China’s economic activity rebounds in cities where Covid peaked
FRI, DEC 30, 2022 - 11:05 AM
Traffic congestion levels across 15 major cities in China rebounded nearly 60 per cent by Wednesday from a week ago.
PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
ECONOMIC activity is rebounding in several Chinese cities where Covid infections likely already peaked, although many parts of the country are still grappling with soaring cases and mobility is still far below levels reached a few months ago.
The number of passengers using subways in Beijing, Chongqing, Chengdu and Wuhan rose about 40 per cent to 100 per cent in the week through Wednesday (Dec 28), a sign that residents in those areas are returning to work, shopping and restaurants once again. A measure of traffic congestion in those cities increased about 150 per cent to 240 per cent over the period.
The mobility figures back up comments from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday that infections have peaked in places like Beijing, Tianjin and Chengdu. The situation remains serious in Shanghai, Chongqing, Anhui, Hubei and Hunan, it said.
In Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou, subway usage declined between 34 per cent and 42 per cent by Wednesday from a week ago, according to calculations based on a seven-day rolling average of passenger numbers. Road traffic decreased from 34 per cent to 57 per cent over the same period. That suggests infections are continuing to spread in those cities, and residents are homebound because of illness or fear of becoming infected.
While mobility still remains well below pre-pandemic levels, the quick rebound in activity in cities like Beijing — where the outbreak was most severe when China abruptly began dropping Covid restrictions — suggests the economy could post a faster-than-expected recovery once the infection wave passes across the country.
“December will most likely be the bottom of the economy,” Haitong Securities analysts including Liang Zhonghua wrote in a report on Thursday. “The national Covid wave may be peaking already,” which means mobility and economic activity will likely rebound, they said.