Apologies for delayed response and thanks for sharing the more detailed document published in 2008.
I am posting two sections of the report below which show that Gwadar also offers a significant potential in context of China, which is not realizable without significant infrastructure development in rest of Pakistan.
Luckily most of the projects falling under the ambit of CPEC are going to provide this necessary infrastructure.
This aspect was not seriously considered in the forecasts due to the lack of a committed infrastructure development to realize Gwadar's potential in terms of significant Pak-China transit trade, specifically pertaining to oil and gas import.
P.S. Having said all of this, Pakistan has to get this right. The commercial viability is also our responsibility and we have to work hard to make it happen and help strengthen this mutually beneficial relationship.
I hope and pray that this is the case.
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2.80 Overall, while most discussions on the potential for Gwadar port highlight transit trade with Central Asian countries, our assessment coincides with the findings of the 50-year master plan. Demand forecasts for long-distance transit trade through Gwadar port should be cautious.
However, there is one important caveat.
China, with its vast and rapidly growing economy, may offer greater potential for transit trade (Box 2.9). Presently, China imports oil from the Middle East and transports it through a long route around its east coast. Gwadar, placed near the strategic energy traffic hub of the Straits of Homuz and in closer proximity than Iran’s rival ports, could serve as China’s energy transfer station, especially once the port has adequate road and rail linkages with the Karakoram Range in northern Pakistan. Oil and gas could be shipped from the Gulf in one day, and from Chinese oilfields in Sudan in three days to a dedicated setup of storage and refining facilities at Gwadar, and then be transported via land route to China’s Xinjiang province.
Box 2.9: Gwadar as China’s energy hub?
In 2006 during a Pakistan visit of the President to China, the two countries agreed in principle to set up a Gwadar Port Energy Zone, and a China-Pakistan Energy Corridor for the provision of oil products and gas supply from Gwadar. The specific steps outlined in the agreement included designating Gwadar as China’s port access to the waters of the Arabian sea; the setting up of a major refinery at Gwadar with 21 million tons of capacity (roughly twice Pakistan’s present total refining capacity); development of an oil tank farm with 1 million tons of storage capacity; setting up of LNG terminals and storage centers for natural gas; and improvement of road networks, such as the widening of the Karakoram Highway for the transportation of oil products by tankers. There were also discussions regarding the establishment of a Chinese Industrial Zone with significant Chinese private investments in steel, cement, and oil refining and storage. These bilateral discussions with China are at a very early stage and there are at present no concrete agreements have been reached on the specifics and the timelines involved.
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