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Have the Chinese Created a Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile?

If people think that Df-21d can be mistakenly perceive as Nuke attack...then how about cruise missile..if U.S laught a cruise missile from sub..what prevent them to put a nuke warhead instead of conventional one.?

I read the article about DF-21D could be consider as Nuke attack...this is full of bullshit..trying to deter China from develop and release DF-21D to operation status. As what they have tried to do with Chinese aircraft carrier...initally U.S expert came to explain that Aircraft carrier is sitting duck and outdate in naval wafare...by hoping that China to take the bait..but China didn't buy it...once U.S saw that the trick failed and Varyag set sail for test...then now they're trying to sell to entire Asia about the menace of Chinese aircraft carrier.
 
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If people think that Df-21d can be mistakenly perceive as Nuke attack...then how about cruise missile..if U.S laught a cruise missile from sub..what prevent them to put a nuke warhead instead of conventional one.?
There is no way to tell. But in the case of the cruise missile, it is not detectable by the defense, so when it finally hit its target everyone will know if the attacker started a nuclear war or not. Further, the cruise missile does not have the range nor the flight characteristics as the ballistic missile.
 
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gambit - don't you know- Martian2 wants us to all be a-okay with it because china made a promise of no first n-attack - cross their heart and swear to die...:P and if that does not suffice - he assures us the we need to wait to see if a mushroom cloud has gone over the US badlands and then retaliate accordingly :D

surelyt that's not asking for much of the US :rofl:
 
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gambit - don't you know- Martian2 wants us to all be a-okay with it because china made a promise of no first n-attack - cross their heart and swear to die...:P and if that does not suffice - he assures us the we need to wait to see if a mushroom cloud has gone over the US badlands and then retaliate accordingly :D
I really do not know why these guys would even attempt. I am old enough to be their father. I lived through the Cold War as a participant. I worked on nuclear armed Victor Alert fighter-bombers. But they are trying to tell me that I should trust China when we did not give the same to the Soviets and that I do not know about MAD. Are these guys THAT out of touch with reality?
 
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The many nuclear arms reduction treaties ALL have verification processes. That means regardless of promises, all sides sent their agents to verify if the other side complied with the terms of the treaty. Sorry, but China's word on her 'no first use' is not good enough. Now answer the question: How can we tell that a ballistic missile AT LAUNCH is either X or Y?

I actually worked around nuclear bombs once. What do you have?

If a child asks, "will it be a dark night forever?"

My reply is "no." For my entire lifetime and in all of recorded history, daytime has always followed night-time. Night will only last twelve hours. Also, we have the Copernican model for solar system body dynamics and satellites to verify this fact.

The stubborn child asks again: "How do you know for sure?"

My reply, "rolls eyes."

By analogy, let's try analyzing again the question of whether China's ASBM is nuclear-armed.

1. China spent 13 years and untold billions of dollars to develop a conventional weapon to sink hostile ships near its shores. 13 years of research and development are unnecessary if China wanted to use an IRBM with a nuclear warhead.

2. China has a No First Use policy with a positive assurance.

3. MAD deters the use of Chinese nuclear weapons.

4. There is plenty of time for a U.S. counter-strike. Since China is only attacking hostile ships near its shores, the U.S. nuclear retaliatory force is safe and there is no harm in waiting to verify a nuclear attack before responding.

Finally, stop insisting that night will last forever. You dumb child.
 
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There is no way to tell. But in the case of the cruise missile, it is not detectable by the defense, so when it finally hit its target everyone will know if the attacker started a nuclear war or not. Further, the cruise missile does not have the range nor the flight characteristics as the ballistic missile.

So any missle ballistic or not that direct toward Chinese ships or China can potentially interpreted as NUKE attack...China needs to remove the first use policy...and find the way to get Nuclear parity...I think I prefer Russian's way -->"regardless of conventional attack or Nuke attack...your answer is NUKE"
 
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If a child asks, "will it be a dark night forever?"

My reply is "no." For my entire lifetime and in all of recorded history, daytime has always followed night-time. Night will only last twelve hours. Also, we have the Copernican model for solar system body dynamics and satellites to verify this fact.

The stubborn child asks again: "How do you know for sure?"

My reply, "rolls eyes."

By analogy, let's try analyzing the question of whether China's ASBM is nuclear-armed.

1. China spent 13 years and untold billions of dollars to develop a conventional weapon to sink hostile ships near its shores. 13 years of research and development is unnecessary if China wanted to use a IRBM with a nuclear warhead.

2. China has a No First Use policy with a positive assurance.

3. MAD deters the use of Chinese nuclear weapons.

4. There is plenty of time for a U.S. counter-strike. Since China is only attacking hostile ships near its shores, the U.S. nuclear retaliatory force is safe and there is no harm in waiting to verify a nuclear attack before responding.

Finally, stop insisting that night will last forever. You dumb child.
Give that to a Chinese who is gullible. Not me.

A 'no first use' policy is a symbolism. It is unverifiable. Not non-verifiable, which means there are mechanisms possible but there are obstacles in the way. But 'unverifiable' mean it is absolutely impossible to know someone's thoughts and intentions. We cannot read each other's mind. So spare everyone this crap and take it back to that 'echo chamber' that is your new playground where everyone will sheeple-like concur and furiously 'Thanked' each other over the same.

---------- Post added at 09:37 PM ---------- Previous post was at 09:35 PM ----------

So any missle ballistic or not that direct toward Chinese ships or China can potentially interpreted as NUKE attack...China needs to remove the first use policy...and find the way to get Nuclear parity...I think I prefer Russian's way -->"regardless of conventional attack or Nuke attack...your answer is NUKE"
The same can be said for aircrafts as well. So yes, China can adopt a 'mad dog' policy and respond with nuclear weapons from the start.
 
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So any missle ballistic or not that direct toward Chinese ships or China can potentially interpreted as NUKE attack...China needs to remove the first use policy...and find the way to get Nuclear parity...I think I prefer Russian's way -->"regardless of conventional attack or Nuke attack...your answer is NUKE"

Gambit is wasting everyone's time because he's not discussing any of the serious issues (e.g. China's No First Use policy with a positive assurance, Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine, safe U.S. retaliatory nuclear arsenal in a non-First Strike situation, etc.).

He is simply indulging himself in the Vietnamese fantasy of a nuke war between the U.S. and China. Simplistically, he believes China won't thoroughly nuke Vietnam in an all-out nuclear war. The fantasy continues that the U.S. and China will become devastated and Vietnam will eventually rise as an important power. It is sheer fantasy.

When you read serious responses to China's ASBM by American admirals or think-tanks, no one is advocating Gambit's absurd view that the U.S. believes an ASBM attack is a nuclear attack and therefore warrants a nuclear response at LAUNCH. It is an incredibly stupid and naive argument.

Gee, if the U.S. decides to nuke China, I wonder what the Chinese will do? Just sit there or nuke the bejesus out of the United States? MAD also deters the U.S. from nuking China at the LAUNCH of an ASBM. This is called a serious analysis, not like the other garbage that's been posted.

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U.S. Navy: We don’t fear the Chinese ASBM « Facing China

"U.S. Navy: We don’t fear the Chinese ASBM
By Tron

Eric Talmadge, “US admiral: Carrier killer won’t stop US Navy,” Washington Post, February 15, 2011

The U.S. military has had its eye on China’s “carrier killer” missile, the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile (or ASBM), for some time now, especially the U.S. Navy (understandably, since it’s advertised as a direct counter to the “crown jewel” of the U.S. fleet and a lodestar of U.S. power projection capabilities). The DoD seems to go to pretty extensive lengths to put forth an image of not fearing this weapon, for instance, this today:

However, Vice Adm. Scott van Buskirk, commander of the U.S. 7th Fleet, told the AP in an interview that the Navy does not see the much-feared weapon as creating any insurmountable vulnerability for the U.S. carriers – the Navy’s crown jewels.

“It’s not the Achilles heel of our aircraft carriers or our Navy – it is one weapons system, one technology that is out there,” Van Buskirk said in an interview this week on the bridge of the USS George Washington, the only carrier that is home-based in the western Pacific.

Admiral Van Buskirk took command of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet last fall. 7th Fleet is the naval command that would be on the front line of a potential maritime conflict with China.

It’s not surprising that the leader of this command would come forth with a strong statement discounting the ASBM – just imagine how it would look if he made a statement saying that there was no realistic defense against the ASBM. (Not exactly confidence-inspiring!)

The truth is that nobody knows for sure if the ASBM will work as advertised. There are a number of extremely high technical hurdles that the Chinese will have to solve in order to achieve a operational, fully capable weapon system. The commander of United States Pacific Command (USPACOM – two echelons of command up the chain from 7th Fleet), Admiral Robert Willard stated in an December 2010 interview that the ASBM has reached a state of development roughly equivalent to what in the U.S. defense establishment is called “initial operational capability.” This means that some units can be expected to have received the equipment and have the ability to employ it. It does not mean, however, that all the pieces of the necessary targeting systems, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) networks and associated technologies are at a sufficient state of development to fully support the weapon. Indeed. many U.S. defense analysts believe that these supporting technologies are about five years away from being fully operational. (It’s probably good to point out right here that the U.S. has been pretty poor at making accurate predictions about when various Chinese military technologies and hardware will come into service – see also the J-20 stealth aircraft, the prospects of the Chinese deploying an aircraft carrier in the near term, etc.)

In the same interview, Admiral Willard stated that a full over-water test of the ASBM system had not yet been observed. There was some speculation last summer that the PRC might do such a test in conjunction with bellicose rhetoric about U.S. naval operations in the Yellow Sea, but it never came to pass. (The U.S. naval operations were part of the combined response – along with the South Koreans – to the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan by North Korea earlier in 2010.)

I’d like to go back to what Admiral Van Buskirk said about the ASBM in the quote above – “It’s not the Achilles heel of our aircraft carriers or our Navy - it is one weapons system, one technology that is out there.” [emphasis added] Very true. But it’s one part that is very provocative, since only China has anything like it, and because it appears to be directly intended to counter a key U.S. strength in an asymmetric fashion.

In recent testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an expert from the RAND Corporation described China’s anti-access approach to be a “system-of-systems”; that China’s ability to effectively employ its joint anti-access strategy in the Western Pacific would be dependent to a great extent on establishing an effective operational system (meaning the right kinds of units, manned with people trained in the right way) to employ its anti-access capabilities (including the ASBM), and at the same time that China still needed to work on full deployment and integration of a host of battle management and ISR networks to be able to effectively target at long distance, for instance, a U.S. aircraft carrier heading toward the Taiwan Strait. I believe this is what Admiral Van Buskirk was alluding to when saying that the ASBM is but one piece of the overall system. The U.S. has to worry about all of the threats, not just one.

A final quote:

Still, van Buskirk said the Navy has no intention of altering its mission because of the new threat and will continue to operate in the seas around Japan, Korea, the Philippines and anywhere else it deems necessary.

“We won’t change these operations because of this specific technology that might be out there,” he told The AP while the USS George Washington was in its home port just south of Tokyo for repairs last week. “But we will carefully monitor and adapt to it.”

I think that to some extent the Navy (and other branches of the U.S. armed forces) have indeed altered their operations in response to threats like the Chinese ASBM (thought it is hard to prove something like this). A greater impact in this realm has almost certainly been exerted by Chinese short- and medium-range missiles, which have been a focus of particular expansion by the Chinese over the past decade (chiefly as an axe to hold over the head of Taiwan). One could in fact argue that a factor in the shift of some U.S. troops from Okinawa in the much more distant U.S. outpost of Guam has been the Chinese ballistic missile threat. Okinawa is well within range of several types of Chinese ballistic missiles and its utility as a platform to support U.S. combat operations in a China contingency could be degraded quite quickly by the wealth of missile capabilities the PRC would potentially be able to lavish upon it. No wonder the U.S. wants to be able to port an aircraft carrier in Guam and is also expanding its air power and ISR profile there."
 
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Everyone on this forum has to decide whether I'm right or shall we let Gambit continue with his nonsense.

If we are going to discuss the use of nuclear weapons, it should be based on a serious examination of the following types of issues:

1. China's No First Use policy

2. Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine

3. U.S. has ample time to determine whether China has used nuclear weapons on an U.S. carrier group

4. If China does indeed use a tactical nuclear weapon, what is an appropriate U.S. response

5. At what point will nuclear escalation cross the threshold from use of tactical nuclear weapons to the use of strategic nuclear weapons

6. At what point will China be tempted into risking a First Strike on the United States to deter conventional U.S. military power

These are all serious issues worthy of discussion.

I do not believe the insistence that the U.S. will go nuclear upon the LAUNCH of a single Chinese ASBM is a serious topic. To the contrary, it is frivolous and not worthy of a professional military forum.
 
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Gambit is wasting everyone's time ...
:lol: The news article does not address the issue of identification. Admiral Willard was talking from a position where the DF-21D is is presumed to be a specific weapon type. You have a reading comprehension problem.

Here is the difference between detection and identification:

1- I see a car.
2- I see a Ferrari.
3- I see Joe Schmoe and his wife driving a Ferrari 308.

If the goal is to identify the brand, not just the type, of car, then items 2 and 3 are identifications with increasing details. Not item 1. So the question remain: How can we tell that a ballistic missile AT LAUNCH is either X or Y?

He is simply indulging himself in the Vietnamese fantasy...
Cannot leave my origin out of this, eh? And you wonder why people consider you Chinese boys racists.
 
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If the US decides to nuke then it will be the end of the US.

Whether in the post-nuclear apocalypse who will win the conventional war, that's an open question.
 
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I'm just going to ignore Gambit and let him rant at will. I'm moving on to what I consider as a serious discussion on China's ASBM.

1. The conventional nature of China's ASBM is well-publicized. The U.S. knows it's a conventional weapon launched at a carrier group.

2. When the U.S. sails its carrier groups into Chinese waters, the U.S. assumes the risk. In law, if you choose to swim in shark-infested waters, you understand that there is a real risk of being bitten by a Chinese shark. Don't cry if China sinks a few of your carriers. You went looking for trouble. Man up!

3. The United States cannot accuse China of unfarily using a ballistic missile for conventional warfare. The U.S. is developing a similar system for its "Prompt Global Strike."

Prompt Global Strike - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Prompt Global Strike (PGS) is a United States military effort to develop a system that can deliver a precision conventional weapon strike anywhere in the world within one hour[1][2] just as an ICBM can do with a nuclear warhead.

Potential scenarios that would require a fast response, currently only available in nuclear weapons, include an impending North Korean missile launch or an opportunity to strike Al Qaeda leadership in Pakistan.[3] "Today, unless you want to go nuclear, it's measured in days, maybe weeks" until the military can launch an attack with regular forces, said Marine Corps General James Cartwright.[4]

System

The PGS system will be designed to complement Forward Deployed Forces, Air Expeditionary Forces (which can deploy within 48 hours) and Carrier battle groups (which can respond within 96 hours).[3] Possible delivery systems include:

• a rocket like those of existing ICBMs, launched from the United States mainland, or SLBMs
• an air-launched hypersonic cruise missile, such as the Boeing X-51
• launch from an orbiting space platform

As of 2010, the Air Force's prototype is a modified Minuteman III ICBM.[4] In March of 2011, the Air Force Major General David Scott stated that the service had no plans to use a sea or land based ICBM system for Prompt Global Strike, as they would be expensive to develop and potentially "dangerous." Instead, efforts will focus on a hypersonic glider.[5] The next day the Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz said that it was still an option.[6]

The warhead is expected to be a maneuverable vehicle, weighing some 2 tons including the payload, and be able to deliver a unitary penetrator, numerous smart munitions or even UAVs."
 
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I'm just going to ignore Gambit and let him rant at will. I'm moving on to what I consider as a serious discussion on China's ASBM.
Am not the one posting long copy/paste jobs.

1. The conventional nature of China's ASBM is well-publicized. The U.S. knows it's a conventional weapon launched at a carrier group.
But that is not the issue and the issue of determination is one that cannot be avoided.

2. When the U.S. sails its carrier groups into Chinese waters, the U.S. assumes the risk. In law, if you go swiming in shark-infested waters, you understand that there is a real risk of being bitten by a Chinese shark. Don't cry if China sinks a few of your carriers. You went looking for trouble. Man up!
Your own source stated that the DF-21D is far from being operational. So 'man up' and face reality.

3. The United States cannot accuse China of unfarily using a ballistic missile for conventional warfare. The U.S. is developing a similar system for its "Prompt Global Strike."
Since when has the US made such an accusation? Am wiling to be corrected.
 
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Everyone on this forum has to decide whether I'm right or shall we let Gambit continue with his nonsense.

If we are going to discuss the use of nuclear weapons, it should be based on a serious examination of the following types of issues:

1. China's No First Use policy
Here is how China have been reviewing that posture...

Workshop 279 - Papers
"No First Use of Nuclear Weapons"

London, UK, 15-17 November 2002

PAPERS

On China’s No First Use of Nuclear Weapons

Pan Zhenqiang

If Washington uses a tactical nuclear bomb against China’s military assets in a conflict at Taiwan Strait as it has alleged;
Then the US would be the one who initiated the nuclear war. In this case, China would be within rights to respond in kind.

If Washington uses conventional weapons to attack China’s ICBM silos or its nuclear infrastructures as it clearly indicated in the nuclear posture that in the U.S. new triad, conventional weapons will replace strategic weapons to perform part of its missions; or...
Say what, General? If the US attack China's nuclear assets with conventional means, China would respond with nuclear weapons?

If Washington launches a limited nuclear attack against China after it has successfully deployed a limited NMD system which is specifically aimed at coping with the possible China’s incoming warheads.
Then the US would be the one who initiated the nuclear war. In this case, China would be within rights to respond in kind.

But here China faces a problem: If the US is successful in deploying a ballistic missile defense, and have no doubts we can and will, then China will be facing the same problem as the Soviets did, namely, the rendering of one's nuclear weapons mostly useless as a deterrence. In this case, the possibility of the US using nuclear weapons decreases because currently, we can overwhelm any adversary with conventional weapons alone.

So it looks like that China's NFU policy is not that set in stone as we have been led to believe. China made public that sop and intellectual lollipop for the gullible. China made it and China can change or even abandon it at will. Major General (ret.) Pan Zhenqiang, former Director of the Institute of Strategic Studies at the PLA National Defense University, made that clear enough.
 
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