Pakistan's relations with China have not been the same since the PPP government came to power, Pakistan have mismanaged the single most important relationship they have - Primarily because they have misread the Chinese, how did this come about?
Capital suggestion
Peking Man
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Dr Farrukh Saleem
"The Gwadar Port Project does not make much sense for China", says Professor Zha Daojiong, China's premier energy expert and a leading light at Peking University's School of International Studies. According to Dr Yang Jiemian, president of the prestigious and influential Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, China's Pakistan-policy is under active review.
I am indebted to Heinrich-Boll-Stiftung, Beijing office, for sponsoring my interactions with Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, Department of South Asia Studies, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, Peking University's Women's Law Studies and Transition Institute. According to my colleague, Imtiaz Gul, the "China myth now stands demystified".
The 'Peking Man', the 500,000-year old fossil evidence of human presence in China, has transformed. Alas, Pakistanis are still in love with the Peking Man -- 'our friendship higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the Indian Ocean'. The Peking Man, in the meanwhile, has moved on. The new Peking Man is pragmatic and commonsensical, earthly and wise -- all those things and perhaps to a flaw.
China's foreign policy establishment now relies heavily on academics -- like Professor Zha Daojion -- and members of the think-tank community, like Dr Yang Jiemian. Over the past decade, China has invested heavily into the development of think-tanks; human capital, plush research offices along with superior perks and privileges.
There is evidence that the old Peking Man was "able to control and use fire'. There is evidence now that the new Peking Man has a singular goal -- to double, triple and quadruple China's $4 trillion GDP by 2050. And, any country that can help China go where it wants to go is a friend -- or you are on your own (in FY 2008, total Foreign Direct Investment into Pakistan stood at $5 billion and of that China invested a paltry $13.7 million or 0.27 per cent of the total). Yes, China has over the past few years invested $198 million into the Gwadar Port Project but there's evidence aplenty that China is in no mood to take America head-on and if America develops a serious interest in a particular region China backs off right away.
Yes, 722 soldiers of the People's Liberation Army were killed in the Sino-Indian War but that was 47 years ago (more than 3,000 Indian soldiers were killed in the Sino-Indian War of 1962). In 2000, President Narayanan visited China. In 2002, Premier Zhu Rongji was in India. In 2003, PM Vajpayee went to China. In 2004, India and China agreed to open up Jelepla and Nathula trading posts. In 2005, Premier Wen Jiabao was in Bangalore. In 2006, ONGC Videsh Ltd and China National Petroleum Corporation signed an agreement to undertake joint bids. Sino-Indian trade now exceeds a mammoth $52 billion a year (Pakistan-China bilateral trade is around $7 billion a year).
Yes, America and China may in effect be long-term strategic adversaries but Sino-US trade now exceeds $333 billion a year (1992: $33 billion). Furthermore, almost all of $1.9 trillion worth of China's foreign exchange reserves are dollar denominated. China, as a consequence, has an intrinsic interest in the health of the US dollar and by extension in the well-being of the US economy. Additionally, US companies have established more than 20,000 joint ventures in China while 100 of the top US-based multinationals have ongoing projects in China.
Yes, there's a strategic angle to Pakistan-China relationship. Pakistan, for instance, can become a geographical impediment to America's China-containment policy. China also uses Pakistan to cap India's geo-strategic ambitions. And then, China is very concerned -- and seeks Pakistan's help -- in containing the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (the militant organisation that wants to create an independent Islamic state out of China's Xinjiang region). For Pakistan, China is a major supplier of military hardware, nuclear reactors and a counter leverage to the US.
Shanghai and Beijing have very little 'Chinese' left in them -- both are concrete jungles with American-style webs of freeways, grade separations and interchanges. Shanghai is all about dollars and cents while Beijing is more political.
Where does Pakistan fit into this new game of dollars and cents? We are all about emotions and commotions, about pride and rage. The new Peking Man is pragmatic and realistic, astute and hard-boiled. We ought to trade some of our emotionalism in exchange for some of their pragmatism. The question is if they would be willing to do that.
The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh15@ hotmail.com
Dr. Furrukh Saleem cherry picked a very strange quote from Dr. Zha Daojiong. It is pedagogical to look analyze the quote which says The Gwadar Port Project does not make much sense for China. This a very strange quote which does not make any sense at all. It runs contrary to all the analysis of major experts around the world. Chinas Gibralter-Gwader: Beijingss Guantanimo- Hambantoa defies India in the oceans. An investigation is in order. We scrutinized the issue and wrote to Dr. Daojiong. We could not find an iota of evidence of a shift in Chinese policy towards Pakistan. Some of his major writings of Dr. Zha Daojiong include the following:
The Straits of Malacca: Gateway or Gauntlet?
Security in the South China Sea
Building a Neighborly Community: Post-Cold War China, Japan, and Southeast Asia
Calming troubled waters by Zha Daojiong
We did find one article that needs some discussion. We found this edited interview in Redifnews the most poignant with ref. to Indian-Chinese relations. China and India are seeking each other out. The interview seems to support Dr. Saleems thesisif he had any. Rediff News is one of the most rabidly Anti-Pakistani news outlets.(So Neutrality Is Quetionable)
A few recent events tell us that Chinapak is on the upswing and Chindia has been discarded.
1) Chinas Gibralter (Gwader) and Guantanimo (Hambantota) defies India in the oceans. New Delhi was prepared to counter Chinese advances in the neighbouring countries. There is no shortfall in preparedness from our side in this regard. Chinese influence is not just in Pakistan, but they are trying to develop a port in Sri Lanka and in Myanmar as well. And we are well aware of all these developments. And we are taking steps that this Chinese influence does not pose a threat to our nation, Mr Raju said. Indias junior defence minister M.M. Pallam Raju. Encircling India: Chinas string of pearl strategy
Indias ocean is Chinese lake: String of pearls threaten India
2)
after stationing the Sukhoi Su-30MIK war jets in Tezpur in Assam, the Indian Air Force will post another squadron of its frontline jets at the Chabua air base under its military policy to boost security along the border with China in the northeast. IAF Indian forward bases in Ladakh & Tezpur to threaten China
3) In what could be a latest and one of the biggest threats to India, Pakistan has hired a Chinese company to build an illegal railway station on no-mans land near the Indian border at Barmer, It claimed that the station being built by a Chinese company formed one of the many moves by Beijing to unsettle New Delhi.When the railway station was built in 2006 to coincide with the reopening of the Munabao-Khokhrapar line, it was against international laws, since it was built 150 metres inside the demarcated no-mans land, the report claimed. China rail integrates Afghanistan, Tajikistan, & Pakistan
Now Pakistan is all set to make the structure permanent and in a double whammy for India, Islamabad has invited a Chinese company to construct the station and that too on the zero line, it said. Two weeks ago engineers from the Chinese company carried out a survey of the area. CNN-IBN news channel
It is pedagogical to note that a lot of water has gone down the Indus since 2005. Many Chinese leaders have visited Pakistan only, a resurgent Russia has waged war in Georgia to contain NATO, India has signed a Nuclear deal with the US, and Russias Gozprom is building the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline without India. Have these factors imperiled Dr. Daojiongs point of view in China? Let us analyze this situation in the light of his later articles.
Who is Professor Zha Daojiong? Zha Daojiong is a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing. He espouses close cooperation between China and the US US and Chinas Energy Relationship. He may be reached at
zha@ruc.edu.cn. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Hawaii and the East-West Center and has experience teaching and researching in the United States, Macao, and Japan. He is editor of Chinas International Relations in the 21st Century: dynamics of paradigm change (University Press of America, 2000), author of a dozen articles in refereed academic journal published in the United States and the United Kingdom. Currently Dr. Zha is writing a book on the post-war political economy of relations among China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, to be published by the Manchester University Press.
The other author quoted by Dr. Saleem is Dr Yang Jiemian.
Who is Dr Yang Jiemian? He is president of the Chinese think-tank called Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (
http://www.siis.org.cn/en/index.aspx). In a recent encounter Dr. Jiemian seems to be defending Chinas latest deep sea port in Bangaldesh, which is part of its String of Pearls strategy.
He said that during their stay in the capital they would meet officials and academicians as well as participate in discussions on security issues from the regional perspective. Jiemean said that the main purpose of the visit was to promote mutual understanding as well as work together for establishing a favourable and reasonable world order in the wake of the global economic crisis. Zhao Ganchengsaid, in reply to a question, that China does not see any conflict with the USA if it comes to build the deep seaport in the Bay of Bengal. Chinas policy is defensive, he claimed. China wants SAARC to be involved in anti-terrorism campaign
There are only two articles published by the SIIS. Articles on Pakistanneither one written by Dr. Jiemen.
Politics in Pakistan Perceived in Three FactorsMilitary, Religion and U.S. Though this article is in Chinese, at least of the the Abstracts at the end discusses Chindia
Military Regime and Democracy in Pakistan
Peking Man's Zero Sum game? Chindia vs Chinapak? or Beijing Man's Chimerica? | Rupee News
(I Have Just Quoted Excerpts Which Are Relevant)
Just One Request Bro,Read The Columns Of Dr Farrukh Saleem On Thar Coal Thar Coal:Claims Vs. Facts and False Hopes and Do A Little Research On Your Own.You Will Find Out The Kind Of Liar He Is.I Will Tell You Where He Has Deceived In Another Post
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