AS an extreme summer engulfs the Indo-Gangetic plane, the political temperature is also rising. The Indian defence minister’s extraordinary statement about “fighting terror with terror” amounts to an open admission of India’s role in sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan and confirms the Pakistan Army’s accusation of India’s role in the Balochistan insurgency. The Pakistan army chief’s remarks calling for a solution for Kashmir on the basis of UN resolutions was an obvious reminder that India should not forget its own vulnerabilities.
India’s pronouncements have become increasingly strident. The Indian foreign minister has reiterated the refusal to resume a dialogue with Pakistan unless India’s preconditions are met. The defence minister, apart from the terror gaffe, has revived the far-fetched concern about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons being captured by extremists, in this case by the largely absent extremists of IS or the ‘Islamic State’. Indian officials have also floated the ludicrous claim that Saudi Arabia intends to buy nuclear weapons “off the shelf” from Pakistan. Notably, India launched a protest with China regarding the plan for an ‘economic corridor’ from Gwadar to Khunjerab.
The reasons for the escalating Indian rhetoric against Pakistan are not far to find. First, India is frustrated that Pakistan has not wilted under the pressure New Delhi hoped to generate by cutting off talks and ‘isolating’ Pakistan by its ‘terrorism’ accusations. On the contrary, Pakistan has evolved a more normal relationship with the US, obtained a major strategic commitment from China and opened a new chapter with Afghanistan.
Ok , so first
@DESERT FIGHTER you didnt Quote me
lets me give my share on Opinion as the points were listed ...
First thing, its a bit hard to believe that Indian Defense Minister has issued a hard Statement without making its place to western Media ? strange things happening to South Asia ... apart from his intention to Armed and support the TTP or other terrorists Outfit in Pakistan to destabilize Pakistan and continuously make us busy in a Proxy war , Its pretty much shocking for me that A Person like Modi , person famous for his war intention is sitting quite from all these years ? appointing those in the house who hate Pakistan or Muslims in general ? its again very strange that this silence itself rising a lot of question on the credibility of Western Geopolitics and threats S.Asia is facing ..
Indians cry over the ISIS and their possible sights on our nukes is nothing different from what we heard from US in Past , nothing but a pressure tactics, and its like as Hitler once said " If you say a lie , and keep saying so eventually people will start believing it " , if you see all this in the context of the above statement , Indians are continuously crying for this and that , their intention and plan is still unclear , maybe thing will change drastically and they might hit us where we are less expecting , a the saying goes " Never underestimate your Enemy " ..
Second, India is concerned that a Pakistan-Afghan normalisation will neutralise the western front India opened against Pakistan (through its support for the Balochistan Liberation Army insurgency and secret sponsorship of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan) and reduce Indian influence in Afghanistan. India worked hard with its friends in Kabul to generate opposition to President Ghani’s outreach to Pakistan and the putative deal for Kabul to act against the BLA and the TTP while Pakistan works to promote reconciliation between Ghani and the Afghan Taliban. India has had partial success. President Ghani visited India and has lately voiced discontent with Pakistan. Kabul’s cooperation against the BLA and the TTP also appears to have slowed down. The Pakistan Army’s open allegation of India’s role in Balochistan was also addressed to Kabul.
India is frustrated that Pakistan has not wilted under the pressure New Delhi hoped to generate.
Third, India opposes China’s rising role in the region, including in Afghanistan, and particularly its renewed strategic and economic commitment to Pakistan illustrated by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative. The realisation of this plan would be a major setback to India’s desire to dominate South Asia and isolate Pakistan.
Fourth, domestically, Modi’s ‘shine’ appears to be fading. So far, he has not delivered jobs or improved the lives of the poor. The BJP’s defeat in the Delhi elections to the Aam Aadmi party displayed its slide in popularity. Pakistan-bashing is the standard technique used by Indian governments to revive flagging domestic support. This is, of course, second nature to the extremists of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Besides Modi, the defence minister, national security adviser and the RSS-linked army chief appear all too eager to prove their credentials to their core constituency.
It is difficult to predict how far India’s ‘fighting talk’ will remain just talk or escalate into another crisis with Pakistan. Unfortunately, there are no modalities in place between India and Pakistan for crisis prevention. There are several scenarios in which the two nuclear powers could find themselves engaged in a dangerous confrontation.
second point is exactly what Indians are doing , that is not Indian plan to do in the Future ,let us bring some senior members to ask , despite Pakistan is kicking the A$$'s of TTP on daily bases , why would Indian will sit quite , are they planning something different ? BLA and TTP is on the run , we have seen some attack as their reaction , but no major battles , at least nothing of some sort of intense battles, its again silence like before a Storm is Approaching ..
Ajit goval after his Statement is out of the equation ? all of the sudden , what is in the Minds of Indians , and do we have a counter policy or plan to deal with whatever they are planning to throw at us ? that is one million dollar question ..
Indians concern over Intelligence sharing with ISI , is understandable over the decade they have created a front back by the US and NATO from the West side of Pakistan, so they can hold of TTP and BLA , across the Baluchistan,and Pakistan creating a conciliation between Afghan Taliban and Ghani govt is again a Pill of stone for Indians to swallow , cause their whole investment will go to vein ..but again the question is that the real plan is ?
Can a Intelligence service of a Country be that Stupid to revel everything they plan to be ? i dont think so ...
Third ,Pak-China corridor , is not just life line for drowning Pakistan's Economy but , also bring a lot opportunities for Pakistan to get its second Strike Capability , and create a better fighting force against any misadventure by India ..
China once get involve in this Game , Indian wont be able to Attack Pakistan , cause China has their stake in Pakistan , they will be free to retaliate to protect their people and their assets , 46Billion dollar is just start , the investment will be much high and there are much high things at stake here , here another thing which is a bit strange that where are American in whole Picture ? can we say they are too busy in ME mess ? or as usual they are working back door ? the rising Tension in South China sea is the factor that they are not sleeping , Indians despite everything is now in this dirty game , US is using them to ignite the fire in S.Asia , this region work as a half dead Volcano , just a single spark will start a bloody conflict which include 3 Nuclear Powers .. with the huge Armies and destructible weapons at their stock will double the death toll .
I wont sit quite , considering just one defeat as the complete defeat of the Indian , we should not forget the Minds working with the Indians, yeah the Israel , apart from going into any Conspiracy Theory , but we can not deny the fact that Israel Presence in India and their Plans to Spy on Pakistan ..even in Kargil later we find the role of Israel . and Indians working on stuff like Ghar Wapsi , Love Jihad against their Minority and the Western Powers put silent on the issue is the testimony that West try to Give the Command of the Region to Indians .. Indian elite class may not be war mongers like RSS , but thing is that once you change the face of the house completely with lunatics, the voice is too small to resist .
My own Assignment is a bit different , that India will escalate any direct confrontation with Pakistan in its current situation, there are already question marks on Modi , and his war Plans, and after the Statement of Ajit Doval , its seems a bit Odd for them to attack or conduct any Surgical Strikes , and remain i will go with
@Horus Post #5
It seems certain that, following China’s commitment to CPEC, India ( and others) may see the fostering of violence in Balochistan not only as pressure point against Pakistan (to ensure its ‘good behaviour’ in Kashmir), but also as a means to prevent China’s direct access to the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf and West Asia. Indian (and other) mischief in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan may escalate. President Ghani may be persuaded not to cooperate with Pakistan in eliminating the support base of the insurgency in Afghanistan. If Pakistan’s counter-insurgency measures in Balochistan are not successful, Kashmir may be brought back into the equation, setting the stage for another India-Pakistan confrontation.
well, there is no doubt that Indians will do their best to Sabotage the CPEC , but my concern is their way of doing that , BLA and BRA is day by day lost their credibility , their Fighting force is on the run , its just a matter of time that once you start a medium scale Ops , in Baluchistan , you will find many dead corps , a much intel can be gathered from there , but the question is that where are those so called Proof's which our LEA has and they are telling from decades that Indian Involvement is undeniable ,we have to bring those Proofs in-front of West , because no one will listen to us unless we have solid proves ..
India and Indians will be happy with the fact that Kashmir is a dying breed , Kashmiri despite their Protest and struggles over the Decades , no one give a Damn about it , Sadly not even our own Politicians..
the next possible limited Conflict between Pakistan and India will be on Kashmir , no doubt , but the Question that who will set the Stage and what will be the Stakes ..@Horus
@Irfan Baloch
A Kashmir crisis is possible, even without Pakistan’s intervention. The BJP government’s policies in Kashmir — settling Hindus in the Valley, eroding India-held Kashmir’s special status and continued suppression of dissent — have already provoked widespread protest from Kashmiri Muslims. A new Kashmiri revolt is probable. It would evoke popular support in Pakistan, leading to another India-Pakistan crisis.
Indians are either very smart or too confident that they know no matter what we do , Pakistan will stand alone in case of Kashmir , and unfortunately its seems that we are alone in this matter ..Inshallah and Mashallah's will not Win us Kashmir to be honest , I hope we have a proper Plan to work it out ... Indian are working exactly on the model of Israel , so there is no rocket science to understand where their Planner are getting Brain help from ..
The spark for such a crisis may be lit by another terror attack in India. Given the anti-Muslim postures of the BJP-RSS government, Muslim militancy is likely to manifest itself more strongly in India. Terror groups, like Al Qaeda or IS, have already declared their intention to instigate such terror attacks. India’s Pavlovian reaction would be to blame Pakistan.
no that is some scary but undeniable thought , any attack ( terror ) in India will be blamed on Pakistan , and i wont be Surprised that if FBI , CIA will back their Claims just like they did in Mumbai Attack , result will be another Stand off ? no , this time it will be much more than that , cause Modi and his Govt Prestige will be at stake, Destroy Pakistan is still the most favorable slogan in India for any Political Entity ...
but the rising the Influence of China in Pakistan, will not let Indians to go for any Misadventure, its will damage India more than it will do Pakistan ...that is a Fact ... Indians are watching Dreams to be Super Power or at least Regional , compared to Pakistan which is Fighting for its own Existence from the day we get our Independence ...
Any one of these scenarios can lead to a disastrous conflict. While India may feel tempted to test its ‘limited war’ concept, Pakistan would operate under the assumption that India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine (of sudden and massive attack) is operational. A major military engagement is likely to rapidly involve a missile exchange, with Pakistan seeking to break up large Indian formations, and India responding with attacks on command centres and strategic assets. Since most missiles and aircraft are ‘“dual capable’ (they can be armed with conventional or nuclear weapons), the danger of a conflict escalating to the nuclear level is extremely high.
Cold Start Doctrine is dead , if you ask me , Pakistan Created NASR for that sole Purpose , but Nukes are never be on Equation , we can not just use them in any conventional war , that will not just isolate us in future , and later, the sanction will hit us for the whole century , our most of the Trade and Weapons ( State of the Art ) comes from the US , and if Sanction were enable on us , than we will be go 2 decade backwards in technological terms , so my Advice let us be prepared for a Limited but conventional War ..Its never to late to Start Preparation ..
The destiny of billions cannot be left in the hands of leaders motivated by religious and historical antagonisms or to hope and chance. Over almost 70 years, India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve their disputes rationally. The international community, especially the major powers, must play a more active and responsible role in preventing another war whose catastrophic consequences could reverberate far beyond South Asia.
I will say that Destiny of the Billion of People of S.Asia is the hands of those who are working on the back stage , either in Positive or Negative way , it will be interesting to see how West Reacts on the Indian Defense Minister Plans to Fund the TTP and other separatist Organizations in Pakistan , US who has sore to fight Terrorism all sort anywhere , and chase the AQ where ever they go , so what will they do when AQ openly Stated and Show their existence in Kashmir ( Indian Side ) , there is no doubt that AQ been used as the Flame the crisis , post any US invasion , if one has little knowledge on their mission in ME , its not hard to understand ... so AQ Existence in IoK is again strange but interesting , we have no idea that in the beautiful Mountains of Kashmir which Plot is been born , which may change the course of History , and might change the Geographic of the Region .....
@Horus @Irfan Baloch @DESERT FIGHTER @Slav Defence @Oscar
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