How much should India spend on defence?

[Established_1965]

20% at least. Otherwise none of us will take you seriously.

Bro! U r representing Defence.pk as a MOD. Please don't troll.

 

[Armstrong]

Bro! U r representing Defence.pk as a MOD. Please don't troll.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Bro! U r representing Defence.pk as a MOD. Please don't troll.

It was just sarcasm. Hardly trolling.

 

[Sugarcane]

Equal to China

 

[Skull and Bones]

Out of curiosity, when is this end? When can Modernization be "finished?" It didn't end with T-90s, type 99 and even Armada or F-22, J-20 and FGFA, I doubt it's ever going to end.

So how can you hike it up a few years and then decrease? Today's treasure is tomorrow's garbage.

Few points to ponder, Indian armed forces haven't inducted any substantial platforms in the last one and half decade, replenishing that will will take half a decade more, and considering that most of the platforms does comes with a service life of 2 decade or more, i believe that increased expenditure for half decade will give us considerable breathing space.

Another fact is, indigenization of defense components and equipments has increased considerably from what is was 2 decades back. So, it can be rest assured that within a decade, we can get independent from from of our foreign acquisitions. And it is obvious that home mode products will come at a cheaper manufacturing and procuring cost.

 

[Gessler]

Amount/percentage of GDP to be spent on defence depends first and foremost on the level of security threat the
said country is facing...not about how many people live below the poverty line.

Given our security scenario, anything between 2.5% and 3% would be good enough. However matching with
China's spending would be pointless as they've got a lot more enemies than India does and spends accordingly, its
not like their people have an opinion on it, either.

Pakistan, well, pretty much scraps every last penny it has on it's war against India and still falls somewhat short.

 

[Abingdonboy]

If anything, India should look at gradually reducing the defence budget down to at most 1.5% of GDP by 2020. The extra money could be funnelled into the economic and social development of India.

This is just silly and ignoring the reality India is faced with. Look at the neighbourhood India resides in, reducing defence spending is not an option, India is not in a position to let its guard down. We have seen that India's enemies are looking to target its economy specifically and without a credible (military) deterrence the economy can not blossom.

As for China, India will eventually close the gap as its economy consistently outpaces China's, China has gone through its industrialisation boom, it is now India's turn to catch up. By 2045/50 there will eb little to choose between them.

Out of curiosity, when is this end? When can Modernization be "finished?" It didn't end with T-90s, type 99 and even Armada or F-22, J-20 and FGFA, I doubt it's ever going to end.

A fair question and I would argue that "enough" would be when the Indian military is modernised across the board. Today there is still vintage equipment in use in the Indian military that has no business still being in service, once, say, the military is in recent of equipment no older than 10 years old (on average) then one can consider the military modernised and the spending levels (as a proportion of GDP) can revert to 2% of GDP. As I say, a temporary 5 year increase to 2.5% of GDP for the next 5 years will largely address all these issues and leave the Indian military on very solid footing.

You are right though, this is an ever changing matrix and the goal posts will always be moving but I think phasing out ancient and unsafe equipment is the least one can ask for.

 

[Daneshmand]

 

[lightoftruth]

If our GDP grow by 7-8% we don't really need an increase in percentage share of defense,we are talking about considerable increase anyway and budgeting is not done like this,defense establishment's sometimes are unable to utilize their allocations,we need a systematic change.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This chart is not correct.

Here is a breakdown of the spending within China's Government budget:

Inside China's $2.2 trillion budget - Economy

Defence spending is in fact the lowest.

Education is the highest.

I.e. Opposite of the chart.

 

[Genesis]

A fair question and I would argue that "enough" would be when the Indian military is modernised across the board. Today there is still vintage equipment in use in the Indian military that has no business still being in service, once, say, the military is in recent of equipment no older than 10 years old (on average) then one can consider the military modernised and the spending levels (as a proportion of GDP) can revert to 2% of GDP. As I say, a temporary 5 year increase to 2.5% of GDP for the next 5 years will largely address all these issues and leave the Indian military on very solid footing.

You are right though, this is an ever changing matrix and the goal posts will always be moving but I think phasing out ancient and unsafe equipment is the least one can ask for.

Sure, there are tons of vintage equipment in China too.

What I will propose to say is look at China, we are quickly replacing old equipment, and we have a huge military industrial complex.

Those budgets have never came down before, once you open the flood gate, you can almost never close it. What looks to be simple cutting budget is jobs lost, and even capabilities lost.

Lastly, be honest, you didn't think INSAS was bad when it just came out did you, it was new and exciting, but now you want nothing more than to wash your hand of that piece, what makes you think after FGFA, Brahmos, and whatever else, you won't look at those with disdain at the end of that cycle.

I mention these because 6th gen fighters are said to be happening around 2030-2040. Reasonable considering F-15 inducted in 70s and F-22 in 2000s, and 2030-40 would make it effectively 30 years for F-22, and I'm hearing India plans to induct FGFA around 2025ish, and that only leaves about 10 years before needing more, and I'm sure getting it to adequate numbers requires around 10 years anyways, so by the time you finish induction, a new wave of fighters would be out.

 

[immortalsoul]

Amount/percentage of GDP to be spent on defence depends first and foremost on the level of security threat the
said country is facing...not about how many people live below the poverty line.

Given our security scenario, anything between 2.5% and 3% would be good enough. However matching with
China's spending would be pointless as they've got a lot more enemies than India does and spends accordingly, its
not like their people have an opinion on it, either.

Pakistan, well, pretty much scraps every last penny it has on it's war against India and still falls somewhat short.

indians always deliberately avoid the truth which hurt their frail ego,the reason you no matching with chinas spending is you cant afford it due to you tinny gdp.
by the way,japan and vietmn are not our enemies thought there are territory disputs.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Inaccurate for India because this is only factoring in the Indian federal government's spending on education but this year the individual states have taken over the majority of this responsibility from the federal government and in reality how much India spends as a nation on education will far exceed how much it spends on defence but this will require a lot of in depth research as you would have to go state by state and add up their individual expenditures. Instead lazy Westerners will ignore that and even lump in how much India spends on federal law enforcement into India's defence budget (god knows why) for good measure to make such figures that little bit more meaningless.

If our GDP grow by 7-8% we don't really need an increase in percentage share of defense,we are talking about considerable increase anyway and budgeting is not done like this,defense establishment's sometimes are unable to utilize their allocations,we need a systematic change.

Things have changed in the past few years, those times the forces have run short of funds towards the end of the financial year.

Sure, there are tons of vintage equipment in China too.

What I will propose to say is look at China, we are quickly replacing old equipment, and we have a huge military industrial complex.

Those budgets have never came down before, once you open the flood gate, you can almost never close it. What looks to be simple cutting budget is jobs lost, and even capabilities lost.

Lastly, be honest, you didn't think INSAS was bad when it just came out did you, it was new and exciting, but now you want nothing more than to wash your hand of that piece, what makes you think after FGFA, Brahmos, and whatever else, you won't look at those with disdain at the end of that cycle.

I mention these because 6th gen fighters are said to be happening around 2030-2040. Reasonable considering F-15 inducted in 70s and F-22 in 2000s, and 2030-40 would make it effectively 30 years for F-22, and I'm hearing India plans to induct FGFA around 2025ish, and that only leaves about 10 years before needing more, and I'm sure getting it to adequate numbers requires around 10 years anyways, so by the time you finish induction, a new wave of fighters would be out.

True but I am not saying cut defence spending after 5 years but cut the proportion of GDP spent on defence from 2.5% to 2%. With strong economic growth this would balance itself out after a few years in real terms.


It is a fair point to say that once certain patterns are established they are hard to change but then what is worrying is that the latest pattern that has emerged is India is spending just 1.7% of GDP on defence when traditionally the figure has hovered around 2%. Of course, thanks to economic growth, the actual expenditure is higher than it has ever been before.



I will reiterate, I am only talking about the immediate future i.e. the next five years, beyond that no matter what India is spending (1.7%, 2% or more) will be more than sufficient as India's economy will be considerably larger by then (5 trillion by 2025). The real issue is between now and then as India's military has been neglected for the past decade or so, faces deficiencies in many key areas and at present spending levels will take at least a decade to recover. With a temporary increase to 2.5% the issues could be addressed in 4-5 years and that would be that.

 

[Prajapati]

2.5% to 3% of GDP make sense only when you have a policy of ZERO money being spent on Foreign goods.

When India can manufacture 99% of its defence goods in India, THEN defence budget can rise. Not before. Even then it is more advisable to expand your Economy and Grow the PIE than take larger share of the pie

 

[cirr]

5-10%，preferably 15%，of GDP。