How close is Pakistan to default

[epebble]

Very close....80 % chances. Only 4.2B $ have materialised from Dar-o-nomics claim of 16B$ have been arranged!!!

Those high numbers (80%) may not mean much.

Explainer: Is CDS an accurate indicator of default risk?​

Explainer: Is CDS an accurate indicator of default risk?

A message relayed on the WhatsApp broadcast of a brokerage house has kicked up a fuss that’s refusing to subside.

www.dawn.com

 

[firohot4321]

So be it. Perhaps new blood shed for independence will ensure freedom isn't traded for $$$ in the future.

Will you shed your blood or run to foreign
Or already have

Fixing is. Better and easier then starting from scratch

 

[fatman17]

Those high numbers (80%) may not mean much.

Explainer: Is CDS an accurate indicator of default risk?​

Explainer: Is CDS an accurate indicator of default risk?

A message relayed on the WhatsApp broadcast of a brokerage house has kicked up a fuss that’s refusing to subside.

www.dawn.com

I'm not a financial expert maybe you can explain better

Rupee dips to six-week low | The Express Tribune

Yield on Pakistan’s Sukuk rises to 98.96%, fanning default fears

tribune.com.pk

 

[epebble]

I'm not a financial expert maybe you can explain better

Rupee dips to six-week low | The Express Tribune

Yield on Pakistan’s Sukuk rises to 98.96%, fanning default fears

tribune.com.pk

From the article:

But how real is this number and in which universe does it make sense to protect a $100 investment by paying a $75 fee? “The CDS level shows the cost of insuring against default. It doesn’t tell the probability of default,” Alpha Capital Securities CEO Muhammad Azfer Naseem told Dawn on Saturday. “The current rate is reflective of the fact that no one is willing to guarantee Pakistan’s debt. Pakistan would find no investor if it wanted to issue a $1bn bond at 8pc today,” he said. Simply stated, it’s like an overpriced listing on an online property portal: an exorbitantly high rate doesn’t automatically make it the basis for an actual transaction.

 

[lightning F57]

If I am a foreign investor looking to buy bonds issued by the pak gov who would do so to help them finance loans, carry out spending etc, if it's got a high degree of risk I wouldn't bother investing as the indicator is showing likely a default on being able to pay back my investment.

 

[fatman17]

From the article:

But how real is this number and in which universe does it make sense to protect a $100 investment by paying a $75 fee? “The CDS level shows the cost of insuring against default. It doesn’t tell the probability of default,” Alpha Capital Securities CEO Muhammad Azfer Naseem told Dawn on Saturday. “The current rate is reflective of the fact that no one is willing to guarantee Pakistan’s debt. Pakistan would find no investor if it wanted to issue a $1bn bond at 8pc today,” he said. Simply stated, it’s like an overpriced listing on an online property portal: an exorbitantly high rate doesn’t automatically make it the basis for an actual transaction.

Based on these extracts it seems Pakistan is "hands off" for everyone, internal and external investment.

Based on these extracts it seems Pakistan is "hands off" for everyone, internal and external investment.

Whether that leads to default???

By june-2023 Pakistan needs 23B$ to pay the IFIs. Where is that going to come from?

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@fatman17

By june-2023 Pakistan needs 23B$ to pay the IFIs. Where is that going to come from?

If Pak cant arrange the funds, the borrowers will be forced to roll over.

Regards

 

[Tameem]

@fatman17

By june-2023 Pakistan needs 23B$ to pay the IFIs. Where is that going to come from?

If Pak cant arrange the funds, the borrowers will be forced to roll over.

Regards

Irony an enemy Indian trying to cool down fears; ignited by by sell outs Pakistanis aka Imrandoos.

@fatman17

By june-2023 Pakistan needs 23B$ to pay the IFIs. Where is that going to come from?

If Pak cant arrange the funds, the borrowers will be forced to roll over.

Regards

All next year obligations are planned and arranged. Post November postings...things looks more ease out.

 

[Enigma SIG]

Ishaq Dar is Elon Musk.

He will take us to new heights.

Upside down.

 

[Raider 21]

Hopefully China can bail us out.

China is not a saviour Multani. They are a superpower who would only do so if it was in their interest.

 

[Tameem]

Hopefully China can bail us out.

All arrangements are made but not Public due to fluid political situation created by donkey khan.

No foreign govt look to be partisan in our mess and rightly so. Once COAS appointment dust settles, Imrandoos dies down their natural death, things start improving briskly IA.

 

[lightning F57]

Only early election will stabilise country, foreign donors will be reluctant to give to the crooks in power knowing they will waste it.

 

[maithil]

Those high numbers (80%) may not mean much.

Explainer: Is CDS an accurate indicator of default risk?​

Explainer: Is CDS an accurate indicator of default risk?

A message relayed on the WhatsApp broadcast of a brokerage house has kicked up a fuss that’s refusing to subside.

www.dawn.com

So commercial banks will not lend a penny. Bonds will fail as well. Other than that, if friends lend a hand, the situation can be salvaged till end of this fiscal year. Post that, rinse and repeat.

 

[RescueRanger]

Hopefully China can bail us out.

 

[MultaniGuy]

China is not a saviour Multani. They are a superpower who would only do so if it was in their interest.

Yes, but Pakistan's and China's interests are the same. They want Gwadar port and Karachi port. There is something in it for them as well.

Also the large consumer market of Pakistan for Chinese products as well.