gau8av
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Actually, war now is on stalemate, the frontline has not been changed since October. The initial shock of Russia Para and Russia Special Force have been absorbed and now both side has been using the ceasefire to rearm and resupply.
Time is on Ukraine side tho. As Russia is now on a ticking clock, It's estimated by OECD that funding the rebel costing 5 to 6 millions USD per day 3 to 5 billions in general for all the welfare payment, military cost, and Russia own economy is about to collapse. Either Rebel can finish off the war t few months, or Russia have to seriously think they may need to pull out to avoid being sucked in another "Afghanistan"
The only thing left now is see who collapse first. The Ukrainian defence in Eastern Ukraine? Or Russia Economy first.
But highly unlikely the defence is gonna break soon, as news like this keep coming in
Donetsk airport terminal ‘free of militants’ : UNIAN news (2 weeks ago)
Боевики пообещали оставить "киборгов" в покое | УКРИНФОРМ
I don't think this is anything like Afghanistan. The Russian Duma might pass a law that would authorize use of their military inside Ukraine, meaning a full scale invasion. If that happens the Ukies will capitulate in a matter of days and NATO will do nothing but sit and watch.