I will tell you how this will play out.
Israel will make airstrikes and artillery strikes at Hezbollah's positions in southern Lebanon, but these sorties and strikes will be ineffective because of Hezbollah's positions in hardened tunnels and bunkers in the mountains and employment of camouflage and fake targets.
Israel will use drones for targeting, but they will be taken out by "Missile 358" SAM. Your aircrafts will also be under fire of various SAMs of Hezbollah.
Israel will make ineffective airstrikes and artillery strikes in the mountains while Hezbollah will attack artillery positions and armor concentrations and fuel supply depots deep inside Israel with thousands of cheap Lancet-like drones which might have the range of 50-70km.
After airstrikes and artillery strikes, you will send your armor and infantry into the mountains of southern Lebanon. There is Hezbollah's multilayered defensive line in the mountains of southern Lebanon.
Military theory says that even if attacker has superiority in firepower, attacker must have 3:1 or better 5:1 advantage in quantity when attacking in the mountaineous terrain. Since Hezbollah has 40.000 battle experienced troops, you will have to mobilize 120.000 troops with poor morale and no experience and this quantity is more than your entire ground force.
When Israeli armor enters mountains of Lebanon, it will have to deal with large concentrations of top-attack ATGMs like Almas missile or Sadid-365 missile attacking from a distance of 5-6kms and cheap Lancet-like loitering munitions attacking from a distance of 50-70km, and mines. Eventually your armored assault will end-up like Russian assault ended in Ukraine in the early phase of the Ukraine war.
When Israeli airstrike-artillery strike-ground assault operation fails, Israel will target civilian infrastructure. Then Hezbollah will attack Israel with 100.000 missiles and this will deplete Iron Dome missile inventory and simultaneously there will be attack by thousands of cheap Shahed-136 drones, hundreds of terrain-hugging cruise missiles and hundreds of precise 500km range ballistic missiles at your powerplants, water desalination plants, chemical facilities, oil refineries, gas distribution infrastructure, civilian airports and military airbases, ports of Haifa and Ashdod. Anti-ship missiles with 300km range will attack your gas platforms in your gas fields and cargo ships, paralizing your trade with billions of dollars of damage.
This will be an ugly war with destruction and substantial casualties on both sides. But when you say you will easily defeat Hezbollah it sounds like claims that the 2nd most powerfull army in the world will conquer Ukraine in 3 days. However in reality you can expect that if you go into Lebanon, battle experienced Hezbollah fighters will put that rifle in your photo inside your ***...
Nah I'll tell you what's going to happen:
Israel is going to bomb every single critical infrastructure in Lebanon in one hour, complete lights out.
That means Israeli vehicles, aircraft and soldiers equipped with thermal optics and NVGs will have a complete advantage over 99 percent of Hezbollah's forces which aren't equipped with those.
Also, we are going to bomb the houses of every Hezbollah member, so say bye bye to their families.
We know the location of Hezbollah tunnels and bunkers, we have a BMS that's available to all of our officers. However, as I said, those tunnels and bunkers are irrelevant as long as they don't have rockets in them, because Israeli forces will not rush into Lebanon like you think they will. We're going to raze Lebanon first.
Your SAMs aren't going to do shit lol
Besides Hezbollah doesn't have advanced SAMs since we destroy them on their way to Syria. Not that it matters because "advanced SAMs" to you means shitty Russian/Iranian SAMs.
Hezbollah drones won't be a factor, especially short ranged Lancet like drones due to Israeli EW interrupting video and control feed.
ATGMs will be useless against
"40,000 Hezbollah soldiers" those aren't soldiers lol. 80 percent of those are what you call militia, equipped with light arms.
A 1:3 advantage historically refers to similar quality soldiers and equipment, this is not the case with Hezbollah. Also, Israel in 1967 did the same while being at a disadvantage numerically.
"Poor morale and no experience" lol, Israeli military has way more experience than Hezbollah. We fight and train every day.
Anyways, you'll see how your monkey force dies within 2 weeks of war.
And also there is also other scenario that can be happen if Israel faces hardship, i don t believe Israel will use nuclear bombs, it would be their demise, and the reason for Iran to go openly nuclear without stupid stops...
How is Iran going to go nuclear after Israel destroys it?
