If India believed that the Rafale is the way to go, they would not run MMRCA Mk 2.
They would simply reopen negotiation with France/Dassault.
This was planned. GoI was planning to award Dassault a contract for 90 jets. But then they decided it will be too controversial. Instead they have now decided to bring the private sector in through a competitive process and are allowing the private sector to compete for orders, whereas simply handing over the contract to Dassault would have led to Reliance taking over. The new process levels the playing field.
MMRCA 2.0 is a sure sign that Rafale will not be chosen.
It's actually the opposite. MMRCA 2.0 is being designed in such a way that it will favour the Rafale, and all others will be underdogs. India follows a process of creating new requirements based on the best jet they already have, in this case Rafale.
So your jet is going to have to do really, really well if it has to beat the Rafale now.
You can actually say that MMRCA 2.0 is about choosing the Indian partner that will build the Rafale.
With IN not beeing able to use the Naval version due to wingspan, Dassault is in a loser position.
They will either cut the deck and extend the elevator or put folding wings on Rafale.
Personally, I prefer IN going for modernised Mig-29K for the carriers and F-35B for LHDs. But IN wants a CATOBAR capable fighter right from the start so they can create requirements for the 3rd carrier. Which means the IN's MRCBF is mostly a competition between Rafale and SH.
There is a good chance MRCBF may be cancelled and IN may buy some more stopgap Mig-29Ks and focus on N-Mk2 and N-AMCA instead. But this in no way affects MMRCA 2.0.
There are few issued CAG has reported with regards MMRCA Tender and I think new Govt formed after May 2019 elections will have to look into that and MMRCA 2.0 tender process will help in concluding the process and if Rafale once again become L1 then there will be much larger order is waiting, considering Mirage & Mig-29s replacements has to be done from 2030 inwards.
M-2000 and Mig-29 will be replaced with LCA Mk2. M-2000 will serve IAF until 2040.
Rafales are necessary to replace Mig-27 and 2 squadrons of Jaguars from 2025 onwards.