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How to Prevent a War in Asia
The Erosion of American Deterrence Raises the Risk of Chinese Miscalculation
By Michèle A. Flournoy
June 18, 2020
A U.S. Navy aircraft carrier during an exercise in the Philippine Sea, April 2017
Amid all the uncertainty about the world that will follow the pandemic, one thing is almost sure to be true: tensions between the United States and China will be even sharper than they were before the coronavirus outbreak. The resurgence of U.S.-Chinese competition poses a host of challenges for policymakers—related to trade and economics, technology, global influence, and more—but none is more consequential than reducing the risk of war. Unfortunately, thanks to today’s uniquely dangerous mix of growing Chinese assertiveness and military strength and eroding U.S. deterrence, that risk is higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.
Something is going on
The Erosion of American Deterrence Raises the Risk of Chinese Miscalculation
By Michèle A. Flournoy
June 18, 2020
A U.S. Navy aircraft carrier during an exercise in the Philippine Sea, April 2017
Amid all the uncertainty about the world that will follow the pandemic, one thing is almost sure to be true: tensions between the United States and China will be even sharper than they were before the coronavirus outbreak. The resurgence of U.S.-Chinese competition poses a host of challenges for policymakers—related to trade and economics, technology, global influence, and more—but none is more consequential than reducing the risk of war. Unfortunately, thanks to today’s uniquely dangerous mix of growing Chinese assertiveness and military strength and eroding U.S. deterrence, that risk is higher than it has been for decades, and it is growing.
How to Prevent a War in Asia
The erosion of American deterrence raises the risk of Chinese miscalculation.
www.foreignaffairs.com
Something is going on
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