publicly condemn such an action while privately allowing it to happen.

In every scenario however IAF planes would need inflight refuelling. Most Iranian targets are 1500km away from Israel. That's a 3,000km round trip plus fuel for the operation and for contingency.

That's a massive operation in itself. According to publicly available data, IAF tankers would find it difficult to carry enough fuel for all the planes in the air as they only have eight to 10 refuelling aircraft.

There is an option of using an airbase in a neighbouring, friendly country. Azerbaijan has been mooted as one option. But according to one Iranian official I spoke to in Tehran in 2012 any landing of military aircraft in a neighbouring country would be spotted and therefore would alert Iranian defences.

So say the Israelis decide to attack. They refuel over the Mediterranean. They fly over Iraq, whose air defences and radar are no match for Israeli aircraft.

Israel would need to use GBU-28 bunker-busting bombs to destroy Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities. It has these weapons but they are, by their very nature, huge. Israel has only one aircraft system, the F15i, which can carry a bunker buster, and only one at a time.

Many targets. Not many planes.

In 1981 the Israelis hit and destroyed an Iraqi nuclear facility in a surgical strike. But that was a very different time, and a very different operation.

Hitting Iran's key targets would require sustained strikes over a period of time - perhaps weeks. And as soon as the first bomb hits the world would know very shortly afterwards.

Then there is the issue of Iranian air defence, in which the Iranians have invested heavily. According to the widely respected website AUSPower.net, the current anti-aircraft systems are robust and, with a mooted upgrade to the superior Russian S300, will become even stronger.

With a sustained attack, it is likely some of those IAF planes would get shot down. This presents Israel with an issue - what happens when the first downed IAF pilot appears on Iranian television? The Israeli military prides itself on its "no man left behind" policy.

As the twisted wreckage of IAF planes fills the world's screens, what does Israel do next? That's an unknown, I hazard a guess even for Israel. Certainly no one I have ever spoken to has been confident enough to tell me what options Israel might have then.

From the first strike, international outcry and condemnation of Israel would be swift. But Iran's nuclear programme would not be degraded. It's reactors would likely still be operating.

So Netanyahu finds himself in a position where one strike hasn't change anything, Iran has prisoners, and Israel is now number one bad guy in the world.

Chain reaction

And how does Iran react? It has been developing missiles for years. A barrage against Israeli targets is within its capability. The country's hawks would be screaming for revenge and it is unlikely the leadership would sit back.

It also has the option of using proxies. Enter Hezbollah and Hamas. Then the IDF is fighting once more in Arab lands. How do you think that plays out?

And then there is blowback. Any Israeli aggression will further motivate Iran to develop nuclear weapons. After all, it has been hit despite trying to convince the world it was not making nuclear weapons. So why not just go ahead and make weapons? Israel has just made it clear they are a target either way - better to have nukes and not need them, than not have them and need them. It's a philosophy that's has worked for Pakistan and India.

This is all quite apart from the massive protests that will be unleashed by anyone who can write on a placard in the Arab and Muslim world. Despite Iran being a majority Shia country, an attack by Israel would also spur on groups who want to attack states or populations they feel are pro-US or pro-Israel.

................

 

[mohsen]

Israel is a barking dag and would never bite. that's it.
yet let think they went nuts enough to bite, our answer is what our leader said, we will raze the Telaviv and Haifa, if they attack on our nuclear facilities, we would do the same thing too.
but seriously a regime who can't even stand against Hamas in Gaza strip (which is just a few kilometers) wants to attack Iran?

 

[rmi5]

@Hazzy997
I don't think that they attack on their own alone. I even doubt it if they participate if US wants to do the attack.
BTW, I don't think that attack goes beyond attacking nuclear facilities.

 

[Falcon29]

wait, wouldnt Iran respond?

Israel is stupid, remember during desert storm the US had to bring its missile defense systems into Israel since Israel couldn't defend itself. We have given them over $100 billion in military assistance and they can't even stop Palestinians in Gaza from responding with rockets. Israel rather spend the money on illegal expansionism. Same thing here, they will beg the US to help them during the aftermath since they cannot withstand war let alone skirmishes with Hezbollah.

@Hazzy997
I don't think that they attack on their own alone. I even doubt it if they participate if US wants to do the attack.
BTW, I don't think that attack goes beyond attacking nuclear facilities.

I agree with you, they'd rather fight Iran to the last American. Most Americans I tell you today with confidence are done with fighting Israel's wars. So take it as it is, the American people will not accept it anymore. So I say expect a scenario where Israel does attack with intelligence support and material support from the West.

Now, this is the question, if they only attack nuclear facilities, how long could they delay the program? If they can't delay the program then Israel would need to make it appear as a victory so will they attack civilian infrastructure to give that impression? Same thing they did in Gaza, they couldn't stop Hamas so they resorted to attacking civilian infrastructure so either way the war has to end because they can't militarily defeat Hamas, they could only defeat Gaza and send it into a crisis. That's what they said they'd do with Lebanon, they know Hezbollah can't be stopped so they rely on destroying civilian infrastructure and mass casualties to bring the war to an end.

So what would follow if they don't do much damage?

Israel is a barking dag and would never bite. that's it.
yet let think they went nuts enough to bite, our answer is what our leader said, we will raze the Telaviv and Haifa, if they attack on our nuclear facilities, we would do the same thing too.
but seriously a regime who can't even stand against Hamas in Gaza strip (which is just a few kilometers) wants to attack Iran?

It doesn't sound realistic, although we forget about their ballistic missiles and submarines, I guarantee you they would fire missiles from the Seas. This is the problem here, an air attack they really can't conduct efficiently unless they go through Iraq, which maybe they can? I think they really could go through Syria and Iraq so something needs to be done.

 

[Khan_patriot]

wait, wouldnt Iran respond?

Ofcourse it would, some of its missile payload would fall short of its target and crash into Muslims countries and the rest that would actually make it to Israel would be intercepted by the missile defence and very few would hit Israeli soil and even fewer would hit the intended target.....
I hate to bash Iran, but that the truth and this is what it has come to....
The naval blockade would ensure that no Irani ship reaches the Israeli shore....
All in all it will be a one side fight, realistically the IDF will come on top....

 

[!eon]

Forget all scenarios
Neither Israel nor Uncle Sam is going for Iran

 

[rmi5]

I agree with you, they'd rather fight Iran to the last American. Most Americans I tell you today with confidence are done with fighting Israel's wars. So take it as it is, the American people will not accept it anymore. So I say expect a scenario where Israel does attack with intelligence support and material support from the West.

Now, this is the question, if they only attack nuclear facilities, how long could they delay the program? If they can't delay the program then Israel would need to make it appear as a victory so will they attack civilian infrastructure to give that impression? Same thing they did in Gaza, they couldn't stop Hamas so they resorted to attacking civilian infrastructure so either way the war has to end because they can't militarily defeat Hamas, they could only defeat Gaza and send it into a crisis. That's what they said they'd do with Lebanon, they know Hezbollah can't be stopped so they rely on destroying civilian infrastructure and mass casualties to bring the war to an end.

So what would follow if they don't do much damage?



It doesn't sound realistic, although we forget about their ballistic missiles and submarines, I guarantee you they would fire missiles from the Seas. This is the problem here, an air attack they really can't conduct efficiently unless they go through Iraq, which maybe they can? I think they really could go through Syria and Iraq so something needs to be done.

If they attack nuclear facilities, Natanz facilities would be destroted, but Fordo would not be hurt at all. Then mullahs would move their IR2 centrifuges to Fordo,(actually they are already there) and make the bomb in 2-3 months, and then expand their facilities by testing and using IR3 centrifuges. The world would also feel sympathy with mullahs.
depending on the damage, and extent of the attack, mullahs may not even respond in full scale at all.

 

[Falcon29]

If they attack nuclear facilities, Natanz facilities would be destroted, but Fordo would not be hurt at all. Then mullahs would move their IR2 centrifuges to Fordo, and make the bomb in 2-3 months, and then expand their facilities by testing and using IR3 centrifuges. The world would also feel sympathy with mullahs.
depending on the damage, and extent of the attack, mullahs may not even respond in full scale at all.

That's what I was saying, they probably won't respond at all although I don't think you can weaponize in 2 months and one weapon won't change anything. Don't you think so?

 

[rmi5]

That's what I was saying, they probably won't respond at all although I don't think you can weaponize in 2 months and one weapon won't change anything. Don't you think so?

technically, they can enrich that amount of Uranium for 1 bomb with their IR2 centrifuges in less than 2 months. Anyway, I doubt it if they stop making bomb after the first one. Anyway, even 1 bomb is very dangerous, because they can use it as a "dirty bomb".

 

[Falcon29]

technically, they can enrich that amount of Uranium for 1 bomb with their IR2 centrifuges in less than 2 months. Anyway, I doubt it if they stop making bomb after the first one. Anyway, even 1 bomb is very dangerous, because they can use it as a "dirty bomb".

So are we coming to the conclusion that Israel could only slightly delay some aspects of the nuclear program and that Iran can't really respond effectively? I want to know if Iran is militarily capable of exacting a price on Israel.

 

[Defender pk]

I was always wondering, lets just apply this scenario and ignore the realities on the ground. If eventually a decision was made to attack Iran by Israel, how would it play out?

-Israel would launch an air attack presumably with Western intelligence help and active military support
-What will they strike? Civilian infrastructure? And how long would the strikes be?
-No ground invasion would occur for self explanatory reasons
-The US would be blamed by the Muslim world for sanctioning another Israeli attack against their people and the American people would face a reprisal due to our foreign policy of supporting Israeli wars.
-Where would Israel strike from?
-Would Iran mobilize and respond several hours later or will they calculate that the damage if insignificant is not worthy of a response and increase their nuclear activities?

...........

I just can't fathom that Israel would go at it alone, they'd rather have other people pay the price for them. Israel even if capable is not prepared for the aftermath but more importantly doesn't know what to expect. They may take lead in initial strikes but afterwards they wish to place the issue on western shoulders. Israel also doesn't have the capabilities the U.S. has, they're depending on America to once again fight their wars. Does anyone believe that after the Obama administration the US would take a conservative turn and serve Israeli interests while making if plunge into more debt?

So to me I really see this far ahead still, if it even happens. For Iran's response, I really don't know how they would respond, they don't have hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles that could reach Israel, some say they only have hundreds and even if they fire some I don't think they could prevent an Israeli attack. I believe Iran has to focus on American/Israeli interests in the region, if they can harm their interests to bring the war to an end that way then they'll succeed at getting the American people to resent fighting a war for Israel. Israel however will probably be protected unless Hezbollah takes action, this time Israel really needs to be taught a lesson to prevent future aggression. Is Iran really capable of delivering a blow?

The problem arises when the Western world is willing to do favors for Israel, so Israel knows it can get away with declaring war since the Western world will pay the price and not Israel. This policy of the West encourages Israel to feel its immune to law and can be very flexible in areas not even superpowers can be.

It really depends on how the Western world handles this situation, if it becomes a thing where they will fight another war for Israel against the middle eastern people then it's time for a drastic change in the region, all out war against western interests.

@Islam shall be the winner @rmi5 @Serpentine @haman10 @ResurgentIran @SinaG @JEskandari @DATIS

@mohsen

i think israel should keep in mind that iran is not that one country which they see in 80's but iran is becoming an emerging nuclear power very soon and most powerful than that of 80's and also one of the most unite nation of the world

 

[Falcon29]

i think israel should keep in mind that iran is not that one country which they see in 80's but iran is becoming an emerging nuclear power very soon and most powerful than that of 80's and also one of the most unite nation of the world

The problem is, if Israel doesn't feel it will face a painful reprisal these attacks will carry through the future, especially against the Palestinians. Israelis support war against neighboring nations because they feel safe while neighbors get attacked. So if Iran can't deliver a blow in retaliation then this Cold War between them will continue and unconditional western support to Israel only encourages it to be aggressive. The only time Israelis ever regretted expansionism and war against the occupied Palestinian people was during the times of suicide bombing it was very effective and made them regret the day they ever supported an occupation. If Israelis don't feel a danger to them their government will capitalize on that and further dedicate their assets to the occupation of Palestine. If they see a real threat they would stand against a unilateral attack against Iran.