Growth to hit 11-year peak, (NAC)-Pakistan

[somebozo]

How much loans have been borrowed in these 11 years? What is the current debt on Pakistan?

Pakistan need to cut importing as much as it can. Exports should be double of what a poor country like Pakistan imports.

There is huge imbalance of trade with Japan because our incompetent auto sector is unable to produce viable products..imports cannot be cut down without competitive local industry and encouraging exporting countries to set up local base. Socialist style enforcement of localization does not work.

Free market and free capital is vital for economic progress.

 

[Sharpshooter12]

There is huge imbalance of trade with Japan because our incompetent auto sector is unable to produce viable products..imports cannot be cut down without competitive local industry and encouraging exporting countries to set up local base. Socialist style enforcement of localization does not work.

Free market and free capital is vital for economic progress.

Exactly sir, curtailing imports is no longer possible in this day and age. Besides that will only affect the everyday consumer. The only solution is increasing our own exports and improving sectors like automobile(more than $1 billion in imports), oil and gas exploration and refining (with just $2 Billion in crude and more than $6 billion in refined petroleum) so we can be less dependent on imports. Automobile sector is hopeless but Oil & Gas has shown tremendous growth in the last 5 years, for example we discovered 5.4tcf natural gas during this period while during the same period Pakistan consumed 5.2tcf of natural gas, so our overall reserves have not depleted, but there is still room for improvement.

We need to improve capacity of our refineries. I am ok with importing crude as we don't produce enough of our own but such a large bill for refined petroleum is troubling. Take India for example, their overall energy import bill is more than $100 billion but only less than $4 billion is for refined petroleum, while we import around $11 billion worth of fuel and more than $6 billion is refined.

Since my childhood and perhaps the childhood of my father before me, the commodities that we export have remained the same, cotton and its products linen, Knit non-knit suits etc(in total making nearly 60% of our total exports), rice, leather, Wazirabad ke medical instruments and Sialkot ka sports equipment. We all read that in Pak studies and it has not changed. We haven't explored new sectors and haven't diversified at all.

The only silver lining I can see in this trade deficit is that nearly 22% of the imports are that of machinery, which means it will help in improving infrastructure and generating more growth, of course it has something to do with CPEC so perhaps we will see the import bill go down once the required machinery for these projects has been imported.

 

[American Pakistani]

There is huge imbalance of trade with Japan because our incompetent auto sector is unable to produce viable products..imports cannot be cut down without competitive local industry and encouraging exporting countries to set up local base. Socialist style enforcement of localization does not work.

Free market and free capital is vital for economic progress.

Any imports in automobile sector should come with heavy taxation. Companies should be encouraged or forced to setup plants in Pakistan and export cars from Pakistan. Japanese companies have looted the country for so long, thanks to Pakistani politicians.

Furthermore, Pakistan should go for electric vehicles and increase it's electricity generation. This will cut the import bill in oil sector.

 

[HariPrasad]

This is really a good news. Good luck.

 

[somebozo]

Any imports in automobile sector should come with heavy taxation. Companies should be encouraged or forced to setup plants in Pakistan and export cars from Pakistan. Japanese companies have looted the country for so long, thanks to Pakistani politicians.

Furthermore, Pakistan should go for electric vehicles and increase it's electricity generation. This will cut the import bill in oil sector.

Again..it is consumer right to choose what they want..taxes are already high..taxes cannot be used as govt backed extortion..it will lead to shifting of wealth abroad. Better to build local industry for competing against exports. If anything has to be banned, it must be purchase of expensive weapons with hard earned forex..as it is public right first to enjoy imported goods..

 

[HariPrasad]

Out of brain storming and discussion of appropriate economic models for the countries like India (Applicable to almost all subcontinent countries) has emerged. We need to implement those models in sub-continent. It can largely be based on making village clusters an independent economic unit by and large totally independent of outside world producing everything they need. This largely looked impossible some time ago but now with the development which has taken place in recent years, it seems very much possible. I have some very very exciting stories to tell which can be a role model for the development of subcontinent rural areas.
How a small town of Gujarat became India’s leading per capita income town and how Trishur emerged as a export destination of textile. How Rajkot emerged as a trade hub with huge manufacturing of Diesel engine parts and transformed the economy of city and surrounding villages. These are community based economic development models. How Ludhiyana emerged as a giant manufacturer of cloths and how surat became a diamond and textile hub of India and world. How dairy business in Annand transformed the lives of millions and make area very rich. These are all highly exciting models but not studied by IIMs and other top rating institutes. I want to study them so that Indian way of development can be explored which does not fit into western Economic model and has the capability to develop our masses highly economic terms. This has excited me a lot as a student of Stratagic management and economy. If I study any case, I will share with you guys. Infact, I have so many things to share which can develop our sub-continent very fast and we can eliminate poverty in one decade. We must stop looking at western model for growth.

 

[American Pakistani]

Again..it is consumer right to choose what they want..taxes are already high..taxes cannot be used as govt backed extortion..it will lead to shifting of wealth abroad. Better to build local industry for competing against exports. If anything has to be banned, it must be purchase of expensive weapons with hard earned forex..as it is public right first to enjoy imported goods..

Well that is your opinion and I respectfully disagree with it. There is zero need of importing cars when you have automobiles being manufactured/assembled in Pakistan. And increase in electric goods is necessassary to save Pakistan's forex from mammoth import bills of oils.

 

[somebozo]

Well that is your opinion and I respectfully disagree with it. There is zero need of importing cars when you have automobiles being manufactured/assembled in Pakistan. And increase in electric goods is necessassary to save Pakistan's forex from mammoth import bills of oils.

going by your logic..US should ban import of vehicle from Germany, China should ban vehicle import from everywhere..this is not how the free market global economy works..too immature to debate anything.

 

[Moon]

This should have been done 2 years before the government started CPEC. In that case, Pakistan would have been in a different level of industrialization. But that will reduce billions of $$$$ of current import and makes many outside companies cry for money. GOP did this on purpose and right now some outside companies are prospering instead on Pakistani companies.

Never too late, I just hope the elections fought now will be to boost Pakistani economy rather than on discrete improvements.

 

[ziaulislam]

1. exports are picking up due to better power supply, rice revolution in sindh, small scale manufacturing, GPS +status
2. imports are picking up due to more oil price, good point is that oil production is expected to triple due to major finding and prospective in KPK, it already double in last 4 years, gas situation is trouble some though
3. govt needs to give export incentives, so far there are negative incentives for exports (i.e tax refunds are held)
4. quality control is needed through stricter oversight or association
5. i expect CAD crisis to resolve in next 2-3 years unless foolish polcies like what PPPP or PML N did(Ishaq Dar) happens again, this was artifically created by such polcies
6. growth should pick u p but high growth (>7) will not happen due to lack of reforms in ease of doing business, payment, banking sector
7. since Ishaq dar left the new team atleast has good policies on paper..i hope they keep the current team

 

[Kabira]

Stupid Pakistani population is even importing vegetables which are available locally. We need agriculture reforms to cut import bill and also cater to growing burger middle class in urban areas who will eat even shit if its imported. Need to impose more taxes on food imports.


$1.4bn spent on imported foodstuffs

KARACHI: While China has shown interest in investing in Pakistan’s agriculture sector to meet its growing demand of agri products, Pakistan has ended up spending $1.37 billion on the imports of vegetables in the first half of the current fiscal year.

The State Bank on Friday issued updated details of imports which rose to $21.3bn in the first half FY18. Surprisingly, a major part of these imports are agriculture and dairy products — items which are easily available in the country. The imports of these products highlights the country’s lavish spending which could be easily avoided to save foreign exchange.

The six-month spending in the imports of vegetable products was 29 per cent higher than the corresponding period ($1.067bn) of the previous fiscal.

Under the head of vegetable products, Pakistan spent 424.7 million alone for the imports of edible vegetables during the first half of FY18, a 51 per cent increase compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year. Such a big amount of vegetables are being imported due to low trust on local produce which may carry huge doses of pesticides and other chemicals. However, some imported vegetables are not produced in the country at all.

Despite China’s interest in Pakistan’s vegetable produce, the country has been unable to exploit the potential of this opportunity and seems unprepared so far. Pakistan is considered a country rich in fruits but still it spent $74.9 million to import edible fruits and nuts during the first half of the ongoing fiscal. Last year imports under this head were worth $49m.

The country spent $64.6m for import of dairy products, eggs, honey and edible products while another $23.9m was spent on the import of live animals.

During the first six months of the current fiscal year, the country spent $312.5m on the import of coffee, tea, whiteners and spices — the second largest spending in the food and food products sector. For import of animal or vegetable fats, oils and cleavage products $908.9m was spent.

The country also spent $500.9m for import of oil seeds and ‘oleaginous fruit’. An oleaginous fruit is the part of a plant that is used to produce a vegetable oil. It can be a fruit (olives), seed (sesame) or nut (walnuts).

Published in Dawn, March 10th, 2018

 

[American Pakistani]

going by your logic..US should ban import of vehicle from Germany, China should ban vehicle import from everywhere..this is not how the free market global economy works..too immature to debate anything.

Pakistan is not US or China. Look at Bangladesh how they build reserves. You want Pakistan to keep borrowing loans and spending on imports? Think about the country as whole instead of your personal gains.