How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan? Peter Zeihan

[Apollon]

The world have seen how west sanctions work on russia in ukrainian war. It's utterly useless,the russian ruble even rise to a new height in years.
The world have seen the utter cowardness of the west in ukraine war too. The whole west hide behind the borderline of the ukraine and their propaganda machine,don't even dare to provide the ukraine some tanks.
We have years to prepare the war,your sanctions would work even poorer than russia. Your navies wouldn't even dare to come close to taiwan due to our DF hypersonic missiles,you would have no means to provide weapons let alone fight for taiwan.

The russian ruble is dead. The numbers are artifical. Why dont anyone invests in russian ruble amigo?


And its because of west that 30.000 russians are dead already.


China is silent and knows its place

Russian Airbus and Boeing aircraft banned from Chinese airspace – reports - AeroTime

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has reportedly banned Airbus and Boeing aircraft operated by Russian airlines from entering Chinese airspace. Several Russian airlines received and later published memos citing the ban, Russian news site RBK reports. According to the report, some...

www.aerotime.aero

 

[FuturePAF]

Drone are what we called "Passive" system, it tagged with your intelligence gathering capability. Because it is unmanned, without an expanded "Intelligence" Network to chart the progress, unmanned drone are second to useless.

The reason why Ukraine can use their drone so effectively is mostly because of 2 things. NATO feeding intelligence to them and local intelligence. There are ways for Ukrainian civilian to pass Russian troop info back to the Ukrainian command so they can launch drone strike against those target. NATO also have an extensive intelligence network combine the 4 core systems, HUMINT, SATINT, OSINT and SIGINT. I am pretty sure NATO have more battlefield awareness in Ukraine than either Russia or Ukrainian. That is why the Ukrainian know where to send their drone and how to attack their target.

On the other hand, how much intel can China gather from Taiwan is unknown. Not much was known from the Chinese Intelligence capability to the outside, most likely because they don't do much other than launching espionage ops rather than intel gathering ops. But on the other hand, Drone is a tactical tool, which mean you can probably target command and communication structure or something you need to prioritised, but it would never offset the balance because professional soldier fight on even without command present. Which mean drone could help, but not going to be much to alleviate the pressure of the first wave. This is still going to be a bloodbath on the first couple of wave.

China may not have full situational awareness on the battlefield, but with secure comms, don’t you think they will have secure line of sight comms to just send thousands upon thousands of unmanned drones (land and aerial) to overwhelm the beaches and mountain sides overlooking those beaches? The drones may have AI but they may still require a man in the loop for some of the operations.

They don’t need to be the most capable platforms, but just enough to pin down Taiwanese defenders while manned platforms and troops come ashore.

 

[jhungary]

China may not have full situational awareness on the battlefield, but with secure comms, don’t you think they will have secure line of sight comms to just send thousands upon thousands of unmanned drones (land and aerial) to overwhelm the beaches and mountain sides overlooking those beaches? The drones may have AI but they may still require a man in the loop for some of the operations.

They don’t need to be the most capable platforms, but just enough to pin down Taiwanese defenders while manned platforms and troops come ashore.

There are two questions here.

1.) Can China control thousand and thousand of drone.
2.) Can drone pin down the Taiwanese defence when troop come ashore.

For number 1. I don't know, not an expert on Chinese Aerial Capability, I have no exact answer to this question. All I can say is this. For this to happen, there are a lot of communication going on simultaneously Say you have 10,000 soldier controlling 10,000 UCAV, does that mean you can effectively control those 10,000 UCAV and engage their target as you progress?

Look at it this way, it is very obvious you will need to have a target for you to attack, so how are you going to find that target, and to what mean you know that is the target you want to attack first? UCAV does not carry unlimited ammo you know. The first part is easy, you go find a target either by ground troop feeding your target from the ground while they are fighting, or you have enough AWACS up and they pick up sea/ground/air threat as they go along. The second parts is a lot harder, because if this is a ground feed, it's what we called a "Localised" target, that is the only target you see, while you don't know what that is or how important to the situation at hand (ie the landing) everybody wanted their target to be attacked first, and in a big battlefield, there are a lot of troop calling out a lot of target all at the same time. On the other hand, if that is a AWACS fed, you will know all the available target in the area, but you won't know what is what, AWACS can detect threat, but it wont tell you what it is. So, without complete Battlefield awareness, your drone will be just blindly attacking target as it goes, that would not improve battlefield efficiency.

For number 2. Drone don't carry wonder weapon, at best you will get the same weapon you are carrying with a ground attack aircraft, but with lower number. It is tried and tested that no airpower can change the outcome of a battle, same with manned platform, you still risk being shot down and not be able to engage your target, the only thing you get is preserve your pilot, it does not really do much on the frontline with troop is fighting. On the other hand, missile and bomb used on drone are the same used on Attack Helicopter or Strike Fighter. If a target is immune from air attack (like in a bunker or underground structure or heavily defended by Anti-Air. Your outcome is the same. And believe me, Taiwan probably already have their structure hardened from air attack since air power come to term. So what left is what we call soft target, the tanks, the APC, troop masses and so on, it's not really easy to locate those stuff on battle. That is the reason why drone didnt change much of the landscape of Eastern Ukraine for the Ukrainian

Introducing Drone in the battle is probably going on the same axis as introducing air power into battle. The only different is just that you are not risking a pilot to do that. And for frontline troop defending those beachhead, not killing a pilot is probably the least of their concern, it's that 10 of thousand of troop that landing ashore is the problem, not the guy who fly from behind enemy line.

 

[chinasun]

Modern warfare has shifted from informationization to intelligence, and this time China has not been left behind. Facing the future, we know all the means of the United States. We will not let the financial capital behind the dollar have the last laugh.

 

[S10]

1. Take out C3I assets.
2. Suppress and degrade IADS
3. Shut down critical infrastructure
4. Hunt stragglers with drones and long range artillery.
5. Do this for a month and see if the island can still put up organized resistance.

 

[letsrock]

The russian ruble is dead. The numbers are artifical. Why dont anyone invests in russian ruble amigo?


And its because of west that 30.000 russians are dead already.


China is silent and knows its place

Russian Airbus and Boeing aircraft banned from Chinese airspace – reports - AeroTime

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has reportedly banned Airbus and Boeing aircraft operated by Russian airlines from entering Chinese airspace. Several Russian airlines received and later published memos citing the ban, Russian news site RBK reports. According to the report, some...

www.aerotime.aero

as long as china respects the ruble exchange then thats all that ruble needs. China can supply almost everything a light economy needs - and russia is self sufficient in heavy economy.

That blocking got nothing to do with sanctions.

 

[Apollon]

as long as china respects the ruble exchange then thats all that ruble needs. China can supply almost everything a light economy needs - and russia is self sufficient in heavy economy.

That blocking got nothing to do with sanctions.

China supports nothing in russia.

They now even banned russian airplanes from their airspace.


A weak and crippled russia is in chinas best interest.

1. Take out C3I assets.
2. Suppress and degrade IADS
3. Shut down critical infrastructure
4. Hunt stragglers with drones and long range artillery.
5. Do this for a month and see if the island can still put up organized resistance.

One bomb on three gorges dam. Any study about the effects?

The moment a dam breachs would be quite big effect.

 

[gambit]

If you believe this then there's nothing to worry about.

Zeihan have a following is because his arguments are COGENT...

adjective

1. (of an argument or case) clear, logical, and convincing.

...And what USUALLY happens if you CONSISTENTLY have such arguments? You get attention and often believed.

You guys can do, or at least try, the same. And hopefully, maybe the PLA will hire you to be their next grand strategist.

 

[DF41]

Interesting reading. But wow, you really have soooo much free time to make this. Also, you remind me to someone "FROM" North Korea who behave like yourself some years ago.

Just my suggestion, if you really want to become a professional military analyst, spend your time to make more useful article. Do more research, you can write your own article here in this forum to get some recognition from the mod like Jhungary, and when you have some recognition from people, you can become like Deino; write a book and publish them in China. Be sure to make a proper analyst rather than write utter gibberish hyper nationalist post like this. To do that you have to really understand your stuff. If you're not have any plan to join PLA, then learn from them. Seek a connection with them. Maybe someday I'll become your customer and buy one of your book and read it with heart content.

Why do I suggest you like this? Because I see that you like to write. Specially in term of military stuff. So maybe you have some talent to become like Deino. As long as you put your heart into it, and become professional in this expertise. But first, put aside your ultra nationalist minded to clear your mind first.

I'm believe that PLA has the capability to take over Taiwan in short time militarily. Just like what they claim. But nobody know how they'll do it. In this world only Xi and PLA highest commands know their plan. And I'm sure that there is not only 1 methods, but many. They should have multiple scenarios planned. and those scenarios will change many time. The blueprints won't be such a fixed scenario, because that plan will based on the newest situation on the field. For example, the increasing number of American military activity near Taiwan, the new Russian- Ukrainian (Proxy war between Russia and NATO war) that happen today, etc.

I am retired and have enough time.
My interest is actually elsewhere . But I get irritated when idiots and zombies who think China a pushover and not realising the military might and capability of China. What I wrote likely to be far exceeded by actual China in ways I cannot even imagine.

I did not take long to write that. Much of that copy and paste from what I written before.

Took me about 5 to 6 minutes.

But I missed out quite a far bit.

So allow me to add to what I written in this thread.

Folks forgotten how China can fight and did fight.

================================================



USA had military advantage and fire power at least 100 times that of China in 1950



In 1950, the weakness of China very very real and not imaginary at all. Armed largely with single shot bolt action rifle a noch above black powder muzzle loader.

How can China ever hoped to prevail against battleships with 16 inch guns and planes and artillery and Ma Deuces with unlimited ammo supply and the claimed battle savy of USA army and Marines?

Dugout Doug and his generals laughed at those chink laundrymen and promised that they be crushed to red paste with firepower and laughed at the China warning not to approach Yalu river.


The military might and strength of USA with heavy artillery and planes and tanks and battleships with 16 inch guns cannot be resisted by China with economy slightly out of stone age and with single shot bolt action rifles. Bolt operated rifles were just one stage above using muzzle loading muskets and black powder.

That Chinese be slaughtered and turned into red pulp should they dare to fight good old Dugout in Korea.

Chinese whacked USA and the UN combined that they had to flee south of the Parallel as demanded by China.Chinese fought with bolt operated rifles against Ma Dueces , automatic weapons and artillery and tanks and planes and chopters and battleships with 16″ guns.

Go read the book by David Halberstam
The Coldest Winter

Look on the front line at 24 Nov 1950 and the front line of 16 Dec 1950.

It took China only twenty days and less to do that push down to 38 parallel fighting USA and the UN combined who had 100 times and more of the firepower of China.

=================================================================

And for the Sino Japan war, Japan was so confident that Japan will need only 3 months to smash and conquer whole of China. Especially considering the arms Japan got and the almost no arms China got.

That was enforced by the rape of China from the Imperial powers that of course not allow China to manufacture weapons, major or minor.


Did the Japanese win in CHina?
Could the Japs win in China?
I thought they were stuck in a quagmire and sucked deeper and deeper in China and being killed and injured by the millions in the Sino Japanese war despite the Chinese having pathetically little arms.
I think the German Army stuck and surrounded in Stalingrad got more arms and supplies send to them than what was send in all entirety to the Chinese in China during the Sino Japanese war.
Japan got sucked into quicksand in China despite overwhelming military advantage and 4 to 5 times as many Japanese died at the hands of Chinese than they did in the islands of Pacific at the arms of the USA Marines and Army and Navy.
That the Japanese soldiers were very well trained can be seen in their earlier victories against British and USA.
The Japanese could fight very very well.
As to how Japs could fight, do recall 36,000 Japanese invaded Malaya , forced and fought their way down and utterly defeated 86,000++ British troops capturing Singapore. So do not think Japs could not fight.
About 130,000 Indian, Australian and British troops became prisoners of war when Singapore was surrended to General Yamashita. The 130,000 Brits and Allied forces with artillery and tanks and planes and guns and lots of ammo surrended to 36,000 Japs who rode down on fucking bicycles fighting with guns and hardly any arty .
Neither could the Americans hold off the Japanese at the beginning because the Japanese fought extremely well against USA as seen in Corregidor.
The defensive arsenal on Corregidor was formidable with 45 coastal guns and mortars organized into 23 batteries, some seventy-two anti-aircraft weapons assigned to thirteen batteries and a minefield of approximately 35 groups of controlled mines.
The two 12-inch (305 mm) guns of Batteries Smith and Hearn, with a horizontal range of 29,000 yd (27,000 m) and all-around traverse were the longest range of all the island's artillery.
Caballo Island, with Fort Hughes—just south of Corregidor—was the next largest in area. At about 160 acres (65 ha), the island rose abruptly from the bay to a height of 380 ft (120 m) on its western side. Commander Francis J. Bridget was in charge of its beach defenses with a total of 800 men, of whom 93 were Marines and 443 belonged to the Navy, by the end of April 1942. Coastal artillery numbered some 13 assorted pieces, with its anti-aircraft defenses tied in with those of Corregidor.
Fort Drum—which lay about 4 mi (6.4 km) south of Fort Hughes—was the most unusual of the harbor defenses. Military engineers had cut away the entire top of El Fraile Island down to the water-line and used the island as a foundation to build a reinforced concrete "battleship", 350 ft (110 m) long and 144 ft (44 m) wide, with exterior walls of concrete and steel 25–36 ft (7.6–11.0 m) thick. The top deck of this concrete battleship was 40 ft (12 m) above the low-water mark and had 20 ft (6.1 m) thick walls. Equipped with four 14-inch (356 mm) guns in armored turrets facing seaward, a secondary battery of four casemated 6-inch (152 mm) gunsguns, and two antiaircraft guns, the fort with its 200-man garrison was considered impregnable to attack.
And the 13,000++ USA and Filipino soldiers left on Corregidor with all those hardware and lots of military goodies were ran over and surrendered to 2,400++ Japs in three landings made by the Japs on the island.
And that Gen McArthur ran away from his troops in Corregidor for which he was awarded MOH for his glorious act of running away.
As for China at the time of the Sino Japanese war, China was defenseless.
China had little industry in China being raped and pillaged by Western powers all set to divide and dismembered her and selling opium to China prior to the Sino Japanese war from July 7, 1937, to September 2, 1945
And for that purpose, the Western Powers were not going to let China have the means to produce armaments which could be used to stop the West from enjoying what they could from China.
Second Sino-Japanese War - Wikipedia
Japanese had a very strong military and armaments , from the steel USA happily sold to her for that purpose, together with the oil . Going on until almost before Japan decided to attack Pearl harbour because the Japanese were very unhappy USA not selling to Japan as much steel and oil as they want to beat and loot China in the way the Japanese want to.
China ports were all taken by Japanese so nothing could get through and for that matter, USA was not going to do that as USA had this great friendship going on with Japan.
Until Japan attacked Pearl Harbour that USA decided perhaps USA needed to supply arms to China except USA main focus was to supply arms to Europe as China was a bastard child. China did not even get 1% of the armaments supplied to UK, Russia and other Allied forces in other theatres of war.
The much ballyhooed military lift over the Hump was a fucking joke as that primarily was to try to get fuel and bombs over to bases for USA planes to bomb Japan and not arms for China. And at that, the fuel required to fly over the hump, and to fly back meant only a pittance could be brought over.
Chinese had to take on 80% of the Japanese Armed strength in China itself and 20% of the Japanese in the Pacific fighting the Americans
From Jamie Wong answer to How powerful is the Chinese military?
As a matter of fact, a lot of PLA soldiers didn’t even have a rifle. For major battles, each soldier got 1 rifle, 100~200 bullets, and 2~3 grenades. As for the guerrillas who was fighting in the Japanese occupied ares, half of them didn’t even have a rifle or pistol. Each battle, 5 rounds were the standard equipment. Others had to use blades and spears.
[

↑ This picture shows the common situation of PLA guerrillas.
]

]↑ And this was already a major division, but in the tough area.[
]

↑ This is how the 8th route army looked like. It was the major division of PLA. Still no armored vehicle.[
]

[
E]This was how Chinese went into battle in 1941
Those Chinese lucky enough to have rifles would have five rounds for each rifle. The rest using swords and spears against Japanese machine guns, tanks and artillery.
Yet they fought and killed Japanese invaders.
Even though the Chinese had no experience with fighting, and Japanese very well armed and with enormous experience in war and killing, Chinese took them on. (so those that always harp and crow that Chinese got no experience, please remember this and take note)
And Chinese killed over 1.5 million Japanese soldiers. Chinese did it by strapping explosives to their bodies to rush at tanks and machine guns and Japanese concentration of troops in suicidal charges.
Except the chinese being chinese, never ever will call their charges as banzai charges.
This not only killed Japanese, this terrified them as to how Chinese with so few arms could take on the Japanese. This was when the Japanese copied the Chinese in Japanese Pacific war against USA.
Why should the Japanese use Banzai attacks on Chinese in China? Japanese got machine guns and artillery and tanks and planes to kill the Chinese without having to go Banzaiiing!
Japanese learned Kamikazi and Banzai attacks from Chinese.
From the Chinese who had little arms and no other choices to their killing of Japanese in China.
Chinese paid with 14 ++ million of their Chinese soldiers dying . And another 14++ million Chinese civilians slaughtered and murdered by the Japanese soldiers in attempts to terrorised and intimidate China into surrendering.
For the Americans it was very different in their later fight with Japanese.
USA did not have to strap explosives to their bodies like the Chinese soldiers to rush the Japanese.
USA had battleships with 16″ guns and planes and bombs and Ma Deuces and artillery , tanks flame throwers and unlimited ammo and kitchen sink to help them take on the remaining 20% of the Japanese on islands like Iwo Jima, Guadalcanal, Guam, Okinawa maybe taking out 200,000 Japanese troops in the entire Pacific islands campaigns.[
E]

[
]Now we look at how the Chinese fought when they had adequate arms.
Battle of Yenangyaung - Wikipedia
And in Burma, at the battle of Yenangyaung, almost 7,000 British soldiers, and 500 prisoners and civilians were encircled by an equal number of Japanese soldiers from the IJA 33rd Division at Yenangyaung and its oil field. The 33rd Division had cut the Magwe road between Slim's two divisions, who were now about 50 miles (80 km) apart.
General Sun instead led his 113th Regiment with only 1,121 men, of which only 800 were combat personnel, in the rescue mission.
British veteran expresses thanks to descendants of China Expeditionary Force
And those 800 chinese saved the Brits. And those 800 Chinks pulled the chestnuts of the 7,000 valiant brits out of the fucking fire and slaughtered the IJA 33rd Division.
In China, Chinese with kungfu and spears and swords and hardly any guns hold the Japs and fought the Japs killing 1.77 million of the Japs and wounding 1.9 million Japs with suicidal charges strapping explosives to take out Jap tanks and machine guns and artillery.
But Chinese when given adequate arms could fight far better than the Japs.
Imagine now if Chinese had been given sufficient arms in China to fight the fucking Japanese there in China!
There might not even be a fucking TORA TORA TORA at Pearl Harbour. And no Japanese in Pacific at all for USA Army and Marines to fight as Japs will all be in China and being fucked and killed by Chinese in China.




I AM SURE CHINA GOT REDUNDANCIES AFTER REDUNDANCIES AS TO KNOW WHERE USA NAVAL ASSETS ARE AT ALL TIMES.

AND IF PUSHING TURN TO REAL SHOVING, USA SAILORS WILL REMAIN FOREVER YOUNG

USA LOST BADLY TO CHINA WHEN CHINA HAD ONLY SINGLE SHOT BOLT ACTION RIFLES AGAINST DUGOUT DOUG AND HIS BATTLESHIPS WITH 16 INCH GUNS AND CARRIERS AND PLANES AND ARTILLERIES AND MA DEUCES WITH UNLIMITED AMMO.

AND THE USA FIASCO IN VIETNAM WHEN USA HAD 100 TIMES THE FIREPOWER OF CHINA AND VIETNAM

USA WERE WARNED NOT TO GO NORTH OF THE PARALLEL


USA dared not cross the parallel.




China told them if USA cross the parallel, China will put Chinese boots on the ground below the parallel in numbers that pale what China did when Dugout Doug approached the Yalu River.

USA remembered what happened when they encountered Chinese even though most of the Chinese had only single shot bolt action rifle against USA battleships and artillery and Ma Deuces and unlimited ammo.

USA blinked and blinked and tail between legs and did not have the cojones to cross.

AND NOW USA KNOW CHINA GOT LOTS OF BANG AND LONGER REACH THEN USA CAN DREAM OF.
AND ANY TIME USA WANT TO TURN PUSHING INTO REAL SHOVING, CHINA WILL BE MORE THAN READY AND WILLING TO TANGO
Part 1 of 2 to Brainsucker
====================================================================================

 

[DF41]

Interesting reading. But wow, you really have soooo much free time to make this. Also, you remind me to someone "FROM" North Korea who behave like yourself some years ago.

Just my suggestion, if you really want to become a professional military analyst, spend your time to make more useful article. Do more research, you can write your own article here in this forum to get some recognition from the mod like Jhungary, and when you have some recognition from people, you can become like Deino; write a book and publish them in China. Be sure to make a proper analyst rather than write utter gibberish hyper nationalist post like this. To do that you have to really understand your stuff. If you're not have any plan to join PLA, then learn from them. Seek a connection with them. Maybe someday I'll become your customer and buy one of your book and read it with heart content.

Why do I suggest you like this? Because I see that you like to write. Specially in term of military stuff. So maybe you have some talent to become like Deino. As long as you put your heart into it, and become professional in this expertise. But first, put aside your ultra nationalist minded to clear your mind first.

I'm believe that PLA has the capability to take over Taiwan in short time militarily. Just like what they claim. But nobody know how they'll do it. In this world only Xi and PLA highest commands know their plan. And I'm sure that there is not only 1 methods, but many. They should have multiple scenarios planned. and those scenarios will change many time. The blueprints won't be such a fixed scenario, because that plan will based on the newest situation on the field. For example, the increasing number of American military activity near Taiwan, the new Russian- Ukrainian (Proxy war between Russia and NATO war) that happen today, etc.

I am retired and have enough time.
My interest is actually elsewhere . But I get irritated when idiots and zombies who think China a pushover and not realising the military might and capability of China. What I wrote likely to be far exceeded by actual China in ways I cannot even imagine.

I did not take long to write that. Much of that copy and paste from what I written before.

Took me about 5 to 6 minutes.

But I missed out quite a far bit.

So allow me to add to what I written in this thread.

Folks forgotten how China can fight and did fight.


Part 2 of 2 to Brainsucker
====================================================================================

Americans are so amusing.
For years they went around saying the ocean is a big place and their carriers and ships can roam about and hide.

Then slowly it sunk into their heads China got lots of drones.


Like Divine Eagles

According to Popular Science, China’s Divine Eagle UAV has a maximum altitude of 25km (or 79,000 feet).

In contrast, the US Global Hawk has a maximum altitude of only 18km (or 57,000 feet).

And Chinese Soar Dragon XiangLong

ANOTHER BIG BIRD

The 7-10 ton Xianglong, or WZ-7, with some stealthy features, would make an ideal EW drone thanks to its huge size, and lone endurance. Its unique 20 meter joined tandem wings increase its range and on station time.

China’s long-endurance Feilong-1 drone is ready for high-altitude missions

WZ-8 drones are hypersonic and fly very high and see very very far.

The CH-6 unmanned aerial vehicle at the airshow in Zhuhai.Source: VCG/Getty Images
By
Katrina Nicholas

A high-altitude, long-endurance drone that can fly for around 20 hours and reach top speeds of 700 kilometers an hour (435 miles an hour) was one of the flying gadgets unveiled at Airshow China 2021 in the southern city of Zhuhai on Tuesday.
Developed by Aerospace CH UAV Co., the CH-6 drone is aimed at high-end arms use while its long flying range means it could be used for a variety of military and civilian missions.
It can also carry out anti-submarine missions, maritime patrols, early warning missions and close-range air support, China’s Global Times said.

China Successfully Tests Solar-Powered Drone Capable of Being Airborne for Months​

A previous version test-flown in September managed to remain afloat for five hours, with the latest flight indicating months-long capabilities.​

BY MARCO MARGARITOFF NOVEMBER 4, 2018


China successfully tested its solar-powered Morning Star drone supposedly capable of being airborne for months at a time, according to Business Insider.
The Developer Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) had already test-flown the unmanned aerial vehicle in September, albeit with a smaller wingspan. This latest flight utilized a 66-foot (20-meter) wingspan version weighing 42 pounds (18.9kg) aimed to reflect the final model. The test flight saw the drone reach and maintain a cruising altitude of over 66,000 feet (20,000 meters).
“With the development and first flight, in addition to a great number of ground, wind tunnel and scale model tests…a solid foundation has been laid for follow-up development,” said AVIC. “We will move quickly towards large-scale, heavy load and long endurance solar-powered UAVs.”

And not to forget

Maritime Militia​

The Maritime Militia, the first line of defense, counts one-hundred eighty-thousand ocean-going fishing boats and four thousand merchant[7] freighters, some towing sonar detectors, crewed by a million experienced sailors transmitting detailed information around the clock on every warship afloat. Their intelligence goes to shore bases that fuse their reports with automated transmissions from Beidou satellites and forward the data to specialists operating ‘vessel management platforms,’ collating, formatting, and sending actionable information up the PLAN command chain.

And sonar buoys all withing Western Pacific ocean. Supposed to be listening to fishes, but can also hear clearly screws of ships turning away.

China got the most super computers of the world. And the supercomputers will be putting all those data to know every second what ships are heading and speed they at.

American now know for sure their carriers and ships are pin pointed and can run but cannot hide unless they hide in Frisco Bay or Hudson Bay.

And Americans know for sure that DF21s and DF26 can do what they supposed to do, hit moving ships.
The target ship was moving, and was a lot lot smaller than a 100,000 carrier. Which made the hit by DF21 and DF26 equivalent to a pin point hits on the apricot, or medulla oblongata. Like bullets from 2 separate snipers hitting the medulla oblongata simultaneously.

Chinese Long-Range Ballistic Missiles Struck Moving Ship In South China Sea: Report​

The test could represent the first full demonstration of a real Chinese long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capability.

www.thedrive.com

Chinese Long-Range Ballistic Missiles Struck Moving Ship In South China Sea: Report​

The test could represent the first full demonstration of a real Chinese long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capability.​

BY JOSEPH TREVITHICK NOVEMBER 16, 2020


At least some of the ballistic missiles that China's People's Liberation Army fired into the South China Sea during an exercise earlier this year, which you can read about more in the War Zone's initial story on those drills, reportedly hit a moving target ship. If true, this would be the country's first known demonstration of an actual long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capability, which could significantly change the operational calculus for any potential opponent, including the United States, in the disputed maritime region and elsewhere in the Pacific.
The South China Morning Post reported last week that Wang Xiangsui, a retired People's Liberation Army (PLA) officer, had said that one DF-26B intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) and one DF-21D medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) had struck the target vessel as it sailed near the Paracel Island chain during the August exercise. Wang, who has been described as "well-connected" in the past, is best known as one of the co-authors of the 1999 book Unrestricted Warfare, which covered various asymmetric means to undermine and defeat countries that were technologically superior to China. It has become a highly influential text, and general concept, in national security circles.


"We launched the DF-21 and DF-26, and the missiles hit a vessel sailing south of the Paracel Islands," Wang said during a closed-door gathering in China's eastern Zhejiang province in October, according to the South China Morning Post. “Shortly after that, an American military attaché in Geneva, [Switzerland] complained and said it would lead to severe consequences if the missiles hit an American aircraft carrier. They see this as a show of force. But we are doing this because of their provocation."

Wang does not appear to have given any details about the target ship, its construction, how fast it might have been moving, or how the PLA may have cued the missiles their target.
It remains unclear exactly how many missiles the PLA fired during the exercise on Aug. 26. South China Morning Post's initial report had indicated that two weapons had been launched, one DF-26B and one DF-21D, from sites in China's northwestern Qinghai province and in Zhejiang, respectively.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1298462189041287170

USA fanboys then come about foaming at the mouth that should their precious carriers be hit, they use nukes.

They think China got measly 200++ nukes.
Just like the 5000 km China underground GREAT WALL, contain only piddling 200++ nukes?
USA not realising China nukes are thermonuclear nukes and immediately usable as Chinese nukes are done to YuMing configuration.

USA must think why with only 200++ nukes, China can fire off 2000++ warheads express delivery via DF5 , DF31AG, DF-41 and JL2 and JL3 and much more.

Perhaps they think most of the warheads are delivering dim sum, sweet and sour chicken and tea bags.

Should USA fire just one nuke at China or chinese forces, all the USA bases in Japan and Okinawa and Singapore and Diego Garcia and in USA be turned into seas and lakes of multicolor glass.

None of USA carriers will be safe even if the USA carriers try to hide in Hudson Bay or Frisco Bay.

USA want to play stupid games with phony FONOPs.
USA will win stupid prize.

 

[Brainsucker]

Just went back to re-read that post; are you saying that China will employ a whole of population approach; a kind of “people’s war” concept to out-supply and out-build the enemy into overwhelming the enemy into submission?

Did I understand correctly?

If so, that maybe true, but the PLA will want to minimize casualties and use as many drones as possible, as well as build up its infrastructure, logistics, and equipment (and spares) well in advance of any battle/war.

Remember the first paragraph of Sun Tzu art of war : War is the most vital matter of the state. It can bring prosperity or destruction. Losing a war can make you lose the state.

I remember Kevin Rudd said this in one of his seminar in US (I watch it in Youtube). he said that the doctrine has been implanted to the deepest mind of all Chinese political and military leaders.

Thus, when China aim to invade Taiwan, they already understand that the one that they fight is not only Taiwan, but the whole Western power. They don't have any choice but to be all out.

I don't say that they won't use drones. Because China is basically one of the leading nations in drone technology. But unfortunately, it is not only drone. The concept of war is more unrestricted than what we think today. So China invasion to Taiwan can't be simulated with a mere board game that the American claim as a war game.

If you see the history of PLA, their concept of war was way too different than what we are seeing today. You must remember that the concept of guerrilla warfare was invented by Mao Zedong. Blitzkrieg is not the most spectacular warfare concepts that invented during world war 2.

You also need to read the history of Korean War. Or, you can just watch Chinese shows about Korean War. The first time China came to intervene, they managed to surprise US Allies and force them to retreat into the south (where the border between north and south exist today). But they didn't use blitzkrieg. It was a combination between guerrilla, ambush, and rapid movement.

All these histories and achievement should be added to the element that calculate on how the Taiwan invasion will be happen. Because China can use more than any traditional concept of warfare that we can think today.

Now the 2nd element that we have to see about PLA is their capability in Galwan. Look at their capability how to deploy army. It was radically very different to the more traditional concept that PLA used long time ago. It show how their newly brigade concept work. From army deployment, logistic, infrastructure building around the battlefield, rapid respond from Xinjiang, Tibet and even eastern side of China; to how they managed to upgrade the capability of their western command troop to handle the newest threat that they have to face at that time.

You should also inspect that for them, the conflict was not all about army deployment, but include scientific research, engineering development and infrastructure building.

If you combine the two elements, you will find a whole new horizon on how China will do when they decide to retake Taiwan. It is more than the limited board game can replicate.

 

[Dungeness]

Peter Zeihan himself was questioned and his own credibility was examed:

 

[gambit]

China have about April or October to invade Taiwan. Give/take a couple weeks on either month.

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

earth.nullschool.net

But realistically, it is a two-weeks window on either half of the yr, which is no surprise to anyone. The island would have to be subdued within that window, else, Taiwanese urban warfare will drag the conflict outside those windows which PLA troops will not be reinforced/resupply, not even by air because if Taiwanese defense is not completely destroyed within that two-weeks window, the PLAAF will be constantly threatened whenever it try to resupply the occupying PLA forces. The Berlin Airlift is a reasonably good example here because those air cargo planes were not under Soviet SAM threats. Remember the 'candy bomber' where US pilots dropped candies to German children. Not likely something like that will happen over Taiwan.

 

[FuturePAF]

There are two questions here.

1.) Can China control thousand and thousand of drone.
2.) Can drone pin down the Taiwanese defence when troop come ashore.

For number 1. I don't know, not an expert on Chinese Aerial Capability, I have no exact answer to this question. All I can say is this. For this to happen, there are a lot of communication going on simultaneously Say you have 10,000 soldier controlling 10,000 UCAV, does that mean you can effectively control those 10,000 UCAV and engage their target as you progress?

Look at it this way, it is very obvious you will need to have a target for you to attack, so how are you going to find that target, and to what mean you know that is the target you want to attack first? UCAV does not carry unlimited ammo you know. The first part is easy, you go find a target either by ground troop feeding your target from the ground while they are fighting, or you have enough AWACS up and they pick up sea/ground/air threat as they go along. The second parts is a lot harder, because if this is a ground feed, it's what we called a "Localised" target, that is the only target you see, while you don't know what that is or how important to the situation at hand (ie the landing) everybody wanted their target to be attacked first, and in a big battlefield, there are a lot of troop calling out a lot of target all at the same time. On the other hand, if that is a AWACS fed, you will know all the available target in the area, but you won't know what is what, AWACS can detect threat, but it wont tell you what it is. So, without complete Battlefield awareness, your drone will be just blindly attacking target as it goes, that would not improve battlefield efficiency.

For number 2. Drone don't carry wonder weapon, at best you will get the same weapon you are carrying with a ground attack aircraft, but with lower number. It is tried and tested that no airpower can change the outcome of a battle, same with manned platform, you still risk being shot down and not be able to engage your target, the only thing you get is preserve your pilot, it does not really do much on the frontline with troop is fighting. On the other hand, missile and bomb used on drone are the same used on Attack Helicopter or Strike Fighter. If a target is immune from air attack (like in a bunker or underground structure or heavily defended by Anti-Air. Your outcome is the same. And believe me, Taiwan probably already have their structure hardened from air attack since air power come to term. So what left is what we call soft target, the tanks, the APC, troop masses and so on, it's not really easy to locate those stuff on battle. That is the reason why drone didnt change much of the landscape of Eastern Ukraine for the Ukrainian

Introducing Drone in the battle is probably going on the same axis as introducing air power into battle. The only different is just that you are not risking a pilot to do that. And for frontline troop defending those beachhead, not killing a pilot is probably the least of their concern, it's that 10 of thousand of troop that landing ashore is the problem, not the guy who fly from behind enemy line.

This is the nature of the emerging AI enabled battlefield. All drones don’t need to be the shooters, as long as they can localize a target they can hand off the data through a secure network to an AI system that will designate and even possibly independently employ weapons to take out that target.

This not only applies to fixed wing aerial drones but rotary and ground vehicles.

The capability is not there yet (in any military) but it may very well get there in a few years as the demand to minimize mot only casualties but also troops deployed in an era of shrinking personnel in the modern militaries of most countries.

 

[jhungary]

This is the nature of the emerging AI enabled battlefield. All drones don’t need to be the shooters, as long as they can localize a target they can hand off the data through a secure network to an AI system that will designate and even possibly independently employ weapons to take out that target.

This not only applies to fixed wing aerial drones but rotary and ground vehicles.

The capability is not there yet (in any military) but it may very well get there in a few years as the demand to minimize mot only casualties but also troops deployed in an era of shrinking personnel in the modern militaries of most countries.

Actually, I know the people who were involved with the Loyal Wingman Project (the AI Attack Drone you are talking about)

Boeing MQ-28 Ghost Bat - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It is not as glory as you think. I can't talk about it here, all I can say is this, with all the bandwidth in the world, you probably not going to be able to support an active battlefield with a few of the AI drone, there are A LOT of communication and handshake with these AI drone even if they were designed to be autonomous due to its security concern.

Problem is, first, we don't see an advance battlefield like that in the near future where AI replacing human, because there are a lot more than we were just talking about (like TA, Path Finding and so on) there are a lot of need to put human in the loop and make sure they are hitting the thing you want to hit. On the other hand, AI development is not just offensive, there are also defensive AI application to even the battlefield.

THE AI battlefield you are after (Where individual AI work together across different platform and work as a team) is probably decade away, probably will not be achieve before I am dead, and I am in my 40s.