How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan? Peter Zeihan

[Broccoli]

Good analysis.

And then there is the threat of international reaction. China's proximity to the world's most concentrated production hub of high-end semiconductors seems like effective leverage. And to some extent, it is. But China's workers lack the skillset to design and build the high-end chips Taiwan is known for. And most of the R&D happens in the United States. While Taiwan's plants would most likely shutter, one should keep in mind that much of China's most valuable exports--high end electronics, smart phones, etc.--are reliant on these very same chips.

Which brings us to global consequences. The world is not going to take lightly to the Chinese upending the chip supply chain. Nor can China expect to avoid crippling economic consequences. Consider that outside of energy and extracted resources, Russia has not spent most of its post-Cold War life integrating too heavily into the global economy. China is the complete opposite. Whatever difficulties Moscow is facing with Western economic sanctions, China's pain would undoubtedly be orders of magnitude worse

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

If you believe this then there's nothing to worry about.

 

[DoTell]

First, China will never “ invade” Taiwan. You don’t ”invade” your own territory. Check with whatever government you are under, chances are they recognize only one China. So go fvk yourself if you try to spin this.

Second, China will fight to the last man and take the whole world with us if anyone try to split our country. You think some fvking silicon chips can stop us?

 

[northeast]

The world have seen how west sanctions work on russia in ukrainian war. It's utterly useless,the russian ruble even rise to a new height in years.
The world have seen the utter cowardness of the west in ukraine war too. The whole west hide behind the borderline of the ukraine and their propaganda machine,don't even dare to provide the ukraine some tanks.
We have years to prepare the war,your sanctions would work even poorer than russia. Your navies wouldn't even dare to come close to taiwan due to our DF hypersonic missiles,you would have no means to provide weapons let alone fight for taiwan.

 

[Beast]

Good analysis.

Lol.. another white man masturbation.

Never trust a white man words....
They are good in coming up with delusion explanation to self satisfy their fantasy.

 

[DF41]

What bases will those F-22 F-35 be flying from?

As within 10 minutes prior to all out attack on Taiwan, the bases in Japan and Guam and Okinawa and Taiwan be figments of memories.


First Strike: China's Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases in Asia: Is This China's Real Threat to America?

Those bases will all be hit and cratered by DFs with conventional warheads so planes cannot take off.
Go into above to see photos of strikes made by Chinese on model setups in the Western desert of China that represent hardened bunkers for planes and runways and dock settings with models of Burkes and Ticos and the bases HQs to see the pin point targetting of the DFs.

Followed up within half hour by hundreds of Chinese cruise missiles to finish off what the DFs left and to add on to that.

USA carriers dare not get pass the 3rd Island Chain and become a turkey shoot from DF 26s DF 21s

Discounting the 3000++ Chinese AShCMs which include supersonics and hypersonics, there are 300++ DF21s DF26s

USA got 300 carriers?

Chinese will not care about F-22s F-35s

You heard of Suntze and his ART OF WAR.

Another book that Chinese go by that you should educate yourself

Thirty-Six Stratagems - Wikipedia​

en.wikipedia.org

Chapter 4: Melee Stratagems (混戰計, Hùnzhàn jì)[edit]​

Remove the firewood from under the pot (釜底抽薪, Fǔ dǐ chōu xīn)[edit]​

Take out the leading argument or asset of someone; "steal someone's thunder". This is the essence of the indirect approach: instead of attacking enemy's fighting forces, direct attacks against their ability to wage war. Literally, take the fuel out of the fire.

And why all the bases in Japan Okinawa Guam and Taiwan be taken out first.

Your precious F-22s F 35s need fleet of tankers and JSTARS and AWACs
Your tankers and JSTARS AWACs will all be splashed.

How China's Clever New Missile Could Cripple American Air Power
China's Mach 6 Monster Air-to-Air Missile Could Make the U.S. Air Force Come in for a ‘Crash Landing’

This is what USA Airforce Secretary got to say in 2018. And Chinese missiles improved vastly since 2018.

Air Force secretary: China, Russia could shoot down new JSTARS on day one of a war

Any time USA want to tango, China will tango with USA

A hit from Chinese AShCM will be sufficient for it to be over for any USA carrier.

Estimated China got 3000++ of AShCMs

But it is more likely Chinese be firing 100 such missiles at single USA carrier.

No shit about bulkheads and spaces to contain the hellfire that will likely engulf the entire carrier.


And not just the warhead, there will be 2–3 tons of missiles coming behind the warhead at Mach 3 tearing into the bulkheads and ordnance and aviation fuel and the poor men and women in the carrier. Those 2–3 tons of missile body will be tearing in the bulkheads faster and more deadly then APFSDS. Andf carrying its own unburned fuel to add to the fun.
Even steel will burn when hit with hell fire and tons of steel and debris coming in at Mach 3. The aviation fuel, and paint on walls, the bombs and ordnance will all cook off and add to the huge huge fire inside the carrier. Regardless if carrier under Condition Zebra or Donkey or Jackass.
The brave sailors in those carriers will not care or worry and be happy that their carrier not sinking. And only burning and burning from one end to the other end.

Chinese have about 3,000 of these kind of AShCMs.

In the form of Mach 3–4 YJ-12s carrying 400–500 semi shaped charge warheads, fired outside the AEGIS cover. The YJ-12 can also do evasive maneuvers to avoid anti-missile threats.

YJ-12 - Wikipedia

There is also the YJ-18 with reach exceeding Aegis cover. YJ-18 will start off at sub Mach 1. Until about 20 km from target , it will sprint at Mach 3–4 to deliver good news to the carrier .

China's YJ-18 Supersonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missile: America's Nightmare?

This Chinese description relates that the missile’s great strength is its “亚超结合的独特动力” [subsonic and supersonic combined unique propulsion]. Another term applied to this design is “双速制反舰导弹” [dual speed control ASCM]. As explained in the article, it is projected that YJ-18 would have an initial subsonic phase estimated at .8 Mach similar to the Klub of about 180km, but 20km from the target would unleash the supersonic sprint vehicle at speed of Mach 2.5 to 3. The “dual speed” function allows the system to realize certain advantages of subsonic cruise missiles, such as their “relatively long range, light weight and universality …” but also takes the chief advantage of supersonic ASCMs as well, namely the ability to “大幅压缩敌方的反应时间” [radically compress the enemy’s reaction time].

The Chinese article relates another advantage of the “dual speed” approach. Just as the missile comes into contact with the ship’s defenses, it “sheds the medium stage …,” thus simultaneously and dramatically altering both its speed and also its radar reflection, “which would impact the fire control calculation.” The likelihood that YJ-18 improves upon the Klub missile’s “digitization, automation, as well as providing more intelligent flight control and navigation technology” is attributed in the Chinese article to a recent Jane’s report.







Finally got a name.


Not DF-XX

This baby is call the YJ-21 , 鹰击-12 or Eagle Strike 21



https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/04/yj-21-chinas-new-anti-ship-missile-will-make-the-navy-sweat/



YJ21 in this video is not first testing in 055, The missile was fired during a normal training exercise.
It shows that YJ21 has already been massive equipped on the 055 destroyer.



WANG SUI WANG WANG SUI 萬歲 萬 萬歲

• https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/sink...-sea-to-ward-off-us-navy.738879/post-13689873
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https://eurasiantimes.com/china-plans-to-turn-its-satellites-into-spy-fighter-jets/

Shadowing F-22 Raptor – China Plans To Turn Its Low-Cost Satellites Into Spy Platforms That Can Even Track Fighter Jets​

By
Ashish Dangwal
-
April 8, 2022

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China is reportedly developing an advanced artificial intelligence system that could turn low-cost commercial satellites already orbiting the Earth into potent spy platforms. Reports suggest that it may have a success rate roughly seven times greater than existing technology.

Ukraine’s ‘Digital’ Soldiers Use British ‘Star’ Missile To Shoot-Down Russian Attack Chopper; Marks First Kill For UK MANPADs​

This system is being developed by Chinese military researchers, who say that it is capable of tracking moving objects as small as a car with extraordinary precision, reported Chinese media.
The challenge of distinguishing a target via satellite footage was illustrated in 2020 when a Chinese space company released a video clip taken by Jilin-1, a small satellite. The satellite was presumably pursuing a cruising fighter jet from an altitude of almost 500km (310 miles).

Changguang Satellite, the manufacturer of the Jilin-1 Satellite, released that footage, which was extensively shared on Chinese social media platforms. A fighter plane can be seen flying over the city in the video. The company also put a caption beneath the video, allowing internet users to identify the fighter’s type.

China’s satellite apparently captured high-speed flying fighter
Many internet users speculated that the fighter jet was most likely the US-made F-22 stealth fighter. Its horizontal tail and wing were similar to those of the F-22 fighter, leading to the assumption. This entire predicament was ostensibly the catalyst for the development of new technology. The plane in the video was approximately 20 meters (65 feet) in length.


The commercial satellite’s camera, which has a resolution of around 1-meter, would only produce a few pixels of the small target. It is even more difficult to recognize an object when there are fewer details in the image.
Since each frame of the satellite footage encompassed more than 10 square kilometers, a small target like a car could fade into the background or be confused with other cars. This will probably make tracking its path from orbit virtually impossible.

File Image: F-22 Raptor
The Chinese team claimed that its new AI technology had attained 95% precision in finding a small object in the videos recorded by Jilin-1, with a success rate approximately seven times greater than existing technology.

Hypersonic Air-Breathing Missile – America’s ‘Secretive’ HAWC Program Looks To End Russian Hegemony In Hypersonic Tech​

Lin Cunbao, a researcher from the People’s Liberation Army’s Space Engineering University in Beijing, and his colleagues made these claims.

The Issue With Existing Technology ​

Jilin-1 was China’s first commercial Earth observation satellite. It was launched on 7 October 2015. The Jilin-1 weighed less than 100kg, compared to standard spy satellites that carry a large telescope (220 pounds). It orbits the Earth at a low altitude, which allows it to achieve higher resolution. However, it can only stay over an area for a short time.
After the first Jilin satellite was launched, approximately 40 more joined the family to establish a global monitoring network capable of detecting a wide range of signals, from visible light to heat traces, at practically any time, anyplace.
In the near future, the constellation is projected to be expanded to 138 satellites, allowing for high-resolution imagery and considerable commercial service. Despite their strengths, Lin claims that most commercial satellites would be unable to pursue a small moving target due to technical limitations.

Chinese Remote sensing satellites – Chang Guang Satellite Technology via CGTN
A satellite video stream, which typically records roughly 15 frames per second, has a far lower resolution than a motionless picture taken by the same camera. Due to the obvious satellite’s high speed, practically everything in the video is moving, such as buildings and their shadows, leaving standard technologies built to identify motion against a fixed landscape less efficient.
The flexibility of vehicles on the ground to stop unexpectedly, make a quick turn, or move under a bridge or through a tunnel adds more complexity to the process. According to the researchers, even a well-trained AI program could lose track of its subject if half or all of an object vanishes.

How Will The New Technology Work? ​

Upon losing the target, the AI used to conclude it had got it wrong and input the negative information into the learning process, which would drastically lower its overall effectiveness.
Lin’s team claimed to have created a more trustworthy AI based on a traditional machine learning algorithm that had only obtained about 14% success in analyzing satellite video prior to the team’s improvements.
Additionally, When the target was temporarily hidden in the new iteration, the machine did not second-guess itself. Rather, based on previous experience, it would predict the target’s possible position and resume tracking along the path it anticipated the target would travel. The Chinese researchers claimed that the new technology could reclaim the target as soon as it resurfaced as a result of this system modification.

File Image: Chinese Space Station
Currently, visual data from the satellite must be relayed to a ground station or communication relay satellite nearby and analyzed by a powerful computer, resulting in a considerable time delay if the target is on the other side of the planet.
According to academics working in these initiatives, some new Chinese Earth observation satellites deployed in recent years contain processors that may be loaded with the newest AI algorithm to autonomously detect and track moving targets in real-time without any ground support.
China has made significant progress in space in recent years and is already working on other initiatives to broadcast high-definition video from orbit.
As previously reported by EurAsian Times, China will soon launch the Luojia-3 01 satellite which will test a novel technology that might provide smartphone users reasonably close access to high-definition cameras in space.
.


It will be even more easier to spot and track the movements of USA carriers and other naval assets as they move so much slower than F-22 Raptors.

Any naval assets of enemies of China can be so easily tracked and targetted for the DF-21s DF-26 and supersonic and hypersonic AShCMs to burn into and keep the sailors eternally young. Be those assets be on surface of water, and very likely, under the surface as well.

And China rest assured that USA protection cannot defend against a handful of subsonic drones and missiles in Saudi Arabia cannot defend against Chinese supersonic and hypersonic missiles.




WANG SUI WANG WANG SUI 萬歲 萬 萬歲

Talking about tracking, this video might amuse folks here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1038033917020786689

See how a Chinese satellite videoed and tracked a rocket taking off and then tracking that rocket.

Remember the satellite was moving and had to move or that not be a satellite. Knowing and tracking via radar will be so much easier than tracking and focusing via camera

Which then be messaged to supercomputer to direct the DF21Ds and DF 26 and the thousands of supersonic hypersonic AShCMs to send the good news to US carriers and whatever they got.

So USA can act macho macho strutting about in phony FONOPs .

And all on board knowing they living on borrowed time.

DON'T EVEN DARE TO THREATEN OR DREAM ABOUT USING NUKES ON CHINA WHEN YOUR CARRIERS ARE BURNING END TO END.


Go EDUCATE YOURSELF

CHINA MIGHT WELL BE THE ONLY COUNTRY WITH IMMEDIATELY DEPLOYABLE USABLE THERMO NUKES
AND IF USA WANT TO USE EVEN ONE NUKE

===================================================================================================

Sailing their carriers up and down in phony FONOPs.

And a great game to bully China for the fun of it.

And screaming if their carriers are touched, China will be in a big world of hurting.

As if Murica the only one with nukes and happy to toss them about like confetti.


And please do not talk of nukes. China might well be the only country
with fully functional H Bombs
Chinese H Bombs are done to the YuMing configuration requiring very little maintenance.
Muricans do their H bombs to the Ulam Teller configuration needing lots of maintenances.

Each warhead needs to have about 200 milligrams of fresh tritium added every year. Here’s a pic showing W80s having their gas changed.

How many Murican H Bombs can go kaboom immediately? Not many.


When China was still almost in stone age condition in 1960s, China still developed the Hydrogen Bomb 3.3 Mtons just 32 months in June 1967 after China first fission bomb. China was using teams of Chinese working away at abacus as they had no computers or even electronic calculators then.

We all know China is a lot more advanced since the mid 60s.

US intelligence projection made late in the 1960s that China would have 435 nuclear weapons by 1973.
Karber’s report mentioned that “PRC data in 1995 gave the figure at 2,350.”

We all know China is a lot more advanced since 1995.

Why You Should Fear China's Nuclear Weapons

Underground Great Wall of China - Wikipedia

And remember the DF5s and DF31AG as well. About 100 or more of them, mirving 10 nukes or more.
China has at least three brigades of DF-5 missiles. Assuming all three brigades have been modernized, that's 360 thermonuclear warheads with a half-megaton on each warhead.
3 brigades DF-5B ICBM x 12 missiles per brigade x 10 MIRVs per missile = 360 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-5B ICBMs

DF-5B got throw weight of 5,000 kgs
In 2017, China successfully completed tests of DF-5C. Presumably with greater throw weight and greater accuracy in targetting.

7 brigades DF-31A ICBM (since 2007 introduction and adding one brigade per year) x 12 missiles per brigade x 3 MIRVs = 252 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-31A ICBMs (assuming NO RELOAD missile per TEL; if you assume ONE reload missile per TEL then you double the number of warheads to 504 thermonuclear warheads).

Since then, China tested and got operational DF31AG and DF31B. Obviously able to throw more warheads than the DF31A. The DF31s are solid fuel and can fire within 3 to 5 minutes.

And the H-6K bombers. H-6K can carry up to six YJ-12 and 6-7 ALCMs; and air launched missiles (CH-AS-X-13)
As at 2015, there are 15 numbers of H-6Ks, and 150 numbers of assorted H-6s.
Using just H-6Ks, there will be need for 15X10 , or 150 thermonuclear bombs.
2015 is 5 years ago. You can be sure there will be even more numbers of H-6K, and even more advanced bombers being build by China.

DF-41 - Wikipedia

The Dong Feng 41 (CSS-X-10) is a road- and rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The DF-41 completed all testing stages and deployed in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since 2017. It is estimated to have an operational range of 12,000 to 15,000 km, which would make it the longest range missile in operation. It will likely have a top speed of Mach 25 and will be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed warheads. Throw weight of DF-41 is 2,500 kg.

The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile reported to have a maximum range of up to 15,000 kilometers (more than 9320 miles) and a top speed of Mach 25 (19,030 mph). It is said to be capable of carrying up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVs). Its launch preparation time is estimated to be between 3 to 5 minutes.

This would make the DF-41 the world's longest range missile, surpassing the range of the US LGM-30 Minuteman which has a reported range of 13,000 km. Throw weight of LGM-30 is only 1000kg or just 3 numbers of 170kton nukes. USA UGM-133 Trident II throw weight is only 2,800 kg.



Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
How many brigades of DF-41 since 2017 number of 4 brigades?
6 Brigades or 8 Brigades?

Reported DF-41 Deployment: China 'Responding to US Missile Defense in Asia'
Expert: DF-41 among most advanced missiles in the world


If China got only 260 thermonukes like what everyone is saying and hoping, the surplus warheads will be delivering dim sum and tea bags and cleaned pressed laundry from Chinese laundrymen.

Please remember DF-41 got a very big brother coming up as well in case you think DF-41 not worthy enough to deliver dim sum and tea bags and cleaned laundry.
Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload, rated as the most dangerous ICBM . Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads. Sarmat will be dwarfed by Chinese new missile with even larger twenty-ton payload. That will be solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV), and could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.
The Next China Military Threat: The World's Biggest Mobile ICBM?


SSBNs
Type 094 Jin Class SSBN

Currently 6 of type 094 but projected to be 8 in years to come.
Carrying 12 numbers of JL-2, mirving 3–4 thermonuclear warheads.
Or 288 nuclear warheads

Type 096 Tang Class SSBN
This is similar to Ohio Class

Carrying 24 JL-3 missiles , each mirving 5–7 warheads.
Currently, 6 numbers of 096 SSBNs are being build simultaneously.
Using 6x24x5, we have 720 thermonuclear warheads.

Or at least 1000 nukes can be delivered by China.
Or the warheads delivered are empty. Or used to deliver dim sums, General Tso chicken, wulung tea bags and cleaned laundry by Chink laundrymen, express delivery.

If China is ever turned into a nuclear wasteland, those that send nukes into China will be nuked into glowing and molten multicolored wasteland.

China promised never to use the first nuke. But if just one nuke land on China or her forces, ALL THE USA BASES FROM EUROPE, DIEGO GARCIA , SINGAPORE . JAPAN AND USA HERSELF WILL BE SEAS AND LAKES OF MOLTEN MULTI COLOR GLASS.
None of the USA carriers will be spared. The carriers will be taken out with nukes even if the carriers hide in Frisco Bay or in the Atlantic Ocean or any other ocean.

And as demonstrated so clearly in KSA a few days ago, the Aegis and Patriot systems defending Saudi a joke as the Aegis and Patriot cannot even detect a few sub Mach cruise missiles not to talk of taking them down. Even to now, no one sure where those came from and who flown them. Despite overlapping coverage of those Patriot and Aegis systems.
New sales pitch? US makes the world’s ‘finest’ anti-air systems, but sometimes they just don’t work, Pompeo explains
Saudi air defenses like Patriot & Aegis don’t match their advertised properties, unfit for real combat – Russian Army (MAP)

How will the Patriot systems in USA defend against ICBMs coming in at speed of Mach 25 when they cannot even detect missiles at sub Mach or even know where the missiles came from despite overlapping coverage?

Allies of the country that nuke China will not go unpunished as well. Whether they could not stop USA or do not want to stop USA or USA do not want to listen to them will be irrelevant to China.
A nuked China will be very very weak. And China recalled the days where the British and French and Japan and USA came to carve her up when China was weak.
China will not allow that to happen again. China will ensure those countries will be weaker than a nuked China, or exist only in name after a nuked China

So please let peace prevail and it is irrelevant whether you think China only got 260 nukes
The lucky ones will be those that die in the first micro second.
Those still alive a year later will wish they gone at the very beginning.

And why the war fought or even started, no one will give a flying **** as to the reasons.

Even so, China never ever threatened to use nukes. Other than if nuke used on China, China will retaliate and use nukes as well.

So please be peaceful and respectful and more courtesy, and no more phony FONOPs and playing games of who will blink with China with phony FONOPs. Do not play with fire regarding Taiwan. AND DO NOT THREATEN TO NUKE CHINA.

 

[kankan326]

If EU dares to join in the war with US, China can send troops to Russia. And with Russia together conquer all EU countries. EU countries may think they are safe to declare war to China because of the far distance. They are not.

 

[Brainsucker]

What bases will those F-22 F-35 be flying from?

As within 10 minutes prior to all out attack on Taiwan, the bases in Japan and Guam and Okinawa and Taiwan be figments of memories.


First Strike: China's Missile Threat to U.S. Bases in Asia

Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases in Asia: Is This China's Real Threat to America?

Those bases will all be hit and cratered by DFs with conventional warheads so planes cannot take off.
Go into above to see photos of strikes made by Chinese on model setups in the Western desert of China that represent hardened bunkers for planes and runways and dock settings with models of Burkes and Ticos and the bases HQs to see the pin point targetting of the DFs.

Followed up within half hour by hundreds of Chinese cruise missiles to finish off what the DFs left and to add on to that.

USA carriers dare not get pass the 3rd Island Chain and become a turkey shoot from DF 26s DF 21s

Discounting the 3000++ Chinese AShCMs which include supersonics and hypersonics, there are 300++ DF21s DF26s

USA got 300 carriers?

Chinese will not care about F-22s F-35s

You heard of Suntze and his ART OF WAR.

Another book that Chinese go by that you should educate yourself

Thirty-Six Stratagems - Wikipedia​

en.wikipedia.org

Chapter 4: Melee Stratagems (混戰計, Hùnzhàn jì)[edit]​

Remove the firewood from under the pot (釜底抽薪, Fǔ dǐ chōu xīn)[edit]​

Take out the leading argument or asset of someone; "steal someone's thunder". This is the essence of the indirect approach: instead of attacking enemy's fighting forces, direct attacks against their ability to wage war. Literally, take the fuel out of the fire.

And why all the bases in Japan Okinawa Guam and Taiwan be taken out first.

Your precious F-22s F 35s need fleet of tankers and JSTARS and AWACs
Your tankers and JSTARS AWACs will all be splashed.

How China's Clever New Missile Could Cripple American Air Power
China's Mach 6 Monster Air-to-Air Missile Could Make the U.S. Air Force Come in for a ‘Crash Landing’

This is what USA Airforce Secretary got to say in 2018. And Chinese missiles improved vastly since 2018.

Air Force secretary: China, Russia could shoot down new JSTARS on day one of a war

Any time USA want to tango, China will tango with USA

A hit from Chinese AShCM will be sufficient for it to be over for any USA carrier.

Estimated China got 3000++ of AShCMs

But it is more likely Chinese be firing 100 such missiles at single USA carrier.

No shit about bulkheads and spaces to contain the hellfire that will likely engulf the entire carrier.


And not just the warhead, there will be 2–3 tons of missiles coming behind the warhead at Mach 3 tearing into the bulkheads and ordnance and aviation fuel and the poor men and women in the carrier. Those 2–3 tons of missile body will be tearing in the bulkheads faster and more deadly then APFSDS. Andf carrying its own unburned fuel to add to the fun.
Even steel will burn when hit with hell fire and tons of steel and debris coming in at Mach 3. The aviation fuel, and paint on walls, the bombs and ordnance will all cook off and add to the huge huge fire inside the carrier. Regardless if carrier under Condition Zebra or Donkey or Jackass.
The brave sailors in those carriers will not care or worry and be happy that their carrier not sinking. And only burning and burning from one end to the other end.

Chinese have about 3,000 of these kind of AShCMs.

In the form of Mach 3–4 YJ-12s carrying 400–500 semi shaped charge warheads, fired outside the AEGIS cover. The YJ-12 can also do evasive maneuvers to avoid anti-missile threats.

YJ-12 - Wikipedia

There is also the YJ-18 with reach exceeding Aegis cover. YJ-18 will start off at sub Mach 1. Until about 20 km from target , it will sprint at Mach 3–4 to deliver good news to the carrier .

China's YJ-18 Supersonic Anti-Ship Cruise Missile: America's Nightmare?

This Chinese description relates that the missile’s great strength is its “亚超结合的独特动力” [subsonic and supersonic combined unique propulsion]. Another term applied to this design is “双速制反舰导弹” [dual speed control ASCM]. As explained in the article, it is projected that YJ-18 would have an initial subsonic phase estimated at .8 Mach similar to the Klub of about 180km, but 20km from the target would unleash the supersonic sprint vehicle at speed of Mach 2.5 to 3. The “dual speed” function allows the system to realize certain advantages of subsonic cruise missiles, such as their “relatively long range, light weight and universality …” but also takes the chief advantage of supersonic ASCMs as well, namely the ability to “大幅压缩敌方的反应时间” [radically compress the enemy’s reaction time].

The Chinese article relates another advantage of the “dual speed” approach. Just as the missile comes into contact with the ship’s defenses, it “sheds the medium stage …,” thus simultaneously and dramatically altering both its speed and also its radar reflection, “which would impact the fire control calculation.” The likelihood that YJ-18 improves upon the Klub missile’s “digitization, automation, as well as providing more intelligent flight control and navigation technology” is attributed in the Chinese article to a recent Jane’s report.







Finally got a name.


Not DF-XX

This baby is call the YJ-21 , 鹰击-12 or Eagle Strike 21



https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/04/yj-21-chinas-new-anti-ship-missile-will-make-the-navy-sweat/



YJ21 in this video is not first testing in 055, The missile was fired during a normal training exercise.
It shows that YJ21 has already been massive equipped on the 055 destroyer.



WANG SUI WANG WANG SUI 萬歲 萬 萬歲

• https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/sink...-sea-to-ward-off-us-navy.738879/post-13689873
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https://eurasiantimes.com/china-plans-to-turn-its-satellites-into-spy-fighter-jets/

Shadowing F-22 Raptor – China Plans To Turn Its Low-Cost Satellites Into Spy Platforms That Can Even Track Fighter Jets​

By
Ashish Dangwal
-
April 8, 2022

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China is reportedly developing an advanced artificial intelligence system that could turn low-cost commercial satellites already orbiting the Earth into potent spy platforms. Reports suggest that it may have a success rate roughly seven times greater than existing technology.

This system is being developed by Chinese military researchers, who say that it is capable of tracking moving objects as small as a car with extraordinary precision, reported Chinese media.
The challenge of distinguishing a target via satellite footage was illustrated in 2020 when a Chinese space company released a video clip taken by Jilin-1, a small satellite. The satellite was presumably pursuing a cruising fighter jet from an altitude of almost 500km (310 miles).

Changguang Satellite, the manufacturer of the Jilin-1 Satellite, released that footage, which was extensively shared on Chinese social media platforms. A fighter plane can be seen flying over the city in the video. The company also put a caption beneath the video, allowing internet users to identify the fighter’s type.

China’s satellite apparently captured high-speed flying fighter
Many internet users speculated that the fighter jet was most likely the US-made F-22 stealth fighter. Its horizontal tail and wing were similar to those of the F-22 fighter, leading to the assumption. This entire predicament was ostensibly the catalyst for the development of new technology. The plane in the video was approximately 20 meters (65 feet) in length.


The commercial satellite’s camera, which has a resolution of around 1-meter, would only produce a few pixels of the small target. It is even more difficult to recognize an object when there are fewer details in the image.
Since each frame of the satellite footage encompassed more than 10 square kilometers, a small target like a car could fade into the background or be confused with other cars. This will probably make tracking its path from orbit virtually impossible.

File Image: F-22 Raptor
The Chinese team claimed that its new AI technology had attained 95% precision in finding a small object in the videos recorded by Jilin-1, with a success rate approximately seven times greater than existing technology.

Lin Cunbao, a researcher from the People’s Liberation Army’s Space Engineering University in Beijing, and his colleagues made these claims.

The Issue With Existing Technology ​

Jilin-1 was China’s first commercial Earth observation satellite. It was launched on 7 October 2015. The Jilin-1 weighed less than 100kg, compared to standard spy satellites that carry a large telescope (220 pounds). It orbits the Earth at a low altitude, which allows it to achieve higher resolution. However, it can only stay over an area for a short time.
After the first Jilin satellite was launched, approximately 40 more joined the family to establish a global monitoring network capable of detecting a wide range of signals, from visible light to heat traces, at practically any time, anyplace.
In the near future, the constellation is projected to be expanded to 138 satellites, allowing for high-resolution imagery and considerable commercial service. Despite their strengths, Lin claims that most commercial satellites would be unable to pursue a small moving target due to technical limitations.

Chinese Remote sensing satellites – Chang Guang Satellite Technology via CGTN
A satellite video stream, which typically records roughly 15 frames per second, has a far lower resolution than a motionless picture taken by the same camera. Due to the obvious satellite’s high speed, practically everything in the video is moving, such as buildings and their shadows, leaving standard technologies built to identify motion against a fixed landscape less efficient.
The flexibility of vehicles on the ground to stop unexpectedly, make a quick turn, or move under a bridge or through a tunnel adds more complexity to the process. According to the researchers, even a well-trained AI program could lose track of its subject if half or all of an object vanishes.

How Will The New Technology Work? ​

Upon losing the target, the AI used to conclude it had got it wrong and input the negative information into the learning process, which would drastically lower its overall effectiveness.
Lin’s team claimed to have created a more trustworthy AI based on a traditional machine learning algorithm that had only obtained about 14% success in analyzing satellite video prior to the team’s improvements.
Additionally, When the target was temporarily hidden in the new iteration, the machine did not second-guess itself. Rather, based on previous experience, it would predict the target’s possible position and resume tracking along the path it anticipated the target would travel. The Chinese researchers claimed that the new technology could reclaim the target as soon as it resurfaced as a result of this system modification.

File Image: Chinese Space Station
Currently, visual data from the satellite must be relayed to a ground station or communication relay satellite nearby and analyzed by a powerful computer, resulting in a considerable time delay if the target is on the other side of the planet.
According to academics working in these initiatives, some new Chinese Earth observation satellites deployed in recent years contain processors that may be loaded with the newest AI algorithm to autonomously detect and track moving targets in real-time without any ground support.
China has made significant progress in space in recent years and is already working on other initiatives to broadcast high-definition video from orbit.
As previously reported by EurAsian Times, China will soon launch the Luojia-3 01 satellite which will test a novel technology that might provide smartphone users reasonably close access to high-definition cameras in space.
.


It will be even more easier to spot and track the movements of USA carriers and other naval assets as they move so much slower than F-22 Raptors.

Any naval assets of enemies of China can be so easily tracked and targetted for the DF-21s DF-26 and supersonic and hypersonic AShCMs to burn into and keep the sailors eternally young. Be those assets be on surface of water, and very likely, under the surface as well.

And China rest assured that USA protection cannot defend against a handful of subsonic drones and missiles in Saudi Arabia cannot defend against Chinese supersonic and hypersonic missiles.




WANG SUI WANG WANG SUI 萬歲 萬 萬歲

Talking about tracking, this video might amuse folks here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1038033917020786689

See how a Chinese satellite videoed and tracked a rocket taking off and then tracking that rocket.

Remember the satellite was moving and had to move or that not be a satellite. Knowing and tracking via radar will be so much easier than tracking and focusing via camera

Which then be messaged to supercomputer to direct the DF21Ds and DF 26 and the thousands of supersonic hypersonic AShCMs to send the good news to US carriers and whatever they got.

So USA can act macho macho strutting about in phony FONOPs .

And all on board knowing they living on borrowed time.

DON'T EVEN DARE TO THREATEN OR DREAM ABOUT USING NUKES ON CHINA WHEN YOUR CARRIERS ARE BURNING END TO END.


Go EDUCATE YOURSELF

CHINA MIGHT WELL BE THE ONLY COUNTRY WITH IMMEDIATELY DEPLOYABLE USABLE THERMO NUKES
AND IF USA WANT TO USE EVEN ONE NUKE

===================================================================================================

Sailing their carriers up and down in phony FONOPs.

And a great game to bully China for the fun of it.

And screaming if their carriers are touched, China will be in a big world of hurting.

As if Murica the only one with nukes and happy to toss them about like confetti.


And please do not talk of nukes. China might well be the only country
with fully functional H Bombs
Chinese H Bombs are done to the YuMing configuration requiring very little maintenance.
Muricans do their H bombs to the Ulam Teller configuration needing lots of maintenances.

Each warhead needs to have about 200 milligrams of fresh tritium added every year. Here’s a pic showing W80s having their gas changed.

How many Murican H Bombs can go kaboom immediately? Not many.


When China was still almost in stone age condition in 1960s, China still developed the Hydrogen Bomb 3.3 Mtons just 32 months in June 1967 after China first fission bomb. China was using teams of Chinese working away at abacus as they had no computers or even electronic calculators then.

We all know China is a lot more advanced since the mid 60s.

US intelligence projection made late in the 1960s that China would have 435 nuclear weapons by 1973.
Karber’s report mentioned that “PRC data in 1995 gave the figure at 2,350.”

We all know China is a lot more advanced since 1995.

Why You Should Fear China's Nuclear Weapons

Underground Great Wall of China - Wikipedia

And remember the DF5s and DF31AG as well. About 100 or more of them, mirving 10 nukes or more.
China has at least three brigades of DF-5 missiles. Assuming all three brigades have been modernized, that's 360 thermonuclear warheads with a half-megaton on each warhead.
3 brigades DF-5B ICBM x 12 missiles per brigade x 10 MIRVs per missile = 360 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-5B ICBMs

DF-5B got throw weight of 5,000 kgs
In 2017, China successfully completed tests of DF-5C. Presumably with greater throw weight and greater accuracy in targetting.

7 brigades DF-31A ICBM (since 2007 introduction and adding one brigade per year) x 12 missiles per brigade x 3 MIRVs = 252 thermonuclear warheads carried on DF-31A ICBMs (assuming NO RELOAD missile per TEL; if you assume ONE reload missile per TEL then you double the number of warheads to 504 thermonuclear warheads).

Since then, China tested and got operational DF31AG and DF31B. Obviously able to throw more warheads than the DF31A. The DF31s are solid fuel and can fire within 3 to 5 minutes.

And the H-6K bombers. H-6K can carry up to six YJ-12 and 6-7 ALCMs; and air launched missiles (CH-AS-X-13)
As at 2015, there are 15 numbers of H-6Ks, and 150 numbers of assorted H-6s.
Using just H-6Ks, there will be need for 15X10 , or 150 thermonuclear bombs.
2015 is 5 years ago. You can be sure there will be even more numbers of H-6K, and even more advanced bombers being build by China.

DF-41 - Wikipedia

The Dong Feng 41 (CSS-X-10) is a road- and rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The DF-41 completed all testing stages and deployed in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) since 2017. It is estimated to have an operational range of 12,000 to 15,000 km, which would make it the longest range missile in operation. It will likely have a top speed of Mach 25 and will be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed warheads. Throw weight of DF-41 is 2,500 kg.

The DF-41 is a three-stage solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile reported to have a maximum range of up to 15,000 kilometers (more than 9320 miles) and a top speed of Mach 25 (19,030 mph). It is said to be capable of carrying up to 10 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVs). Its launch preparation time is estimated to be between 3 to 5 minutes.

This would make the DF-41 the world's longest range missile, surpassing the range of the US LGM-30 Minuteman which has a reported range of 13,000 km. Throw weight of LGM-30 is only 1000kg or just 3 numbers of 170kton nukes. USA UGM-133 Trident II throw weight is only 2,800 kg.



Four brigades of DF-41 ICBMs (Heilongjiang, Henan, Xinjiang, and Tibet Provinces) with one re-load per DF-41 TEL yields 96 total DF-41 ICBMs.
How many brigades of DF-41 since 2017 number of 4 brigades?
6 Brigades or 8 Brigades?

Reported DF-41 Deployment: China 'Responding to US Missile Defense in Asia'
Expert: DF-41 among most advanced missiles in the world


If China got only 260 thermonukes like what everyone is saying and hoping, the surplus warheads will be delivering dim sum and tea bags and cleaned pressed laundry from Chinese laundrymen.

Please remember DF-41 got a very big brother coming up as well in case you think DF-41 not worthy enough to deliver dim sum and tea bags and cleaned laundry.
Russia’s RS-28 “Sarmat” ten-ton payload, rated as the most dangerous ICBM . Reportedly it may carry up to fifteen 350 kiloton warheads, or up to twenty-four of the new “Avangard” nuclear-armed Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) warheads. Sarmat will be dwarfed by Chinese new missile with even larger twenty-ton payload. That will be solid-fuel space-launch vehicle (SLV), and could form the basis for what might become the world’s largest “mobile” ICBM.
The Next China Military Threat: The World's Biggest Mobile ICBM?


SSBNs
Type 094 Jin Class SSBN

Currently 6 of type 094 but projected to be 8 in years to come.
Carrying 12 numbers of JL-2, mirving 3–4 thermonuclear warheads.
Or 288 nuclear warheads

Type 096 Tang Class SSBN
This is similar to Ohio Class

Carrying 24 JL-3 missiles , each mirving 5–7 warheads.
Currently, 6 numbers of 096 SSBNs are being build simultaneously.
Using 6x24x5, we have 720 thermonuclear warheads.

Or at least 1000 nukes can be delivered by China.
Or the warheads delivered are empty. Or used to deliver dim sums, General Tso chicken, wulung tea bags and cleaned laundry by Chink laundrymen, express delivery.

If China is ever turned into a nuclear wasteland, those that send nukes into China will be nuked into glowing and molten multicolored wasteland.

China promised never to use the first nuke. But if just one nuke land on China or her forces, ALL THE USA BASES FROM EUROPE, DIEGO GARCIA , SINGAPORE . JAPAN AND USA HERSELF WILL BE SEAS AND LAKES OF MOLTEN MULTI COLOR GLASS.
None of the USA carriers will be spared. The carriers will be taken out with nukes even if the carriers hide in Frisco Bay or in the Atlantic Ocean or any other ocean.

And as demonstrated so clearly in KSA a few days ago, the Aegis and Patriot systems defending Saudi a joke as the Aegis and Patriot cannot even detect a few sub Mach cruise missiles not to talk of taking them down. Even to now, no one sure where those came from and who flown them. Despite overlapping coverage of those Patriot and Aegis systems.
New sales pitch? US makes the world’s ‘finest’ anti-air systems, but sometimes they just don’t work, Pompeo explains
Saudi air defenses like Patriot & Aegis don’t match their advertised properties, unfit for real combat – Russian Army (MAP)

How will the Patriot systems in USA defend against ICBMs coming in at speed of Mach 25 when they cannot even detect missiles at sub Mach or even know where the missiles came from despite overlapping coverage?

Allies of the country that nuke China will not go unpunished as well. Whether they could not stop USA or do not want to stop USA or USA do not want to listen to them will be irrelevant to China.
A nuked China will be very very weak. And China recalled the days where the British and French and Japan and USA came to carve her up when China was weak.
China will not allow that to happen again. China will ensure those countries will be weaker than a nuked China, or exist only in name after a nuked China

So please let peace prevail and it is irrelevant whether you think China only got 260 nukes
The lucky ones will be those that die in the first micro second.
Those still alive a year later will wish they gone at the very beginning.

And why the war fought or even started, no one will give a flying **** as to the reasons.

Even so, China never ever threatened to use nukes. Other than if nuke used on China, China will retaliate and use nukes as well.

So please be peaceful and respectful and more courtesy, and no more phony FONOPs and playing games of who will blink with China with phony FONOPs. Do not play with fire regarding Taiwan. AND DO NOT THREATEN TO NUKE CHINA.

Interesting reading. But wow, you really have soooo much free time to make this. Also, you remind me to someone "FROM" North Korea who behave like yourself some years ago.

Just my suggestion, if you really want to become a professional military analyst, spend your time to make more useful article. Do more research, you can write your own article here in this forum to get some recognition from the mod like Jhungary, and when you have some recognition from people, you can become like Deino; write a book and publish them in China. Be sure to make a proper analyst rather than write utter gibberish hyper nationalist post like this. To do that you have to really understand your stuff. If you're not have any plan to join PLA, then learn from them. Seek a connection with them. Maybe someday I'll become your customer and buy one of your book and read it with heart content.

Why do I suggest you like this? Because I see that you like to write. Specially in term of military stuff. So maybe you have some talent to become like Deino. As long as you put your heart into it, and become professional in this expertise. But first, put aside your ultra nationalist minded to clear your mind first.

I'm believe that PLA has the capability to take over Taiwan in short time militarily. Just like what they claim. But nobody know how they'll do it. In this world only Xi and PLA highest commands know their plan. And I'm sure that there is not only 1 methods, but many. They should have multiple scenarios planned. and those scenarios will change many time. The blueprints won't be such a fixed scenario, because that plan will based on the newest situation on the field. For example, the increasing number of American military activity near Taiwan, the new Russian- Ukrainian (Proxy war between Russia and NATO war) that happen today, etc.

 

[FuturePAF]

Something many people are not taking about but will probably be an increasing part of any calculation is all the unmanned platforms; not just aerial drones (which will probably included unmanned stealth attack helicopters) and unmanned ships like USS Ranger and USS Nomad dropping off swarms of unmanned tanks (in the first wave of any landing) like the Ripsaw M5

Swarms of unmanned, disposable, and AI enabled platforms could supplement long range rocket artillery to take out fixed and emerging targets; providing a cover for thousands of PLA Helicopters; where air assault troops land making way for an amphibious landing by the hundreds of thousands each day.

Dozens of AI enabled unmanned submarines would probably be used to keep the straits secure from foreign interference.

Losing tens of thousands of drones in the first waves would be infinitely more socially acceptable then losing tens of thousands of troops.

AI will also synchronize C2 for any PLA invasion. With AI handing off targeting data to the nearest (manned or unmanned) assets to knock out popup threats as soon as they are detected. This will cut back on the need to plan or even order troops to take out targets. It will a “man in the loop” environment, but could even become fully autonomous in free fire zone to shorten the OODA loop as much as possible, such as in ASW.

 

[Brainsucker]

Something many people are not taking about but will probably be an increasing part of any calculation is all the unmanned platforms; not just aerial drones (which will probably included unmanned stealth attack helicopters) and unmanned ships like USS Ranger and USS Nomad dropping off swarms of unmanned tanks (in the first wave of any landing) like the Ripsaw M5

Swarms of unmanned, disposable, and AI enabled platforms could supplement long range rocket artillery to take out fixed and emerging targets; providing a cover for thousands of PLA Helicopters; where air assault troops land making way for an amphibious landing by the hundreds of thousands each day.

Dozens of AI enabled unmanned submarines would probably be used to keep the straits secure from foreign interference.

Losing tens of thousands of drones in the first waves would be infinitely more socially acceptable then losing tens of thousands of troops.

AI will also synchronize C2 for any PLA invasion. With AI handing off targeting data to the nearest (manned or unmanned) assets to knock out popup threats as soon as they are detected. This will cut back on the need to plan or even order troops to take out targets. It will a “man in the loop” environment, but could even become fully autonomous in free fire zone to shorten the OODA loop as much as possible, such as in ASW.

Well, interesting. But you also seem to forget another parts that can become vital in the war between China and Taiwan. The war won't only evolve China, US (and their Allies) and Taiwan military assets, but also other assets. Like civilians, para military, etc.

You have to remember PLA history from the beginning of their existence (since Zhu De and his units rebelled against ROC and form the first CPC rebellion, to World War 2, to 1947 war between KMT vs CPC, to how they capture Hainan island. PLA has a different military history to their western counter part. And even with that, historically they could match American military capability in Korea War.

We can also see the effectiveness of PLA military operation by learning from how they operate against India previously in Galwan last year. From their logistic capability, rapid movement and deployment method, upgrading weapons and facilities, research, weapon experimenting, new weapon profession training, engineering capability, facilities build up, etc. What I can see from their capability is "VERY EFFECTIVE" compared to Indian more traditional military deployment method. It doesn't mean that Indian are not capable. But what PLA did in there was so revolutionary. They practically have conquered Himalayan mountain. And move freely via those mountainous regions like nothing. And can amass their troops from Xinjiang, Tibet, and even central plains in a very rapid deployment time.

Only with those matters combined / packed into one matter, we can learn on how PLA will behave when they start to invade Taiwan.

Remember, if they can conquer Himalaya Mountainous regions, then they should be able to conquer a 400 km Taiwan Strait for their military deployment to Taiwan.

 

[FuturePAF]

Well, interesting. But you also seem to forget another parts that can become vital in the war between China and Taiwan. The war won't only evolve China, US (and their Allies) and Taiwan military assets, but also other assets. Like civilians, para military, etc.

You have to remember PLA history from the beginning of their existence (since Zhu De and his units rebelled against ROC and form the first CPC rebellion, to World War 2, to 1947 war between KMT vs CPC, to how they capture Hainan island. PLA has a different military history to their western counter part. And even with that, historically they could match American military capability in Korea War.

We can also see the effectiveness of PLA military operation by learning from how they operate against India previously in Galwan last year. From their logistic capability, rapid movement and deployment method, upgrading weapons and facilities, research, weapon experimenting, new weapon profession training, engineering capability, facilities build up, etc. What I can see from their capability is "VERY EFFECTIVE" compared to Indian more traditional military deployment method. It doesn't mean that Indian are not capable. But what PLA did in there was so revolutionary. They practically have conquered Himalayan mountain. And move freely via those mountainous regions like nothing. And can amass their troops from Xinjiang, Tibet, and even central plains in a very rapid deployment time.

Only with those matters combined / packed into one matter, we can learn on how PLA will behave when they start to invade Taiwan.

Remember, if they can conquer Himalaya Mountainous regions, then they should be able to conquer a 400 km Taiwan Strait for their military deployment to Taiwan.

But just like Ukraine, the Taiwanese will have C4ISR help from over the horizon and possibly resupply if possible (air drops during a lull in the fighting if possible way)

For th a Indians losing even hundreds of square kilometers of uninhabited land is shameful but not decisive. But for the Taiwanese they will have to fight like the Ukrainians to hold on to self-rule. If the PLA establishes a beachhead and can continuously reinforce it for at least a week, the PLA will then be able to have the momentum to steam role the Taiwanese. It’s something the Taiwanese will fight tooth and nail to prevent.

The signs of a real possible PLA move to control Taiwan is China building up massive numbers of troop transports; by sea and by air. If we see tens of thousands of landing crafts and thousands of helicopters and hundreds of troops transport planes (like the Y-20) being built then it will become more of a possibility, otherwise it’s just rhetoric to maintain military and societal morale.

 

[Brainsucker]

But just like Ukraine, the Taiwanese will have C4ISR help from over the horizon and possibly resupply if possible (air drops during a lull in the fighting if possible way)

For th a Indians losing even hundreds of square kilometers of uninhabited land is shameful but not decisive. But for the Taiwanese they will have to fight like the Ukrainians to hold on to self-rule. If the PLA establishes a beachhead and can continuously reinforce it for at least a week, the PLA will then be able to have the momentum to steam role the Taiwanese. It’s something the Taiwanese will fight tooth and nail to prevent.

The signs of a real possible PLA move to control Taiwan is China building up massive numbers of troop transports; by sea and by air. If we see tens of thousands of landing crafts and thousands of helicopters and hundreds of troops transport planes (like the Y-20) being built then it will become more of a possibility, otherwise it’s just rhetoric to maintain military and societal morale.

Then you fail to understand what I write in my previous post.

1st. Read PLA history from their very beginning of existence.
2nd. Learn their new capability that they showed in Aksai Chin.

And then you understand what I mean.

 

[DF41]

If EU dares to join in the war with US, China can send troops to Russia. And with Russia together conquer all EU countries. EU countries may think they are safe to declare war to China because of the far distance. They are not.

 

[jhungary]

Something many people are not taking about but will probably be an increasing part of any calculation is all the unmanned platforms; not just aerial drones (which will probably included unmanned stealth attack helicopters) and unmanned ships like USS Ranger and USS Nomad dropping off swarms of unmanned tanks (in the first wave of any landing) like the Ripsaw M5

Swarms of unmanned, disposable, and AI enabled platforms could supplement long range rocket artillery to take out fixed and emerging targets; providing a cover for thousands of PLA Helicopters; where air assault troops land making way for an amphibious landing by the hundreds of thousands each day.

Dozens of AI enabled unmanned submarines would probably be used to keep the straits secure from foreign interference.

Losing tens of thousands of drones in the first waves would be infinitely more socially acceptable then losing tens of thousands of troops.

AI will also synchronize C2 for any PLA invasion. With AI handing off targeting data to the nearest (manned or unmanned) assets to knock out popup threats as soon as they are detected. This will cut back on the need to plan or even order troops to take out targets. It will a “man in the loop” environment, but could even become fully autonomous in free fire zone to shorten the OODA loop as much as possible, such as in ASW.

Drone are what we called "Passive" system, it tagged with your intelligence gathering capability. Because it is unmanned, without an expanded "Intelligence" Network to chart the progress, unmanned drone are second to useless.

The reason why Ukraine can use their drone so effectively is mostly because of 2 things. NATO feeding intelligence to them and local intelligence. There are ways for Ukrainian civilian to pass Russian troop info back to the Ukrainian command so they can launch drone strike against those target. NATO also have an extensive intelligence network combine the 4 core systems, HUMINT, SATINT, OSINT and SIGINT. I am pretty sure NATO have more battlefield awareness in Ukraine than either Russia or Ukrainian. That is why the Ukrainian know where to send their drone and how to attack their target.

On the other hand, how much intel can China gather from Taiwan is unknown. Not much was known from the Chinese Intelligence capability to the outside, most likely because they don't do much other than launching espionage ops rather than intel gathering ops. But on the other hand, Drone is a tactical tool, which mean you can probably target command and communication structure or something you need to prioritised, but it would never offset the balance because professional soldier fight on even without command present. Which mean drone could help, but not going to be much to alleviate the pressure of the first wave. This is still going to be a bloodbath on the first couple of wave.

 

[FuturePAF]

Then you fail to understand what I write in my previous post.

1st. Read PLA history from their very beginning of existence.
2nd. Learn their new capability that they showed in Aksai Chin.

And then you understand what I mean.

Just went back to re-read that post; are you saying that China will employ a whole of population approach; a kind of “people’s war” concept to out-supply and out-build the enemy into overwhelming the enemy into submission?

Did I understand correctly?

If so, that maybe true, but the PLA will want to minimize casualties and use as many drones as possible, as well as build up its infrastructure, logistics, and equipment (and spares) well in advance of any battle/war.