Gwadar port to be operational by year end :Chinese official

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Sir why u want to shatter their dream

Leading indian scientists, military officials and politicians were saying exactly the same thing with regards to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program pre May 1998. They claimed that Pakistan could NEVER EVER have nuclear weapons with or without Chinese assistance. We all know what happened to that indian claim. Just as then, so is now.

There are only 2 superpowers in the world. China and america. No other nation on earth comes close to these 2. If one of these superpowers, China is investing in at least $46 billion in Pakistan, then there must be a pertinent reason for this that the wrist slitters and arm chair analysts on pdf don't now about. If that same superpower is saying that CPEC will be a success then the chances are that it will be. The Chinese have the credentials and authority to claim as such. Not the randoms on pdf who have not achieved superpower or economic success.

 

[VCheng]

My aim was to point out the irrelevance of the transit costs to Chongqing shared by yourself when considering Xinjiang as a major component of this strategic project.

Xinjiang is really far away from east coast China and the journey spans extremely large provinces with tough terrain to boot. The costs over land will be significant even from east coast China and are mostly ignored in the shared example due to the point of reference being Chongqing which is very close to east coast.
Once you add in cost of transportation from Chongqing to Xinjiang, it shall go up.
Conversely the cost from Gwadar to Xinjiang will be significantly lesser than Gwadar to Chongqing.

P.S. Cargo from Xinjiang is not considered inconsequential in your referred post 142.

Cargo from Xinjiang "may have limited potential". May. Limited. It is pretty inconsequential. That is the formal and official report by the consultant hired by the Gornamint of Pakistan. Further, the cost analysis I quoted above is a few years out of date, but still pretty robust, unless to wish to provide some newer references contradicting the above.

@Syed.Ali.Haider
Why you try so hard to play devil's advocate. You are not an economist so your analysis about this project is as good as my analysis of a person in bad health. Even if it's not going to be successful we Pakistanis should be last ones to complain about the prosperity of a foreign investment in a barren piece of land except for the legends we are hearing from generations about it's strategical importance.

It is not my analysis Sir. i have provided due references.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Please note

I actually see massive potential in this economic corridor, Note "potential". However whether Pakistan can realize this potential is another matter. For that to happen few things need to be sorted out. So my take is that in theory this economic corridor offers massive scope. Thus the hype is to degree justified.

You on the other hand feel that the entire concept is flawed and has no scope to begin with. Is that correct reading of your thoughts?

 

[VCheng]

I actually see massive potential in this economic corridor, Note "potential". However whether Pakistan can realize this potential is another matter. For that to happen few things need to be sorted out. So my take is that in theory this economic corridor offers massive scope. Thus the hype is to degree justified.

You on the other hand feel that the entire concept is flawed and has no scope to begin with. Is that correct reading of your thoughts?

It is not what I feel. It is what the officially solicited report says, Sir. What I find curious are the (deliberately?) false impressions being given off by the Pakistani side that are at odds with the record and analysis.

Take a look at this map and consider the implications:

This paragraph is important too, for it bluntly states: "The emergence of Gwadar as industry cluster will remain uncertain for a long time..."

 

[Sully3]

I like Singapore better, but honestly. The mentality is not there.

I have no doubt that once the oil and gas runs out dubai will be swallowed up by the sand dunes again.

You have no idea about how Dubai makes money if you think it has oil and gas. Dubai has zero oil or gas. 20 years it started making money as a transit hub for the entire middle east, now its totally dependant on tourism and the money spent in its countless shopping malls. There is a reason they are making the world biggest shopping malls year after year and they are jammed packed with tourists.
As for emirates airlines it gave Dubai a global face, but it was highly supported by government money hence why it continuously offering the cheapest priced tickets and excellent service. Eithad and Qatar airlines also followed the same model and now have over taken Emirates as better airlines.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

@Syed.Ali.Haider Do I take it that you think the whole economic corridor is flawed at a conceptual level? Please confirm.

Btw unlike many have enormous respect for those who play "devils advocate". It is this type of thinking that sharpens ideas or exposes flaws. It is form of stress testing.

Anyway thanks for the info you posted. You do of course realize that the primary driver behind Gwadar is Western China and not Central Asia? CARs/Afg would be supplemental. Even then the distances given in the chart do not preclude Gwadar as all of ports cited are within similar range.The differances are nominal and insufficient to overwhelm other factors like for example geopolitics or for example the famous US distaste for Iran. You saw example of that when Pakistan blocked NATO supplies US could have used Chah Bahar but instead resorted to fly or dragging supplies across the entire Eurasian landmass from Vilnius, Moscow, Volgograd, Tashkent and across the Amu darya. This probably cost three times more.

 

[VCheng]

@Syed.Ali.Haider Do I take it that you think the whole economic corridor is flawed at a conceptual level? Please confirm.

Btw unlike many have enormous respect for those who play "devils advocate". It is this type of thinking that sharpens ideas or exposes flaws. It is form of stress testing.

Anyway thanks for the info you posted. You do of course realize that the primary driver behind Gwadar is Western China and not Central Asia? CARs/Afg would be supplemental. Even then the distances given in the chart do not preclude Gwadar as all of ports cited are within similar range.The differances are nominal and insufficient to overwhelm other factors like for example geopolitics or for example the famous US distaste for Iran. You saw example of that when Pakistan blocked NATO supplies US could have used Chah Bahar but instead resorted to fly or dragging supplies across the entire Eurasian landmass from Vilnius, Moscow, Volgograd, Tashkent and across the Amu darya. This probably cost three times more.

Sir, there is no doubt that Gawadar is important for Pakistan as its next major port. But Little's own report clearly states that CAS trade has little potential and Xinjiang may have limited potential. How can that be the primary driver of Gawadar's activity?

 

[risingsinga]

Sorry may be my comment is a little off topic. How can this port can benefit trade between Pakistan and Singapore? I think Pak-Singa can have a lot more of trade.

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Sorry may be my comment is a little off topic. How can this port can benefit trade between Pakistan and Singapore? I think Pak-Singa can have a lot more of trade.

The connectivity which is going on along with Gwadar port can surely help Singaporean business men as you can trade with Iran, Turkey, CARs, China and even Russia probably through land.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Sir, there is no doubt that Gawadar is important for Pakistan as its next major port. But Little's own report clearly states that CAS trade has little potential and Xinjiang may have limited potential. How can that be the primary driver of Gawadar's activity?

View attachment 301065

Imagination is more important than knowledge. CPEC brings massive investments on power generation, transport, industrial parks etc. besides the development of Gwadar port. For your arguments' sake, even if it turns out to be a massive failure, at the least they tried. If this CPEC staff has so little potential then why is India hell bent to hinder it ?!?

 

[All-Green]

Cargo from Xinjiang "may have limited potential". May. Limited. It is pretty inconsequential. That is the formal and official report by the consultant hired by the Gornamint of Pakistan. Further, the cost analysis I quoted above is a few years out of date, but still pretty robust, unless to wish to provide some newer references contradicting the above.



It is not my analysis Sir. i have provided due references.

Please share the date this report was published.
If possible, do also share a link where i can access this report.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Benign Persona]

the only thing enough for me regarding CPEC is a succes is that our neighbors are all butthurt trying and directed all their efforts to make it a failure

 

[VCheng]

Please share the date this report was published.
If possible, do also share a link where i can access this report.

Thanks in advance.

I will not be posting any more Sir. Why? Because I am being threatened:

From now on, every time you post a low quality reply or comment, I will be givng you a negative rating, considering this your only warning.

Adios!

 

[Salik]

This is my last reply, @Oscar is right, I won't waste anymore of my time.

Its my turn

Has anyone ever presented an analysis of what might go through Gawadar, and the economic feasibility thereof?

Initially sand and stones will go because China and Pakistan are going to build pyramids ten times bigger than those in Egypt. Then tourism!!

By the time roads are being built there are surely other project and MOUs being signed and homework is being done side by side so when the routes are opened you know whats exactly next.

One thing we are ignoring is time factor. By sea route one gets material in say two weeks at the cost of rupees twenty per unit. But through alternate route same material is gotten in one week at the cost of say twenty two even then time is reduced by 50% which counts alot and can be converted into productivity.

 

[All-Green]

I will not be posting any more Sir. Why? Because I am being threatened:

I do not recall threatening you my friend so do share the report with me.
Just wanted the information to take our discussion forward.
I shall review and comment further.