Highest ever export in goods in the month of October.

[Patriot forever]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455151874101895178

Our exports are gaining momentum every passing year after a stagnation/decrease from 2013-18. $28b-$30b is a reality now.

Trade deficit shrinks by $413m. ( After SBP adjusts for vaccine imports which is 11% of our total import figure will be even better).

CAD will be better than September (which was better than August) . 2nd consecutive month of improvement.

This will certainly further improve the market sentiment along with the speculation and will further appreciate rupee.

 

[Norwegian]

Exports register record in October, rise 17.5pc to $2.47 billion
Tahir SheraniPublished November 1, 2021 - Updated about an hour ago
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During the July-Oct 2021 period, Pakistan's exports grew by 25pc to $9.468 billion. — Reuters/File
Pakistan’s exports posted a 17.5 per cent growth in October, rising to $2.471 billion as compared to $2.104 billion in Oct 2020.
"This is the highest-ever export [figure] in any October in our history," a statement issued by the Ministry of Commerce said on Monday.
It added that the export target for Oct 2021 was $2.6 billion.
During the July-Oct 2021 period, Pakistan's exports grew by 25pc to $9.468 billion, compared to $7.576 billion during the same period last year. The ministry's target for July-Oct 2021 was $9.6 billion.
Commerce Adviser Abdul Razak Dawood also expressed satisfaction over the development on Twitter.
Meanwhile, during the Jul-Oct 2021 period, imports rose by 64pc to $24.99 billion as compared to $15.19 billion during the same period in 2020.
"About 40pc of this increase is investment-driven (capital goods, raw material and intermediates), which indicates [an] expansion of industry and enhanced activity by industry," the ministry said.
The remaining 60pc of the imports were made up of petroleum, coal and gas (34pc); vaccines (11pc); food (8pc); consumer goods (2pc); and all others (5pc). "Most of this is inelastic in nature," the commerce ministry noted in its press release.
In absolute terms, the net increase in imports over the four-month period was $9.801 billion. This comprised consumer goods worth $239 million, food $823 million, capital goods $1.620 billion, raw material and intermediates $2.209 billion, petroleum, coal and gas $3.364 billion, vaccines $1.068 billion, and all others $478 million.

 

[Falcon26]

Pakistan should be doing at least $5-billion in exports each month. It’s embarrassing that since 2004, the exports have only grown by $1.5-billion for the month of October. A serious conversation should be had on what ails Pakistan’s exports, which is directly related to the question of productivity.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

... A serious conversation should be had on what ails Pakistan’s exports, which is directly related to the question of productivity.

Lack of electricity.
Lack of electricity.
Lack of electricity.
Lack of roads.
Low quality of products.

 

[Patriot forever]

Pakistan should be doing at least $5-billion in exports each month. It’s embarrassing that since 2004, the exports have only grown by $1.5-billion for the month of October. A serious conversation should be had on what ails Pakistan’s exports, which is directly related to the question of productivity.

Everyone knows the flaws.

1st Fixed currency was the most dominant factor ( the reason I shared the slide). Have a look from 2013-2018.

2nd factor is high energy costs due to expensive IPP contracts.

 

[Norwegian]

Lack of electricity.
Lack of electricity.
Lack of electricity.
Lack of roads.
Low quality of products.

Everyone knows the flaws.

1st Fixed currency was the most dominant factor ( the reason I shared the slide). Have a look from 2013-2018.

2nd factor is high energy costs due to expensive IPP contracts.

Lack of brains, too much Khota Biryani

 

[Patriot forever]

Lack of electricity.
Lack of electricity.
Lack of electricity.
Lack of roads.
Low quality of products.

Not lack of electricity, lack of transmission capability. 30-50% of installed capacity is idle and only contributes to capacity payment.
We were just short of 2 - 5 MW in generation. The transmission bottle necks were the root cause as it was not able to handle optimum output.

Look at the total consumption even today there is a huge gap installed capacity and actual generation.

Furthermore almost all of the new installed capacity is imported thermal. ( Coal RLNG). They are highly unreliable in sense that like in the current international inflationary cycle we simply can not afford to run them all out because we don't have the dollars to pay for fuel.
Our energy imports figure have inflated to almost double, furthermore the fuel adjustment surcharge for the current months is making electricity more expensive.


Exports in PPP era was more than in 2013-2018.

 

[Crimson Blue]

"About 40pc of this increase is investment-driven (capital goods, raw material and intermediates), which indicates [an] expansion of industry and enhanced activity by industry," the ministry said.

I do not believe this part of the report too much. If investment-driven imports increased by 64% then it should lead to multiple times increase in economic activity. They better show GDP growth of greater than 7% for year 2021-22 to justify increase of 64%. And this increase in investment-driven imports should translate in to greater than 50% growth in exports in coming months.

Someone posted another report (Fools_nightmare) the Shaukat Tarin did not believe the bureaucrats back in August when they tried to sell him churan that increase in imports are due to investment-driven imports .

 

[Norwegian]

Not lack of electricity, lack of transmission capability. 30-50% of installed capacity is idle and only contributes to capacity payment.
We were just short of 2 - 5 MW in generation. The transmission bottle necks were the root cause as it was not able to handle optimum output.

Look at the total consumption even today there is a huge gap installed capacity and actual generation.

Furthermore almost all of the new installed capacity is imported thermal. ( Coal RLNG). They are highly unreliable in sense that like in the current international inflationary cycle we simply can not afford to run them all out because we don't have the dollars to pay for fuel.
Our energy imports figure have inflated to almost double, furthermore the fuel adjustment surcharge for the current months is making electricity more expensive.


Exports in PPP era was more than in 2013-2018.

What a country thanks to Khota Biryani investments in the wrong sector

Pakistan’s unexpected dilemma: too much electricity

Large-scale construction of new power plants — largely coal-fired ones funded by China — has dramatically boosted energy capacity.

www.dawn.com

 

[Patriot forever]

What a country thanks to Khota Biryani investments in the wrong sector

Pakistan’s unexpected dilemma: too much electricity

Large-scale construction of new power plants — largely coal-fired ones funded by China — has dramatically boosted energy capacity.

www.dawn.com

The major problem is "take or pay" CONTRACTS.

Have a look at the recent LNG investment by Qatar ( private investment by a constorium of sapphire Qatar and one more local company). Its purely based on market demand and no sovereign guarantees or take or pay clause like the previous where state had to pay for the terminal/ FSRU on a daily basis.

This is how the world operates not fixed profits backed by sovereign guarantees.

Round the year fixed payments have hurt energy sector and made electricity one of the most expensive in region. THE only reason is wrong ' CONTRACTS'.

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

Not lack of electricity, lack of transmission capability. 30-50% of installed capacity is idle and only contributes to capacity payment.
We were just short of 2 - 5 MW in generation. The transmission bottle necks were the root cause as it was not able to handle optimum output. ...

Brother, 29 GW of installed electricity for a population of 230 million is a joke. Compare that to the UK, which has around 76 GW of installed electricity for a population of 65 million.

 

[Patriot forever]

Brother, 29 GW of installed electricity for a population of 230 million is a joke. Compare that to the UK, which has around 76 GW of installed electricity for a population of 65 million.

I know what you are saying bro, but we are not an advanced economy like UK. Comparing our per capita consumption to UK is a joke.

Even China has way less consumption than America per capita.

Electricity consumption per capita will not match UK in next 30 years.

What we needed was to plan on our projected demand and not on take or pay contracts.

Install 2-3 MW in the short term and start for long term cheaper generation to cater for future demand.

 

[Norwegian]

Round the year fixed payments have hurt energy sector and made electricity one of the most expensive in region. THE only reason is wrong ' CONTRACTS'.

What we needed was to plan on our projected demand and not on take or pay contracts.

Contracts signed by Pmln experienced team

@Pakistan Space Agency

Brother, 29 GW of installed electricity for a population of 230 million is a joke. Compare that to the UK, which has around 76 GW of installed electricity for a population of 65 million.

In UK the installed capacity is actually being consumed and not idling as in Pakistan

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

I know what you are saying bro, but we are not an advanced economy like UK. Comparing our per capita consumption to UK is a joke.

Even China has way less consumption than America per capita.

Electricity consumption per capita will not match UK in next 30 years.

What we needed was to plan on our projected demand and not on take or pay contracts.

Install 2-3 MW in the short term and start for long term cheaper generation to cater for future demand.

I understand not wanting to compare per capita installed capacity of Pakistan to the UK, but that's exactly what should be the target, making sure that each Pakistani has access to electricity 24/7 and how ever amount he/she requires.

Since 2008, each Government so far has installed around 5GW in each of their tenures while the population has been increasing around 3.5 million a year. So far, the three Governments have been playing catch up or just installing enough to get by.

This is not a strategy and Pakistan will never unlock the power of electricity at this rate. A far more aggressive policy needs to be pursued.

 

[Norwegian]

I understand not wanting to compare per capita installed capacity of Pakistan to the UK, but that's exactly what should be the target, making sure that each Pakistani has access to electricity 24/7 and how ever amount he/she requires.

Since 2008, each Government so far has installed around 5GW in each of their tenures while the population has been increasing around 3.5 million a year. So far, the three Governments have been playing catch up or just installing enough to get by.

This is not a strategy and Pakistan will never unlock the power of electricity at this rate. A far more aggressive policy needs to be pursued.

Increasing installed capacity is not enough. You need to fix transmission system too.