How Civilizations Die: (And Why Iran is Dying Too)

[iranigirl2]

@Marshmallow

expect Rafael Correa to have some sort of cancer by next year.............

 

[-SINAN-]

I didn't quietly understood why this article includes Turkey with Iran.

Turkey's 2012 Fertility Rate was 2.08 which increased from 2.02 (2011), actually not that bad at all.

I couldn't find a up to data but in 2010 Iran's was 1.64, much below required 2.1 rate.

 

[iranigirl2]

I didn't quietly understood why this article includes Turkey with Iran.

Turkey's 2012 Fertility Rate was 2.08 which increased from 2.02 (2011), actually not that bad at all.

I couldn't find a up to data but in 2010 Iran's was 1.64, much below required 2.1 rate.

Turkey's situation is even worse than Iran.

 

[-SINAN-]

Turkey's situation is even worse than Iran.

Care to explain ?

 

[my2cents]

In a nut shell the author is saying that education of women is the culprit for the civilization collapse. Why doesn't the Iranian govt. encourage women to have more kids by giving incentives? Canada and some European countries dole out money for having more kids. Now is the time to arrest the great Iranian civilization decline by doing the following things....

ban girls education and promote family unity

pass laws to have women stay at home and have more kids

 

[Chak Bamu]

Islam = Iran ????? WTH!

I do not see much of a problem with the article. But the thread starter needs to think a bit more.

 

[Marshmallow]

Care to explain ?

sorry off topic but there is joke on turkey on social media dat da low rate of new borns n controlld population in modrn turkey may result in a situation dat da old couples of 70/80 ages wud hav to be admittd again to school in kindrgarten to high schools cuz da country one day wudnt find any baby/young student to be taken as new n fresh student in school

no offence!

 

[Azizam]

In a nut shell the author is saying that education of women is the culprit for the civilization collapse. Why doesn't the Iranian govt. encourage women to have more kids by giving incentives? Canada and some European countries dole out money for having more kids. Now is the time to arrest the great Iranian civilization decline by doing the following things....

ban girls education and promote family unity

pass laws to have women stay at home and have more kids

LOL yeah! Civilization will definitely grow in an unimaginable rate of pace when half the population (women) is uneducated and contribute nothing to work force.

 

[iranigirl2]

Care to explain ?

excerpt:

That's half the problem. During the period 1995–1998, overall Turkish fertility was 2.29 children per woman, While Kurdish fertility was 4.27 children per woman. The Kurds compromise 18 percent of the Turkish population by the narrowest definition (Kurdish rather than Turkish as a mother tongue), which means that the Turkish fertility rate excluding the Kurds during the late 1990s was only 1.5, as low as Europe's. For native Turkish speaker in Turkey, fertility has been in a death-spiral for fifteen years.
Erdogan is right: if the trend continues until 2038, the Turkish economy will collapse under the strain of caring for its dependent elderly, while the country's young will be concentrated among the minorities demanding independence.


At the current fertility rates, Turkish-speaking women will give birth to 1.88 children during their reproductive years. The corresponding figure is 4.07 children for Kurdish women. Kurdish women will have almost 2 children more than Turkish women...Results show that despite intensive internal migration movements in the last 50 years, strong demographic differentials exist between Turkish and Kurdish-speaking populations, and that the convergence of the two groups does not appear to be a process under way.


Page 56

How Civilizations Die: And Why Islam Is Dying Too - David Paul Goldman - Google Books


Iran is having the same problem. Wherever muslims women are more educated as in Iran and Turkey, we have less kids and more prone to migration to more developed countries , whereas less educated muslim women always have more kids, regardless of having to face poverty, and more difficulties.

 

[Pakistanisage]

That's not entirely true.


How come European countries with good economy and much less inflation than Iran also have less kids?


How come poor, illiterate, rural, Iranian still have more kids , than Urbanized, educated, middle class Iranian?



Studies, after studies has shown that following factors contribute to the reduction of fertility:

• Increased education for women
• Increasing employment of women
• Improved health care and family planning
• Higher marriage age
• More frequent divorce
• Urbanization



The more we move away from Traditional Gender Roles, the quicker our civilization will suffer a decline.


So, that brings in a more difficult debate.

Should we stay home and have more kids?

Was Iran right to ban females from certain Majors at universities?


What do you guys think?

Start making babies @iranigirl2 and tell Iranigirl1 also to get busy making babies.

Remember, Cyrus is counting on you to save the Persian Civilization.

 

[iranigirl2]

@Sinan


The decline of Turkish fertility, along with rapidly falling fertility in all Muslim countries that display high literary rates, is a stealth phenomenon that only recently has drawn widespread attention. I review the data in my book How Civilizations Die and why Islam is Dying, Too (Regnery 2011). More recently, Nicholas Eberstadt and Poorvah Shah reviewed the data in a study in Policy Review. Muslim demographics have important strategic implications for a number of countries. Turkey's situation, though, is unique in the extreme differences between Turkish-speaking and Kurdish-speaking fertility in Anatolia.

Prime Minister Erdoğan has made the revival of Turkey's flagging birth rate a major political issue. Zaman reported during last year's election campaign that he


... lashed out at his chief rival party for promoting birth control for years, reiterating his call for at least three children. Erdoğan, who has long claimed that for a healthy and vibrant society people must have at least three children, said the Western societies are now collapsing because of aging and urged his supporters in a campaign rally in Ankara on Monday not to 'trap into this game.' They [the opposition CHP] have inspired this nation with birth control for having aging population on the world stage," Erdoğan told at the rally, adding that if population continues to increase at this level, Turkey will be among aging nations by 2038.

Erdoğan is focused on a critical weakness that Western analysts for the most part have overlooked. Within one generation, at current rates, half of Turkey's military-age population will be born in households where Kurdish is the first language. The Turkish government's hope of integrating the Kurds under the broader Islamic tent have failed, and the new ambitions of Syria's Kurds expose the underlying weakness of Turkey's strategic position and the likely effectiveness of its diplomacy.

It also calls into question the presumption that Turkey is America's critical ally in the region. If Turkey is likely to be the loser on demographic grounds, American planners need to consider alternatives to reliance on Ankara for regional policy. If a Kurdish state is inevitable for demographic and other reasons, America may do best to place an early bet on the winner.

 

[iranigirl2]

Start making babies @iranigirl2 and tell Iranigirl1 also to get busy making babies.

Remember, Cyrus is counting on you to save the Persian Civilization.

I will.Once I'm done with school and find a handsome husband. I don't care about race, but he has to be educated, polite, and familiar with middle Eastern culture!

 

[-SINAN-]

sorry off topic but there is joke on turkey on social media dat da low rate of new borns n controlld population in modrn turkey may result in a situation dat da old couples of 70/80 ages wud hav to be admittd again to school in kindrgarten to high schools cuz da country one day wudnt find any baby/young student to be taken as new n fresh student in school

no offence!

Haters gonna hate, there is no fertily rate problem in Turkey. You can look it up.

 

[BronzePlaque]

Thats due to urbanization..Its almost impossible to have more than 2 kids if you want to live a normal life here in big cities and care for your children`s future/life standarts etc..Life is expensive

 

[-SINAN-]

@iranigirl2

Erdogan is right: if the trend continues until 2038, the Turkish economy will collapse under the strain of caring for its dependent elderly, while the country's young will be concentrated among the minorities demanding independence.

Turkey's fertiliy rate is 2.08, slightly below 2.1 (bare minumum). Turkey is not in danger of anything yet but could be. That's why Turkey taking precautions and it seems working.

At my first post i streesed out that Turkey shouldn't be compared with Iran whose fertility rate is 1.68 (serious problem)

Iran is having the same problem. Wherever muslims women are more educated as in Iran and Turkey, we have less kids and more prone to migration to more developed countries , whereas less educated muslim women always have more kids, regardless of having to face poverty, and more difficulties.

I don't see this as a problem, there will be 10 workers but one executive. We don't need a super/duper educated people.

The decline of Turkish fertility, along with rapidly falling fertility in all Muslim countries that display high literary rates, is a stealth phenomenon that only recently has drawn widespread attention. I review the data in my book How Civilizations Die and why Islam is Dying, Too (Regnery 2011). More recently, Nicholas Eberstadt and Poorvah Shah reviewed the data in a study in Policy Review. Muslim demographics have important strategic implications for a number of countries. Turkey's situation, though, is unique in the extreme differences between Turkish-speaking and Kurdish-speaking fertility in Anatolia.

Turkey's fertility increased in 2012,(2.02 to 2.08), in 2013 it is expected to pass, the bare minumum number of 2.1

Prime Minister Erdoğan has made the revival of Turkey's flagging birth rate a major political issue. Zaman reported during last year's election campaign that

As i said before, we are not under serious threat, but could be. What Turkey is doing is taking precautions.